21世纪以来天津细颗粒物气象扩散能力趋势分析

发布时间：2019-01-01 19:17

【摘要】：基于高精度的排放源和大气化学模式WRF/chem,在同排放源条件下模拟了2000~2015年天津地区PM_(2.5)质量浓度,根据NECP再分析资料和地面观测相关数据构建细颗粒物气象扩散指数,使用两种方法描述21世纪以来天津地区细颗粒物气象扩散能力变化趋势.研究结果表明:2000~2015年期间天津地区细颗粒气象扩散能力呈现周期性波动,不利气象条件的第一个峰值出现在2003~2004年,第二个峰值为2013~2015年,两个峰值相距11年,在2000~2015年间,天津地区气象扩散能力(主要针对PM_(2.5)影响)年际平均波动4.1%,最大值约为9%,对于大气污染防治目标制定和效果评估,必须考虑气象年际波动的影响;2008~2010年气象条件较有利于细颗粒物扩散,此后逐年转差,在2013~2015年处于历史正距平(不利扩散),从而导致2013~2015年雾霾和重污染天气频发;2015年相比2013年天津细颗粒物气象扩散能力没有明显提高,但PM_(2.5)质量浓度下降29%,大气污染防治措施的有效执行在其中发挥积极作用.
[Abstract]:Based on the high precision emission source and atmospheric chemical model WRF/chem, the mass concentration of PM_ (2.5) in Tianjin from 2000 to 2015 was simulated under the same emission source. Based on the NECP reanalysis data and the surface observation data, the meteorological diffusion index of fine particulate matter was constructed. Two methods were used to describe the change trend of meteorological diffusion ability of fine particulate matter in Tianjin since the 21st century. The results show that the diffusion capacity of fine particles in Tianjin area fluctuates periodically from 2000 to 2015. The first peak of adverse meteorological conditions appears in 2003 ~ 2004, the second peak value is from 2013 to 2015, and the two peaks are separated by 11 years. The interannual average fluctuation of meteorological diffusivity (mainly for the effect of PM_ (2.5) in Tianjin area is 4.1, the maximum value is about 9. The effect of meteorological interannual fluctuation must be considered for the target formulation and effect evaluation of atmospheric pollution prevention and control. From 2008 to 2010, the meteorological conditions were favorable to fine particulate matter diffusion, and then became worse year after year, and were in the historical positive anomaly (adverse diffusion) from 2013 to 2015, which resulted in frequent haze and heavy pollution weather from 2013 to 2015. Compared with 2013, the meteorological diffusivity of fine particulate matter in Tianjin did not improve significantly in 2015, but the mass concentration of PM_ (2.5) decreased by 29 parts, and the effective implementation of air pollution control measures played an active role in it.
【作者单位】：天津市环境气象中心;天津市气象科学研究所;
【基金】：环保公益行业专项(201409001) 国家科技支撑计划(2014BAC23B01) 天津市气象局课题(201704ybxm04)
【分类号】：X513

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