基于选择实验方法的北京市空气质量价值评估
发布时间：2019-07-22 15:35
【摘要】：科学地评估空气质量的经济价值是政府制定空气污染治理政策的必要前提。近年来选择实验方法逐渐兴起,并被研究者广泛应用于环境价值评估。与其他陈述偏好方法相比,选择实验的一个优势是其具有更高的外部效度。选择实验方法在国内的应用研究尚处在起步阶段。本研究分别在2015年和2016年对北京市居民开展了两次基于选择实验方法的网络调查,在调查数据的基础上采用随机参数Logit和广义多元Logit模型分析了北京市居民对空气质量的偏好,并据此估算了空气质量价值。根据2015年样本的估算结果,雾霾天气(PM_(2.5)超标)和沙尘天气(PM_(10)超标)对北京市居民的平均边际价值分别为6.32元/d和2.69元/d;根据2016年样本的估算结果,两个价值分别为7.72元/d和2.81元/d。上述估算结果在两次调查样本中基本稳定,而且,在多种模型设定下都具有较强的稳健性,与近年来的同类研究结果基本一致。以2016年样本的估算结果为基础,2015年北京市雾霾天气和沙尘天气引起的价值损失分别为239.61亿元和45.13亿元,占北京市当年GDP总量的1.04%和0.20%。进一步研究发现,北京市2015年和2016年空气质量改善的价值均低于北京市政府同年用于治理空气污染投入的财政资金总量,说明资金使用效率有待进一步提高;此外,虽然空气质量对高收入居民具有更高的价值,但是,以收入水平为指标设计的累进税率并不比固定税率更优。
[Abstract]:Scientific evaluation of the economic value of air quality is a necessary prerequisite for the government to formulate air pollution control policies. In recent years, the selection of experimental methods is gradually rising, and has been widely used in environmental value assessment. Compared with other declarative preference methods, one of the advantages of selection experiment is that it has higher external validity. The application of experimental methods in China is still in its infancy. In this study, two network surveys based on selection experiment method were carried out for Beijing residents in 2015 and 2016, respectively. on the basis of the survey data, the preference of Beijing residents for air quality was analyzed by using random parameter Logit and generalized multivariate Logit model, and the value of air quality was estimated. According to the estimated results of 2015 samples, the average marginal values of haze weather (PM_) and dust weather (PM_ (10) exceeding the standard) to Beijing residents were 6.32 yuan / d and 2.69 yuan / d, respectively. According to the estimated results of 2016 samples, the two values were 7.72 yuan / d and 2.81 yuan / d, respectively. The above estimation results are basically stable in the two survey samples, and have strong robustness under a variety of model settings, which is basically consistent with the similar research results in recent years. Based on the estimated results of 2016 samples, the value losses caused by haze weather and dust weather in Beijing in 2015 were 23.961 billion yuan and 4.513 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 1.04% and 0.20% of the total GDP in Beijing in that year. It is found that the value of air quality improvement in Beijing in 2015 and 2016 is lower than the total amount of financial funds invested by the Beijing municipal government in the same year to control air pollution, indicating that the efficiency of the use of funds needs to be further improved. in addition, although air quality has higher value to high-income residents, the progressive tax rate designed with the income level as the index is no better than the fixed tax rate.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院农村发展研究所;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“基于选择实验的北京市雾霾治理公共政策研究”(批准号:16XNB023)
【分类号】：X823
[Abstract]:Scientific evaluation of the economic value of air quality is a necessary prerequisite for the government to formulate air pollution control policies. In recent years, the selection of experimental methods is gradually rising, and has been widely used in environmental value assessment. Compared with other declarative preference methods, one of the advantages of selection experiment is that it has higher external validity. The application of experimental methods in China is still in its infancy. In this study, two network surveys based on selection experiment method were carried out for Beijing residents in 2015 and 2016, respectively. on the basis of the survey data, the preference of Beijing residents for air quality was analyzed by using random parameter Logit and generalized multivariate Logit model, and the value of air quality was estimated. According to the estimated results of 2015 samples, the average marginal values of haze weather (PM_) and dust weather (PM_ (10) exceeding the standard) to Beijing residents were 6.32 yuan / d and 2.69 yuan / d, respectively. According to the estimated results of 2016 samples, the two values were 7.72 yuan / d and 2.81 yuan / d, respectively. The above estimation results are basically stable in the two survey samples, and have strong robustness under a variety of model settings, which is basically consistent with the similar research results in recent years. Based on the estimated results of 2016 samples, the value losses caused by haze weather and dust weather in Beijing in 2015 were 23.961 billion yuan and 4.513 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 1.04% and 0.20% of the total GDP in Beijing in that year. It is found that the value of air quality improvement in Beijing in 2015 and 2016 is lower than the total amount of financial funds invested by the Beijing municipal government in the same year to control air pollution, indicating that the efficiency of the use of funds needs to be further improved. in addition, although air quality has higher value to high-income residents, the progressive tax rate designed with the income level as the index is no better than the fixed tax rate.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院农村发展研究所;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“基于选择实验的北京市雾霾治理公共政策研究”(批准号:16XNB023)
【分类号】：X823
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