南京信息工程大学空气质量模式预报系统的技术研究

发布时间：2018-06-23 18:07

本文选题：空气质量预报系统 + WRF-Chem模式　；参考：《南京信息工程大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：鉴于我国雾霾天气频发、空气污染事件导致的公众健康、区域能见度及对典型行业的不利影响日益严重,环境气象监测预报预警技术面临着急切需求。基于我校在中国大气科学和大气环境科学的教学研究地位,亟待开展空气质量模式研发,建立我们南京信息工程大学空气质量预报系统,为我国气象,环境,电力,航空和交通运输行业提供环境气象预报预警技术服务。本文主要工作是采用计算机自动化信息技术构建南京信息工程大学空气质量模式预报系统及预报业务平台。主要关键技术环节包括1)气象(NCEP-GFS)和大气污染物(MOZART)资料前处理以及大气污染物排放源清单细化,以准备模式的气象和化学初始和边界场；2)气象-化学耦合数值模式72小时运行；3)空气质量预报产品后处理,研制了南京信息工程大学空气质量预报系统网站,网站实现了江苏省空气质量(PM2.5, PM10, O3, SO2, NO2, CO 以及 AQI和大气能见度)的未来72小时预报并被应用于江苏省环保厅雾霾预报预警业务。同时利用shell脚本,实现了整个空气质量预报系统自动化运行,并将可视化预警信息和预报产品向用户展示。鉴于现有的排放源清单的分辨率较低,难以准确的模拟南京地区乃至江苏各地区的大气污染物变化,本文首先介绍了大气污染物排放源细化方案,按照人口分布数据和大气污染物的观测资料对排放源进行空间和时间的再分配和精细化处理；其次,基于中尺度大气化学模式WRF-Chem的物理化学过程参数化方案,优化了适用于江苏省区域的大气边界层,云降水和大气化学反应机制方案等,建立了江苏省域空气质量预报模型；最后展示了整个空气质量预报平台的技术流程。为了评估2014南京青年奥运会期间的污染排放源防控效果,本文初步分析了青奥会期间及其前后(2014年8月-10月)南京信息工程大学空气质量模式系统预报产品。将预报产品中逐小时空气质量预报量(PM10, PM2.5, O3, CO, NO2, SO2)与其观测数据(http://www.pm25.in/api_doc)进行对比研究,结果表明各要素模拟值在青奥会期间(2014年8月16-25日)模拟值较观测值明显偏高,尤其是受工地排放和建筑扬尘影响的PM2.5和PM10浓度的模拟结果,而8月初和9月末各要素的模拟值都接近于观测值。在排放源并未考虑青奥减排的前提下,实际观测浓度低于模拟浓度说明政府在青奥会期间的减排措施行之有效,减排效果明显。
[Abstract]:In view of frequent smog weather, public health caused by air pollution events, regional visibility and adverse effects on typical industries, environmental meteorological monitoring, forecasting and warning technology is facing urgent demand. Based on our university's teaching and research status in atmospheric science and atmospheric environmental science in China, it is urgent to develop the air quality model and establish the air quality forecasting system of Nanjing University of Information Engineering, which can serve the weather, environment and electricity of our country. Aviation and transportation industries provide technical services for environmental weather forecasting and early warning. The main work of this paper is to use the computer automation information technology to construct the air quality model forecast system of Nanjing University of Information Engineering and its operational platform. The main key technical links include 1) pretreatment of meteorological (NCEP-GFS) and atmospheric pollutants (MOZART) data and refinement of atmospheric pollutant emission source inventory to prepare the meteorological and chemical initial and boundary field of the model) coupled meteorological and chemical numerical model for 72 hours; 3) the air quality prediction system website of Nanjing University of Information Engineering has been developed by post-processing of air quality forecasting products. The site has implemented 72 hours air quality forecast (PM2.5, PM10, O3, SO2, NO2, CO, AQI and atmospheric visibility) in Jiangsu Province and has been applied to the early warning of smog forecast in Jiangsu Environmental Protection Department. At the same time, the shell script is used to realize the automatic operation of the whole air quality forecasting system, and the visual early warning information and forecast products are displayed to the users. In view of the low resolution of the existing emission source inventory, it is difficult to accurately simulate the changes of atmospheric pollutants in Nanjing area and even in Jiangsu Province. Spatial and temporal redistribution and refinement of emission sources based on population distribution data and observational data of atmospheric pollutants are carried out. Secondly, parameterization schemes for physical and chemical processes based on the mesoscale atmospheric chemistry model WRF-Chem are used. The atmospheric boundary layer cloud precipitation and atmospheric chemical reaction mechanism are optimized and the air quality prediction model in Jiangsu Province is established. Finally the technical flow of the whole air quality prediction platform is presented. In order to evaluate the effect of pollution emission prevention and control during the 2014 Nanjing Youth Olympic Games, this paper preliminarily analyzed the air quality model system forecast products of Nanjing University of Information Engineering (NISE) during the period of the Youth Olympic Games and before and after the Youth Olympic Games (Aug-Oct 2014). The hourly air quality prediction (PM10, PM2.5, O3, CO, NO2, SO2) in the forecast products is compared with its observation data (http://www.pm25.in/api_doc). The results show that the simulated values of each element are obviously higher than the observed values during the period of the Olympic Committee (16-25 August 2014). In particular, the simulated results of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations affected by site emissions and building dust are close to the observed values in early August and late September. Under the premise that emission sources do not consider the emission reduction of the Olympic Games, the actual observed concentration is lower than the simulated concentration, which shows that the emission reduction measures of the government during the period of the Olympic Games are effective and the emission reduction effect is obvious.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X51

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