贸易开放如何影响PM2.5——基于淮河两岸供暖政策差异的因果效应研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 11:08

本文选题：贸易开放 + PM.　；参考：《管理评论》2017年05期

【摘要】：本文以中国2013年实施新空气质量标准的74个城市横截面数据为样本,研究贸易开放对PM2.5排放的因果影响程度。为了解决由于污染排放对贸易开放的反向因果偏误,本文使用了Blanchard和Perotti提出的两阶段工具变量方法解决内生性。在第一阶段PM2.5的工具变量选择上,考虑到中国以淮河为界对两岸城市实施不同的集中供暖政策,而集中供暖采用的煤炭燃烧是导致PM2.5排放的主要原因之一,因此选择了各城市距离淮河一线的纬度差作为PM2.5排放的代理变量。实证结果表明PM2.5排放增加会导致外贸依存度显著降低。运用第一阶段回归的残差,作为第二阶段中贸易开放的工具变量来解决反向因果效应,结果显示贸易开放会造成环境质量的恶化。机制分析表明,贸易开放之所以导致环境恶化主要是污染行业的出口造成的。
[Abstract]:Based on the cross-sectional data of 74 cities that implemented the new air quality standards in China in 2013, this paper studies the causal impact of trade liberalization on PM2.5 emissions. In order to solve the negative causal bias caused by pollution emissions to trade openness, this paper uses the two-stage instrumental variable method proposed by Blanchard and Perotti to solve the problem of endogenicity. With regard to the choice of tool variables for PM2.5 in the first stage, considering that China implements different central heating policies for cities on both sides of the strait with the Huaihe River as the boundary, the coal burning used in central heating is one of the main causes of PM2.5 emissions. Therefore, the latitude difference between the cities and the Huaihe River is chosen as the agent of PM2.5 emission. The empirical results show that the increase of PM2.5 emissions will significantly reduce the degree of dependence on foreign trade. The residual of the first stage regression is used as the tool variable of trade opening in the second stage to solve the reverse causality effect. The result shows that the trade opening will lead to the deterioration of environmental quality. The mechanism analysis shows that the environmental deterioration caused by open trade is mainly caused by the exports of polluting industries.
【作者单位】：山东师范大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71503281)
【分类号】：F299.24;X51

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