城市扩展过程对湿地影响的情景模拟研究——以河北怀来为例

发布时间：2018-08-14 19:13

【摘要】：在复杂多变的环境下,情景模拟法因其能考虑突发干扰的影响并能聚焦长期规划而表现出突出的优势。怀来是北京重要的水源地和环境保护屏障,2022年北京-张家口冬奥会的筹办将可能加快怀来的经济发展和城市扩展,进而对湿地的空间压力产生重要影响。因此,论文利用情景模拟法,结合城市扩展模型(land use scenario dynamics-urban,LUSD-urban)和湿地空间压力模型,模拟了趋势外推、城市规划和冬奥会3种情景下怀来未来城市扩展对湿地的空间压力。结果显示城市扩展导致怀来湿地空间压力增大,湿地平均压力从2000年的0.399增加到2013年的0.439,增长了10.03%。同时,湿地空间压力高于0.5的像元比例从6.73%增加到17.42%。3种情景下,2013—2030年怀来的湿地空间压力将增长0.002~0.005。冬奥会的举办将为怀来湿地带来更大的空间压力,冬奥会情景下湿地压力的热点区面积最大,为83.74 km~2,是3种情景下共有热点区面积的1.44倍,新保安镇、土木镇和沙城镇的非城市用地面临的空间压力较大。因此,怀来县在未来制定城市规划时应充分考虑县内湿地生态系统,在保护湿地资源的基础上有效促进经济的发展。
[Abstract]:In the complex and changeable environment, the scenario simulation method has a prominent advantage because it can consider the impact of sudden interference and focus on long-term planning. Huailai is an important water source and environmental protection barrier in Beijing. Preparations for the 2022 Beijing-Zhangjiakou Winter Olympic Games will probably speed up Huailai's economic development and urban expansion, thus exerting an important impact on the spatial pressure on wetlands. Therefore, using scenario simulation method, combined with urban expansion model (land use scenario dynamics-urban-LUSD-urban) and wetland spatial pressure model, this paper simulates the spatial pressure of urban expansion on wetland under three scenarios: trend extrapolation, urban planning and winter Olympics. The results showed that the spatial pressure of Huailai wetland increased from 0.399 in 2000 to 0.439 in 2013, an increase of 10.03. At the same time, the spatial pressure of wetland increased from 6.73% to 17.42.3%, and the spatial pressure of wetland increased from 0.002% to 0.005% in 2013-2030. The holding of the Winter Olympic Games will bring greater spatial pressure to the Huailai wetland. Under the Winter Olympics scenario, the area of the wetland pressure hot spot area is the largest, which is 83.74 km2, 1.44 times the area of the common hot spot area under the three scenarios. The space pressure of non-urban land in civil town and sand town is great. Therefore, when making urban planning in the future, Huailai county should take full account of the wetland ecosystem in the county, and promote economic development effectively on the basis of protecting wetland resources.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室人与环境系统可持续研究中心;北京师范大学地理科学学部减灾与应急管理研究院;北京师范大学地理科学学部资源学院土地资源与区域发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41501092)~~
【分类号】：TU984;X37

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