基于权重和概率联合分析的滑坡危险性评价

发布时间：2018-01-05 23:28

本文关键词：基于权重和概率联合分析的滑坡危险性评价　出处：《中国地震局兰州地震研究所》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：滑坡灾害研究,对城镇化建设和社会和谐发展都有现实意义;区域滑坡危险性评价,是滑坡灾害防御及治理研究的重要内容。2013年甘肃省岷县-漳县地震诱发了600余处以黄土滑坡为主的滑坡,造成严重人员伤亡和经济损失。不论是对多个致灾因子进行权重分析,或是基于安全系数计算模型的概率分析,难以同时说明致灾因子对滑坡的贡献程度及作用机制。在特定研究区内,如何将权重法和概率法联合,得出更为合理与可靠的评价结果,这是论文的主要目的及拟解决的核心问题。通过资料收集、野外考察、室内试验等获取研究区内地质环境、岩土体力学性质及物性参数。结合贡献权重模型和三标度两步层次分析法,对滑坡影响因素进行权重分析,得出优势因子并据此给出滑坡危险性评价结果;利用概率分析法建立的安全系数模型计算累积位移,结合优势因子与累计位移模型得到权重与概率联合分析的滑坡危险性区划结果;与权重法、概率法评价结果对比,揭示联合分析方法的可能优势。论文取得的研究结果汇总如下。(1)三标度两步层次分析法和贡献权重两种方法对优势因子的确定,可借助实际滑坡分布验证选取结果的合理性;优势因子的合理选取,避免了权重法和概率法在联合评价过程中影响因子的重复性。(2)权重法的评价结果,与实际已有滑坡在宏观区域分布上具有较高吻合度;概率法的评价结果,可较好地预测不同等级滑坡的分布状况。联合方法的评价结果,不仅与实际已有滑坡的吻合度较高,而且结果更符合实际情形,有助于提升评价结果的可靠性。(3)结合三种评价方法的结果可知,研究区内有六处为滑坡危险性严重的区域:武山县中部及西北部与漳县陇西交界处;渭源南部与卓尼、莲花山风景林保护区交界处;岷县西北部及与临潭交界处;宕昌中南部及舟曲东部;礼县中东部及与西和交界处;通渭-甘谷交界处。
[Abstract]:The study of landslide disaster is of practical significance to the construction of urbanization and the harmonious development of society. Regional landslide risk assessment is an important part of landslide disaster prevention and management. In 2013 the Minxian-Zhangzhou earthquake in Gansu Province induced more than 600 landslides which were mainly caused by loess landslide. It causes serious casualties and economic losses. It is not only the weight analysis of multiple disaster factors, but also the probability analysis based on the safety factor calculation model. It is difficult to explain the contribution degree and mechanism of disaster factors to landslide at the same time. In the specific research area, how to combine the weight method and probability method to get more reasonable and reliable evaluation results. This is the main purpose of the paper and the core problem to be solved. The geological environment in the study area is obtained through data collection, field investigation, laboratory test, etc. Combined with the contribution weight model and the three-scale two-step analytic hierarchy process, the influential factors of landslide are analyzed, and the dominant factors are obtained and the evaluation results of landslide risk are given. The cumulative displacement is calculated by using the safety coefficient model established by the probability analysis method, and the landslide hazard zoning results are obtained by combining the dominant factor and the cumulative displacement model. Compared with the weight method, the probability method evaluation results. To reveal the possible advantages of the joint analysis method. The research results obtained in this paper are summarized as follows. 1) the determination of the advantage factor by the three-scale two-step analytic hierarchy process and the contribution weight. The rationality of the selected results can be verified by the actual landslide distribution. The reasonable selection of dominant factors avoids the evaluation results of weight method and probability method in the process of joint evaluation. It has a high degree of agreement with the actual landslide distribution in macroscopic area. The evaluation results of probability method can well predict the distribution of landslides of different grades. The evaluation results of the combined method are not only in good agreement with the actual landslide, but also more in line with the actual situation. According to the results of three evaluation methods, there are six areas with serious landslide risk in the study area: the border of central and northwest Wushan County and Longxi of Zhangzhou County; Weiyuan south and Zhuoni, Lianhuashan scenic forest reserve junction; Minxian northwest and the border with Lintan; Central and southern Dangchang and eastern Zhouqu; The central and eastern part of Lixian and its junction with the west; Tongwei-Gangu junction.
【学位授予单位】：中国地震局兰州地震研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P642.22

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