地表河流水生态综合治理项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-10-12 18:01

【摘要】：地表河流水生态综合治理项目是带有公益性强、资金量大、周期长、涉及面广等特点的高风险项目,对风险不采取有效的管理措施,必然会给社会、居民、政府造成严重的不利后果。因此,开展地表河流水生态综合治理项目风险管理的研究,具有十分重要的现实意义。为此,较系统地研究了地表河流水生态综合治理项目的风险识别、风险评价及风险控制问题。具体来说,主要开展了以下几方面的研究工作:(1)地表河流水生态综合治理项目的风险识别。创建了基于PWBS-HHM的地表河流水生态综合治理项目风险识别模型。构建了由政治风险、建造风险、运营风险、经济和金融风险、自然环境风险、法律风险6个大类33个风险因素组成的地表河流水生态综合治理项目风险评价指标体系。根据地表河流水生态综合治理项目风险因素的动态模糊性的特点,引入了区间集值统计理论。(2)地表河流水生态综合治理项目的风险评价。引入物元分析理论,并基于物元分析理论构建了地表河流水生态综合治理项目风险评价模型,并结合地表河流水生态综合治理项目实例验证了该评价模型的实用性。(3)地表河流水生态综合治理项目的风险控制。引入可靠性数学理论,构建了地表河流水生态综合治理项目风险控制的可靠性分配模型。引入算例进行筛选分析,介绍了找出可靠度较低的子系统的方法,阐明了通过提高可靠度低的子系统的可靠度,能够使整个地表河流水生态综合治理项目风险控制系统的可靠度符合条件,为地表河流水生态综合治理项目风险控制提供了依据。(4)地表河流水生态综合治理项目的投资方博弈。引入博弈论数学模型,以政府和社会资本方作为博弈双方,找出了地表河流水生态综合治理项目中能够同时吸引社会资本方参与投资和降低其投机行为的混合纳什均衡点。(5)地表河流水生态综合治理项目的风险管理案例分析。基于上述基本理论对金堤河水生态综合治理项目进行了风险识别、风险评价、风险控制以及投资方博弈等风险管理过程进行系统地模拟计算。验证了地表河流水生态综合治理项目风险识别模型、风险评估模型、风险控制可靠性模型以及投资方博弈模型的适用性和科学合理性。
[Abstract]:The comprehensive control project of surface river water ecology is a high risk project with the characteristics of public welfare, large amount of capital, long period and wide coverage. If we do not take effective management measures to the risk, we will certainly give it to the society and the residents. The government has serious adverse consequences. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the risk management of surface river ecological comprehensive control project. Therefore, the risk identification, risk evaluation and risk control of surface river ecological comprehensive control project are studied systematically. Specifically, the main research work is as follows: (1) risk identification of surface river ecological comprehensive management project. The risk identification model of surface river ecological comprehensive management project based on PWBS-HHM is established. The risk evaluation index system of surface river ecological comprehensive management project is constructed, which consists of 6 kinds of 33 risk factors: political risk, construction risk, operational risk, economic and financial risk, natural environment risk and legal risk. According to the characteristics of dynamic fuzziness of risk factors in the comprehensive control project of surface river water ecology, the interval set value statistical theory is introduced. (2) the risk evaluation of surface river water ecological comprehensive management project. Introducing matter-element analysis theory and based on matter-element analysis theory, the risk assessment model of surface river ecological comprehensive control project is established. The practicability of the evaluation model is verified by the example of the surface river ecological comprehensive management project. (3) the risk control of the surface river water ecological comprehensive management project. By introducing reliability mathematics theory, a reliability distribution model for risk control of surface river ecological comprehensive control project is established. This paper introduces an example for screening and analysis, introduces the method of finding the subsystem with low reliability, and illustrates that the reliability of the subsystem with low reliability can be improved by improving the reliability of the subsystem. It can make the reliability of the risk control system of the whole surface river ecological comprehensive management project accord with the condition, and provide the basis for the risk control of the surface river water ecological comprehensive management project. (4) the investor game of the surface river water ecological comprehensive management project. This paper introduces the mathematical model of game theory and takes the government and the social capital as the two sides of the game. Find out the mixed Nash equilibrium point which can attract social capital to participate in investment and reduce its speculative behavior. (5) A case study on risk management of surface river water ecological integrated management project. Based on the above basic theory, the risk identification, risk evaluation, risk control and investor game are systematically simulated and calculated. The applicability and scientific rationality of risk identification model, risk assessment model, risk control reliability model and investor game model are verified.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X52;TV213.4

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