全国区域环境公平测度与影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-12-27 14:43

【摘要】：我国自改革开放以来,经济得到高速增长的同时也带来了环境的不断恶化,地区间经济发展不平衡造成环境资源使用的不平衡,在环境不平衡发展的累积过程中,区际环境不公平带来的冲突日益凸显。环境不平等问题的研究始于国外,国外的相关研究更侧重关注种族冲突相对严重地区的群体间环境不公平问题,而我国并不存在这样矛盾冲突的种族关系。我国幅员辽阔,不同区域间的发展差异较大,区域间环境不平等问题更值得关注,当前国内在学术与政策上已逐渐开始重视环境公平问题。首先,本文通过对国内外相关文献的回顾与评述,基于收入不平等分析工具对环境公平程度进行测度,构建了经济产出视角下的环境不平等指数EII与人口权重视角下的环境加权变异系数CEVw,较为全面地测算了 2000-2015年中国各个省份的环境公平程度,并从省级视角与七大经济区域视角进行分析。同时对江苏省内部的环境不平等进行定量测算,并与相同时间尺度下的各项社会经济发展指标进行比对,综合分析区域内部环境排放不公平的现状特征。结果显示,我国不仅在不同区域的工业污染排放上差异明显,在区际间环境公平程度上更是呈现了明显的空间异质性特征;无论从省级空间视角还是华北、华东、华中、华南、东北、西南、西北的七大地域视角来分析,我国区域间的环境公平问题均十分严重。从江苏省内部的环境公平来分析,2000-2014年间,基于13个城市人口权重与工业污染排放的环境加权变异系数呈倒U型曲线过程,江苏省环境不平等程度呈现出先升高、再降低、然后逐渐趋于平缓的趋势。其次,在定量化测度环境公平水平的基础之上,基于IPAT模型、STIRPAT模型构建的环境不平等影响因素分解模型以及环境库兹涅兹理论,对经济发展与环境不公平间的关系、城市化与环境不公平之间的曲线关系开展研究;借鉴Theil指数的KAYA分解模型,进一步确定影响环境不公平的驱动因子;利用面板数据的固定效应模型,通过实证研究对全国各省环境不平等的解释变量进行回归估计。结果显示,其一,能源强度、经济增长、城市化率、产业结构、人口因素皆共同影响了区际间环境不平等程度的高低。从影响系数上看,能源强度是影响区域二氧化硫环境不平等程度贡献率最高的的驱动因素,经济增长、城市化率、产业结构的影响贡献其次,人口因子的影响程度相对较小。其二,除城市化因素对环境不平等程度呈现出明显的负向效应外,其余因子都对环境不平等程度起到明显的正向驱动效应。其三,对EKC理论在环境不平等程度上的适用性进行检验,发现在2000-2012年间,各地区经济发展与环境不公平程度之间并未显示出倒U型曲线关系,而是呈现显著的线性关系;城市化率与环境不平等程度之间有可能存在倒U型关系,但曲线已位于拐点右侧;环境不平等程度的高低不但随着城市化的发展而降低,且其降低速率会随着城市化率不断增大,变化趋势会越来越明显。此外,基于K-均值聚类分析方法,在揭示区际间环境公平的核心影响因素的基础之上,分析经济产出、能源强度、城市化率下的各地区的聚类情况,并根据K-均值聚类结果的不同类目,分别对各类区域的环境不公平进行更为清晰的趋势分析。从而为不同类别区域实施相应匹配的环境政策时提供理论支撑与科学依据。本文可能的创新之处在于:第一,选用有代表性的工业污染物,从经济产出、人口权重多个视角构建了环境不平等定量测度模型,对研究角度实现了拓展;第二,基于环境库兹涅兹理论对全国区域二氧化硫排放的环境不平等程度的适用性进行了验证,并增加了城市化解释变量进行EKC理论适用性的验证。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening-up in China, the economy has been growing at a high speed, which has also brought about the worsening of the environment, the unbalanced economic development of the region and the imbalance of the use of the environmental resources, and the conflicts between the regional environment and the environment are becoming more and more prominent in the accumulation process of the unbalanced development of the environment. The study of the problem of the environment inequality began in the foreign countries, and the relevant research abroad focused more on the problem of the non-equity among the groups in the relatively serious region of the ethnic conflict, and there is no ethnic relation of such conflicts in our country. The large scale of the country, the great difference in the development of the different regions, and the problem of the inequality between the regions are of great concern, and the current domestic academic and policy has gradually begun to pay attention to the environmental equity. First, this paper, through the review and review of the relevant literature at home and abroad, measure the degree of environmental fairness based on the income inequality analysis tool, and construct the environmental weighted coefficient of variation CEVw of the environment inequality index EII and the population weight angle of view under the economic output perspective. The degree of environmental equity in all provinces of China in 2000-2015 is calculated in a more comprehensive way, and the analysis is made from the perspective of the provincial level and the perspective of the seven major economic regions. At the same time, the environmental non-equality in Jiangsu Province is quantitatively calculated and compared with the social and economic development indexes under the same time scale, and the present characteristics of the non-equity in the internal environment of the region are comprehensively analyzed. The results show that not only the difference of industrial pollution discharge in different regions is obvious, but also the spatial heterogeneity is more evident in the inter-regional environment, whether from the provincial spatial perspective or the North China, the East China, the Central China, the South China, the North-East and the South-West, From the perspective of the seven major regions in the north-west, the environmental fair in our country is very serious. The environmental-weighted coefficient of variation based on 13 urban population weight and industrial pollution emission in the period of 2000-2014 is an inverted U-shaped curve process from the internal environment of Jiangsu Province. The degree of environmental inequality in Jiangsu Province is first raised and then decreased, and then it gradually tends to be gentle. Secondly, based on the quantitative measure of the fair level of the environment, the relationship between the economic development and the environmental inequity is made based on the IPAT model, the environment inequality influence factor decomposition model constructed by the STIRPAT model, and the environment Kuznets theory. The paper studies the relationship between the urbanization and the unfair environment, and uses the KAYA decomposition model of the oil index to further determine the driving factors that affect the environment's inequity, and uses the fixed-effect model of the panel data. An empirical study is made to estimate the variance of the environmental inequality in all the provinces of the country. The results show that, firstly, the energy intensity, the economic growth, the urbanization rate, the industrial structure and the population factor have a common influence on the degree of inequality between the inter-regional environment. On the basis of the influence coefficient, the energy intensity is the driving factor which has the highest contribution rate of the environmental non-equality degree in the regional sulfur dioxide environment, the economic growth, the urbanization rate, the influence of the industrial structure, and the influence degree of the population factor is relatively small. Secondly, in addition to the negative effect of urbanization on the degree of inequality of the environment, the other factors play a significant positive driving effect on the degree of inequality of the environment. Thirdly, the applicability of the EKC theory to the degree of environmental non-equality is tested, and it is found that in the period 2000-2012, there is no U-type curve relation between the economic development and the degree of the environmental inequality, but a significant linear relationship is presented. There may be an inverted U-shaped relationship between the rate of urbanization and the degree of inequality, but the curve is on the right side of the inflection point; the degree of the inequality of the environment not only decreases with the development of the urbanization, but also the rate of reduction will become more and more obvious with the increasing urbanization rate. In addition, based on the K-mean cluster analysis method, on the basis of revealing the core influence factors of the inter-regional environmental fairness, the situation of the aggregation of the regions under the economic output, the energy intensity and the urbanization rate is analyzed, and the different categories of the K-mean clustering result are analyzed, and a more clear trend analysis is carried out on the environmental inequity of various regions, respectively. so as to provide theoretical support and scientific basis for implementing the corresponding matching environment policy for different category regions. The possible innovation of this paper is that the first, the representative industrial pollutant is selected, the quantitative measure model of the environment inequality is constructed from the economic output and the population weight, the research angle is expanded, and the second, On the basis of the environmental Kuznets theory, the applicability of the environmental non-equal degree of sulfur dioxide emission in the whole country is verified, and the validation of the applicability of the EKC theory to the urbanization interpretation variable is added.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X321

【参考文献】