基于灰色系统理论的制造业废气排放周期分析及趋势预测
发布时间：2018-07-13 14:08
【摘要】：利用1991—2014年中国制造业的有关环境数据和灰色关联改变点算法,搜索出了废气排放总量增长率时间序列中的改变点;利用GM(1,1)模型,预测了未来废气排放量增长率趋势。结果发现中国制造业废气排放总量增长率趋势时间序列的改变点位于2001年和2006年,排放周期划分为三个阶段:1992—2001年、2002—2006年、2007—2014年,并且制造业废气排放增长率趋势会由暂时性的小幅上升过渡为持续下降,其原因在于环境规制政策的持续加强。
[Abstract]:Using the relevant environmental data of China's manufacturing industry from 1991 to 2014 and the grey relational change point algorithm, the change point in the time series of the total emission volume growth rate is searched. The trend of the future emission growth rate is predicted by using the GM (1,1) model. The result shows that the time series of the total emission growth rate trend of China's manufacturing industry is changed. The change point is located in 2001 and 2006. The emission cycle is divided into three stages: from 1992 to 2001, 2002 to 2006, 2007 to 2014, and the growth rate trend of manufacturing industry exhaust emissions will be from temporary slight increase to continuous decline, which is due to the continued strengthening of environmental regulation policy.
【作者单位】： 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“环境规制下我国制造业转型升级研究”(71173116) 江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2012JDXM012) 江苏省高校哲学社会科学优秀创新团队项目(2015ZSTD006)
【分类号】：X701
[Abstract]:Using the relevant environmental data of China's manufacturing industry from 1991 to 2014 and the grey relational change point algorithm, the change point in the time series of the total emission volume growth rate is searched. The trend of the future emission growth rate is predicted by using the GM (1,1) model. The result shows that the time series of the total emission growth rate trend of China's manufacturing industry is changed. The change point is located in 2001 and 2006. The emission cycle is divided into three stages: from 1992 to 2001, 2002 to 2006, 2007 to 2014, and the growth rate trend of manufacturing industry exhaust emissions will be from temporary slight increase to continuous decline, which is due to the continued strengthening of environmental regulation policy.
【作者单位】： 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“环境规制下我国制造业转型升级研究”(71173116) 江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2012JDXM012) 江苏省高校哲学社会科学优秀创新团队项目(2015ZSTD006)
【分类号】：X701
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