中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估

发布时间：2019-07-11 09:42

【摘要】：实现2030年碳排放达峰不仅是中国为应对全球气候变化向国际社会做出的郑重承诺,也是中国未来经济结构转型与可持续发展的必然选择。基于中国实现2030年碳排放达到峰值的宏观目标为背景,本文以中国碳排放的主要行业工业为研究对象,首先运用拓展的STIRPAT模型对工业及其9个细分行业的碳排放达峰进行了情景预测,然后基于公平和效率的双重视角对工业细分行业的减排潜力进行评估。研究表明:(1)仅有低碳情景和抑制排放情景2可以实现中国碳排放2030年达峰,低碳情景是实现中国工业碳排放达峰的最佳发展模式,达峰时间最早(2030年),峰值最低(140.43亿t)。激进排放情景则是最差的发展模式,达峰时间最晚(2036年),峰值也最高(150.09亿t)。(2)工业内部各细分行业碳排放的最优达峰情景差别较大。建材和纺织制造业能够实现提前达峰,可以在这类行业率先实施达峰管理措施,使其带动其他行业陆续达峰。(3)最具减排潜力的行业是石油制造业,其次是电力行业,这些减排潜力较大的行业应该成为国家节能减排的重点对象。(4)基于工业各细分行业在减排公平性和效率性上的差异将工业9个细分行业分为四类。其中,石油、钢铁制造业和电力行业属于"高效高公平行业";化工、建材制造业属于"低效高公平行业";采掘业属于"高效不公平行业";纺织、轻工和机电制造业属于"低效不公平行业"。中国应针对不同类型的行业制定出相应的减排战略,将减排重点放在各行业最具潜力的方面。最后,文章对实现中国工业碳排放达峰管理提出了几点政策建议。
[Abstract]:Achieving the peak of carbon emissions in 2030 is not only a solemn commitment made by China to the international community to deal with global climate change, but also an inevitable choice for the transformation and sustainable development of China's economic structure in the future. Based on the macro goal of reaching the peak of carbon emissions in 2030 in China, this paper takes the main industries of carbon emissions in China as the research object. Firstly, the extended STIRPAT model is used to predict the peak carbon emissions of industry and its nine sub-industries, and then the emission reduction potential of industrial subdivisions is evaluated from the perspective of fairness and efficiency. The results show that: (1) only low carbon scenarios and emission suppression scenarios 2 can achieve the peak of carbon emissions in China in 2030. Low carbon scenarios are the best development model to achieve the peak of industrial carbon emissions in China. The peak time is the earliest (2030) and the peak value is the lowest (14.043 billion t). Radical emission scenario is the worst development model, the peak time is the latest (2036), and the peak value is the highest (15.009 billion t). (2). The building materials and textile manufacturing industry can reach the peak ahead of schedule, and can take the lead in implementing peak management measures in this kind of industry, so that it can drive other industries to reach peak one after another. (3) the industry with the most potential for emission reduction is the oil manufacturing industry, followed by the electric power industry. These industries with great emission reduction potential should become the key objects of national energy conservation and emission reduction. (4) based on the differences in fairness and efficiency of emission reduction among industrial subsectors, nine industrial subdivisions are divided into four categories. Among them, oil, steel and power industries belong to "high efficiency and high fairness industry"; chemical industry, building materials manufacturing industry belongs to "low efficiency and high fairness industry"; extraction industry belongs to "efficient and unfair industry"; textile, light industry and mechanical and electrical manufacturing industry belong to "inefficient and unfair industry". China should formulate corresponding emission reduction strategies for different types of industries, focusing on the most potential areas of each industry. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for realizing the peak management of industrial carbon emissions in China.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学统计学院;东北财经大学博士后科研流动站;
【基金】：中国博士后科研基金项目“中国碳排放达峰的情景预测、路径规划与经济影响研究”(批准号:2016M601318) 辽宁省教育厅科研平台项目“中国对外贸易隐含碳排放及其外贸结构调整研究”(批准号:LN2016JD020) 国家自然科学基金项目“贸易产品消耗的全口径水资源:区域评估、影响因素及流动特征”(批准号:71573034) 国家社科基金重大项目“社会主义与市场经济深度融合研究”(批准号:2015YZD08);国家社科基金青年项目“中国卫生卫星账户体系的构建与创新研究”(批准号:14CTJ003)
【分类号】：X322

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