兰州市主城区居民PM2.5及其相关PAHs暴露评估与健康效应评价研究
发布时间：2018-09-12 20:34
【摘要】：目的:大气污染治理是一项复杂而系统性工程,兰州市主城区从2012年入冬开始全面实施“煤改气”工程,2013年下半年空气质量自动监测系统建设完毕并陆续投入使用,大气细颗粒物(PM2.5)被纳入监测范围。因此本研究拟对兰州市主城区2013年至2016年大气PM2.5浓度变化情况进行分析,评估主城区居民PM2.5暴露情况,并对PM2.5暴露所致的人群健康效应及健康经济效益进行分析;同时,对2015年至2016年PM2.5中多环芳烃(PAHs)含量进行检测,评估当前主城区居民PAHs暴露水平,并对其所致的健康风险及暴露组成、来源进行分析,为下一步的治理工作提供依据。方法:(1)收集兰州市主城区2013-2016年PM2.5监测数据,计算主城区居民PM2.5人口加权暴露浓度,对“煤改气”工程后,主城区居民PM2.5的暴露变化情况进行描述性分析,根据《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095-2012)中PM2.5暴露浓度的二级限值对主城区居民的暴露水平进行评价,利用整合暴露-反应(IER)模型评估主城区居民PM2.5暴露的健康效应,再采用意愿支付(WTP)法对降低主城区居民PM2.5暴露水平所带来的健康经济学效益进行分析。(2)采集兰州市主城区居民PM2.5暴露样本,用气相色谱-质谱联用仪(GC-MS)分析样本中PAHs的含量,用秩和(Mann-Whitney U)检验分析冬季采暖对空气中PAHs含量的影响,采用累积毒性等效剂量(TEQ)法定量表征主城区居民PAHs呼吸暴露的健康危害,并对其所致的终身致癌风险和期望寿命损失情况进行评估。结果:(1)兰州市主城区居民2013-2016年PM2.5人口加权暴露浓度为57.5μg/m~3,介于11~457μg/m~3之间。其中,日均暴露浓度合计达标878天,达标率为80.1%,且以夏季达标天数最多,春、秋季次之,冬季达标天数最少,冬季不达标天数占总不达标天数的比例高达77.9%。(2)“煤改气”工程后,兰州市主城区居民PM2.5暴露水平明显降低,但与相关标准仍有一定距离,以2016年的年均暴露浓度为例,其值仍然是国标浓度的1.38倍,更是世界卫生组织(WHO)暴露标准的4.83倍。(3)以2014年PM2.5人口加权年均暴露浓度63.2μg/m~3作为基线,估测其达到国标浓度(35μg/m~3)、WHO目标浓度(10μg/m~3)时,分别可避免910例、2266例超额死亡,分别可因此产生0.82亿元、2.03亿元的经济学效益,分别占2014年兰州市国内生产总值(GDP)的0.04%和0.1%。(4)目前兰州市主城区居民PM2.5相关PAHs暴露浓度为778.3μg/m~3,介于91.4~1910.9μg/m~3之间。其中,16种优先控制的PAHs暴露浓度为772.4μg/m~3,介于91.2~1892.8μg/m~3之间;8种致癌PAHs暴露浓度为495.2μg/m~3,介于40.8~1156.6μg/m~3之间。各种PAHs采暖期的暴露浓度均显著高于非采暖期。(5)兰州市主城区居民PM2.5相关PAHs的暴露以低、中环为主,高环PAHs所占比例较小,在3.3%~10.4%之间。PAHs来源解析发现,石油的挥发性输入、煤炭、生物质等有机物的燃烧、机动车尾气的排放是兰州市主城区PM2.5中PAHs的主要来源。(6)兰州市主城区居民PM2.5相关PAHs暴露的TEQ浓度为19.4μg/m~3,介于1.97~61.80μg/m~3之间,所致的终身致癌风险(ILCR)值为1.68 10-3,介于1.7 10-4~5.4 10-3之间,均高于WHO的建议值(10-6),因此而造成的主城区居民期望寿命损失值为7.3天。结论:在兰州市“煤改气”工程后,主城区居民PM2.5暴露水平明显下降,但当前PM2.5年均暴露浓度及相应PAHs暴露浓度仍然处于相对较高水平,对居民健康存在一定风险。因此,探索适合新形势下主城区大气污染防治的措施,降低居民暴露风险,仍然是当前兰州市面临的一个重要公共卫生问题!
[Abstract]:AIM: Air pollution control is a complex and systematic project. The project of "coal to gas" has been fully implemented in the main urban area of Lanzhou since the winter of 2012. The automatic monitoring system of air quality has been completed and put into use in the second half of 2013. The fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the atmosphere has been included in the monitoring scope. The changes of atmospheric PM2.5 concentration from 2013 to 2016 were analyzed to assess the exposure of PM2.5 to urban residents, and to analyze the health effects and health and economic benefits of population exposed to PM2.5. Meanwhile, the contents of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in PM2.5 from 2015 to 2016 were detected to assess the current exposure level of PAHs to urban residents. Methods: (1) The monitoring data of PM2.5 in Lanzhou urban area from 2013 to 2016 were collected, and the weighted exposure concentration of PM2.5 population was calculated. The exposure changes of PM2.5 in the urban area after the coal to gas project were described. According to the second-level limit of PM2.5 exposure concentration in Environmental Air Quality Standard (GB 3095-2012), the exposure level of urban residents was evaluated. The health effects of PM2.5 exposure in urban residents were assessed by integrated exposure-response (IER) model. The WTP method was used to reduce the exposure level of PM2.5 in urban residents. Health economic benefit analysis. (2) PM2.5 exposure samples were collected from Lanzhou urban residents. The content of PAHs in the samples was analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), and the effect of winter heating on the content of PAHs in the air was analyzed by Mann-Whitney U test. The cumulative toxicity equivalent dose (TEQ) was used to characterize the main urban residents. Results: (1) The population weighted exposure concentration of PM2.5 from 2013 to 2016 was 57.5 ug/m~3, ranging from 11 to 457 ug/m~3. The daily average exposure concentration reached the standard 878 days, reaching 80.1% in summer. (2) The exposure level of PM2.5 in the main urban area of Lanzhou City decreased significantly after the "coal to gas" project, but there was still a certain distance from the relevant standards. Taking the average annual exposure concentration in 2016 as an example, its value was still the same. (3) Based on the population-weighted average annual exposure concentration of 63.2 ug/m 3 of PM2.5 in 2014, 910 cases and 2266 cases of excess deaths could be avoided when the concentration reached the national standard (35 ug/m 3) and the WHO target concentration (10 ug/m 3), respectively. The economic benefits of Yuan accounted for 0.04% and 0.1% of Lanzhou's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014 respectively. (4) At present, the exposure concentrations of PM2.5-related PAHs in Lanzhou's main urban areas are 778.3 ug/m 3, ranging from 91.4 to 1910.9 ug/m 3. Among them, 16 priority control PAHs exposure concentrations are 772.4 ug/m 3, ranging from 91.2 to 1892.8 ug/m 3; and 8 carcinogenic PAHs exposure concentrations are between 91.2 and 1892.8 ug/m 3. The exposure concentration was 495.2 ug/m~3, ranging from 40.8 to 1156.6 ug/m~3. The exposure concentration of all kinds of PAHs in heating period was significantly higher than that in non-heating period. (5) The exposure of PM2.5-related PAHs in the main urban area of Lanzhou City was mainly low, middle, and high-ring PAHs accounted for a small proportion, ranging from 3.3% to 10.4%. (6) The TEQ concentration of PM2.5-related PAHs in Lanzhou urban residents was 19.4 ug/m~3, ranging from 1.97 to 61.80 ug/m~3, resulting in a lifetime risk of cancer (ILCR) of 1.68 10-3, ranging from 1.7 10-4 to 5.4 10-3, higher than that of WHO. The recommended value (10-6), thus resulting in a loss of life expectancy of 7.3 days. Conclusion: After the "coal to gas" project in Lanzhou City, the exposure level of PM2.5 in the main urban area decreased significantly, but the current average exposure concentration of PM2.5 years and the corresponding exposure concentration of PAHs are still at a relatively high level, which poses a certain risk to the health of residents. Therefore, it is still an important public health problem for Lanzhou to explore measures suitable for the prevention and control of air pollution in the main urban area under the new situation and reduce the exposure risk of residents.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X513;X823;R12
本文编号：2240149
[Abstract]:AIM: Air pollution control is a complex and systematic project. The project of "coal to gas" has been fully implemented in the main urban area of Lanzhou since the winter of 2012. The automatic monitoring system of air quality has been completed and put into use in the second half of 2013. The fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the atmosphere has been included in the monitoring scope. The changes of atmospheric PM2.5 concentration from 2013 to 2016 were analyzed to assess the exposure of PM2.5 to urban residents, and to analyze the health effects and health and economic benefits of population exposed to PM2.5. Meanwhile, the contents of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in PM2.5 from 2015 to 2016 were detected to assess the current exposure level of PAHs to urban residents. Methods: (1) The monitoring data of PM2.5 in Lanzhou urban area from 2013 to 2016 were collected, and the weighted exposure concentration of PM2.5 population was calculated. The exposure changes of PM2.5 in the urban area after the coal to gas project were described. According to the second-level limit of PM2.5 exposure concentration in Environmental Air Quality Standard (GB 3095-2012), the exposure level of urban residents was evaluated. The health effects of PM2.5 exposure in urban residents were assessed by integrated exposure-response (IER) model. The WTP method was used to reduce the exposure level of PM2.5 in urban residents. Health economic benefit analysis. (2) PM2.5 exposure samples were collected from Lanzhou urban residents. The content of PAHs in the samples was analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), and the effect of winter heating on the content of PAHs in the air was analyzed by Mann-Whitney U test. The cumulative toxicity equivalent dose (TEQ) was used to characterize the main urban residents. Results: (1) The population weighted exposure concentration of PM2.5 from 2013 to 2016 was 57.5 ug/m~3, ranging from 11 to 457 ug/m~3. The daily average exposure concentration reached the standard 878 days, reaching 80.1% in summer. (2) The exposure level of PM2.5 in the main urban area of Lanzhou City decreased significantly after the "coal to gas" project, but there was still a certain distance from the relevant standards. Taking the average annual exposure concentration in 2016 as an example, its value was still the same. (3) Based on the population-weighted average annual exposure concentration of 63.2 ug/m 3 of PM2.5 in 2014, 910 cases and 2266 cases of excess deaths could be avoided when the concentration reached the national standard (35 ug/m 3) and the WHO target concentration (10 ug/m 3), respectively. The economic benefits of Yuan accounted for 0.04% and 0.1% of Lanzhou's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014 respectively. (4) At present, the exposure concentrations of PM2.5-related PAHs in Lanzhou's main urban areas are 778.3 ug/m 3, ranging from 91.4 to 1910.9 ug/m 3. Among them, 16 priority control PAHs exposure concentrations are 772.4 ug/m 3, ranging from 91.2 to 1892.8 ug/m 3; and 8 carcinogenic PAHs exposure concentrations are between 91.2 and 1892.8 ug/m 3. The exposure concentration was 495.2 ug/m~3, ranging from 40.8 to 1156.6 ug/m~3. The exposure concentration of all kinds of PAHs in heating period was significantly higher than that in non-heating period. (5) The exposure of PM2.5-related PAHs in the main urban area of Lanzhou City was mainly low, middle, and high-ring PAHs accounted for a small proportion, ranging from 3.3% to 10.4%. (6) The TEQ concentration of PM2.5-related PAHs in Lanzhou urban residents was 19.4 ug/m~3, ranging from 1.97 to 61.80 ug/m~3, resulting in a lifetime risk of cancer (ILCR) of 1.68 10-3, ranging from 1.7 10-4 to 5.4 10-3, higher than that of WHO. The recommended value (10-6), thus resulting in a loss of life expectancy of 7.3 days. Conclusion: After the "coal to gas" project in Lanzhou City, the exposure level of PM2.5 in the main urban area decreased significantly, but the current average exposure concentration of PM2.5 years and the corresponding exposure concentration of PAHs are still at a relatively high level, which poses a certain risk to the health of residents. Therefore, it is still an important public health problem for Lanzhou to explore measures suitable for the prevention and control of air pollution in the main urban area under the new situation and reduce the exposure risk of residents.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X513;X823;R12
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