基于马尔科夫模型的郑州市城市热岛效应分析及预测

发布时间：2018-06-23 02:06

本文选题：热岛效应 + 马尔可夫模型　；参考：《水土保持研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：基于4期TM遥感影像数据对郑州市热环境的空间动态变化过程进行了分析,并应用马尔科夫模型预测了郑州市未来9年的热环境发展趋势。结果表明:2000—2013年,郑州市热岛效应随着城市发展方向的移动,四环以内的热岛类型正趋于恶化,三环内热岛类型由次低温区、中温区向高温区转移,三环至四环区域内,热岛类型由次低温区向中温区转移,四环以外东南部受到工厂外迁引起的地表温度升高,其余大部仍处于次低温区。未来9年,在现有人为因素干扰的情况下,郑州市四环内的热岛效应可能会加剧,截至2022年,低温区、次低温区、中温区、高温区、超高温区的热岛类型面积比例分别为0.41%,21.01%,68.96%,9.19%,0.38%。植被减少及建筑物增多是热岛效应增强的主要原因,植被以及水域具有很好的"冷岛"效应,对城市热岛效应具有明显的消减作用。
[Abstract]:Based on the TM remote sensing image data of 4 periods, the spatial dynamic change process of thermal environment in Zhengzhou is analyzed, and the trend of thermal environment development in Zhengzhou in the next 9 years is predicted by using Markov model. The results show that from 2000 to 2013, the heat island effect of Zhengzhou City moved along with the development direction of the city, and the type of heat island within the fourth ring is getting worse. The type of heat island in the third ring is transferred from the sub-low temperature region, the middle temperature zone to the high temperature area, and the third ring to the fourth ring region. The heat island type is transferred from the sub-low temperature region to the middle temperature area. The surface temperature of the southeast of the fourth Ring Road is increased by the factory migration, and the rest is still in the sub-low temperature region. In the next nine years, the heat island effect in the fourth Ring Ring of Zhengzhou City may be intensified in the coming nine years. By 2022, the proportions of the heat island type area in the low temperature region, the sub-low temperature region, the middle temperature region, the high temperature area and the ultra-high temperature area are 0.411m21.01ng 68.96n9.19 and 0.380.38, respectively. The decrease of vegetation and the increase of buildings are the main reasons for the enhancement of the heat island effect. Vegetation and water have a good "cold island" effect, which has a significant effect on reducing the urban heat island effect.
【作者单位】：河南农业大学林学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(31600579);国家自然科学基金(41401206) 河南省科技攻关(162102310093) 河南农业大学博士科研启动项目(30600407) 河南省交通厅项目(2013J49);河南省交通厅项目(2014Z06)
【分类号】：X16

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