效率视角下中国2030年二氧化碳排放峰值目标的省区分解——基于零和收益DEA模型的研究

发布时间：2018-10-14 13:24

【摘要】：实现2030年二氧化碳排放达到峰值不仅是中国在全球气候谈判中做出的国际承诺,也是中国实现经济结构转型的必然选择,而对二氧化碳排放峰值进行合理的区域分解是中国实现二氧化碳排放达峰的必要前提.本文首先对中国2030年二氧化碳排放峰值进行初始的省区分解,利用DEA-BCC模型对初始省区分解方案进行效率评估,在此基础上利用零和收益DEA模型得到全部省区达到有效的中国二氧化碳排放峰值省区分解方案.本文研究表明:(1)大部分省区初始分解方案的效率值较低,只有2个省区的效率值达到DEA有效,且二氧化碳排放配额比重较大省区的分配效率值较小;(2)经过零和收益DEA模型的优化,省区分解方案的整体效率最终提升至有效边界,二氧化碳排放配额由效率较低的欠发达地区向效率较高的较发达地区转移,较发达和不发达的两类地区均分配到了较少的二氧化碳排放配额,最终二氧化碳排放权占比较多的地区主要为二氧化碳排放严重但减排潜力较大的省区.文章最后根据本文研究结论提出了具体的碳排放省区分解政策建议.
[Abstract]:Achieving a peak carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 is not only China's international commitment to global climate negotiations, but also an inevitable choice for China to achieve structural transformation of its economy. A reasonable regional decomposition of carbon dioxide emission peak is a necessary prerequisite for China to achieve a peak carbon dioxide emission peak. In this paper, the initial provincial and regional decomposition of China's 2030 peak carbon dioxide emission is carried out, and the efficiency of the initial provincial and regional decomposition scheme is evaluated by using DEA-BCC model. On this basis, the zero-sum income DEA model is used to obtain an effective decomposition scheme for all provinces and regions to achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions in China. The results show that: (1) the efficiency of the initial decomposition scheme of most provinces and autonomous regions is low, and only two provinces and regions have the efficiency of DEA. Moreover, the allocation efficiency of the larger proportion of carbon dioxide emission quota is relatively small. (2) through the optimization of zero-sum DEA model, the overall efficiency of the decomposition scheme of the province and region is promoted to the effective boundary. Carbon dioxide emission quotas have been transferred from less efficient less developed regions to more efficient developed regions, and both more developed and less developed regions have been allocated less carbon dioxide emission quotas, In the end, the regions with more carbon dioxide emission rights are the provinces with serious carbon dioxide emissions but great emission reduction potential. Finally, according to the conclusion of this study, the paper puts forward specific policy recommendations on the decomposition of carbon emissions in provinces and regions.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学统计学院;东北财经大学博士后科研流动站;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金(No.2016M601318) 辽宁省教育厅科研平台项目(No.LN2016JD020) 国家自然科学基金(No.71573034)~~
【分类号】：X321

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