京津冀与长三角城市群碳排放的空间聚集效应比较

发布时间：2018-12-19 19:44

【摘要】：基于中国高空间分辨率碳排放网格数据(CHRED),采用探索性空间分析手段(ESDA)和空间回归模型分析京津冀和长三角城市群碳排放指标空间格局和聚集特点,通过显著性检验选择空间滞后回归(SLM)和空间误差回归(SEM)方法,揭示城市群碳排放水平的影响因素.结果表明,京津冀城市群碳排放在空间上表现出更多的随机性和结构不稳定性,Moran自相关系数为-0.131;长三角城市群碳排放在空间上表现聚集趋势明显,Moran自相关系数0.106,二氧化碳排放受到临近区域的影响.人口和经济因素是京津冀城市群和长三角城市群碳排放的最主要驱动因素.总体上长三角地区碳排放总体扩散效应显著,而京津冀城市群极化效应更明显.区域发展的多中心化是大城市病治理的重要导向,同时要注意对区域碳排放溢出热点进行控制,促进城市群一体化和低碳化发展,实现区域碳平衡.
[Abstract]:Based on China's high spatial resolution carbon emission grid data (CHRED), the spatial pattern and agglomeration characteristics of carbon emission indicators of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations are analyzed by exploratory spatial analysis method (ESDA) and spatial regression model. Through significance test, spatial lag regression (SLM) and spatial error regression (SEM) were selected to reveal the influencing factors of urban agglomeration carbon emission level. The results showed that the carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration showed more randomness and structural instability in space, and the Moran autocorrelation coefficient was -0.131; The carbon emission of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration shows an obvious aggregation trend in space, the autocorrelation coefficient of Moran is 0.106, and carbon dioxide emission is affected by the adjacent area. Population and economy are the main driving factors of carbon emission in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei urban agglomeration and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. In general, the diffusion effect of carbon emissions in Yangtze River Delta is significant, and the polarization effect of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is more obvious. Multi-centralization of regional development is an important direction of disease management in large cities. At the same time, attention should be paid to the control of regional carbon emission spillover hot spots, to promote the integration and low-carbon development of urban agglomeration, and to achieve regional carbon balance.
【作者单位】：北京市应对气候变化研究中心;环境保护部环境规划院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41001380) 北京市青年拔尖人才资助项目(2014000021223ZK42) 国家环境保护部青年拔尖人才资助项目北京市自然科学基金资助项目(8122023)
【分类号】：X321

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