熟悉机制、媒体及辟谣者对谣言传播影响的研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 04:14

本文关键词：熟悉机制、媒体及辟谣者对谣言传播影响的研究　出处：《江苏大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近些年来由于社交媒体的发展,谣言的传播导致社会恐慌以及动乱的事件层出不穷,给国家和社会带来了巨大的经济损失。因而研究谣言传播机理及影响谣言传播的因素具有重要的现实意义。本文通过分析个体本身(辟谣者)、个体之间的熟悉度与接触率、官方与非官方媒体的作用等因素对谣言在随机网络中传播的影响,建立了不同的谣言传播模型,基于平均场方法分析了模型的稳定性,模拟结果显示这三类影响因素都对谣言的传播范围有着明显的影响。具体如下:(1)运用平均场方程建立SEIR谣言传播模型,通过考虑个体之间的熟悉度及接触概率,研究谣言传播的机理,发现熟悉度与最终谣言的传播范围成正比,接触率与最终谣言的传播范围成反比。通过对平均场方程的稳定性分析得到一个超越方程,分析了超越方程的一个非零解。结果表明当?(27)1时谣言是可控的;当?(29)1时谣言是不可控的。(2)运用平均场方程建立SEIR谣言传播模型,通过考虑官方与非官方媒体因素,研究谣言传播的机理。模拟结果显示非官方媒体不仅可以改变谣言扩散的速度,也可以减小最终谣言扩散的范围;官方媒体只能减少传播者的数量而不能抑制谣言传播的速度。在谣言传播中监督管理好非官方媒体比起官方媒体的辟谣更能快速有效的阻止谣言的扩散。(3)运用平均场方法描述了谣言传播的动态演化过程,建立SIR1R2谣言传播模型,通过考虑辟谣者这类个体,研究谣言传播的机理。通过稳定性分析求出了谣言传播阈值,发现传播阈值与平均度和遗忘率有关。分析了辟谣者在模型中的作用,得出辟谣者在谣言的传播中起到抑制作用,可以有效的阻止谣言的扩散。
[Abstract]:In recent years due to the development of social media, the spread of rumors to cause social panic and unrest emerge in an endless stream, bring huge economic losses to the state and society. So it has important practical significance to study the mechanism and influence factors of the spread of rumors rumor. Through the analysis of the individual itself (rumor), and familiarity between individuals the contact rate, official and non official media the role of influence factors on the spread of rumors in the random network, a rumor propagation model is different, the mean field method based on the analysis of the stability of the model, the simulation results show that there are obvious the influence of three factors on the spread of rumors. The details are as follows: (1) using the mean field equations SEIR rumor propagation model, by considering the individual between familiarity and contact probability, study on the mechanism of the spread of rumors, found that familiarity with the The final rumors spread range is proportional to the contact rate and the final rumors spread range is inversely proportional to a transcendental equation based on the analysis of the stability of mean field equations, analysis of the transcendental equation for a non-zero solution. The results show that when? (27) 1 when rumors are controlled; when? (29) 1 when the rumor is not controllable. (2) using the mean field equations SEIR rumor propagation model, by considering the official and non official media factors, study on the mechanism of the spread of rumors. The simulation results show that the non official media can not only change the speed range of the spread of rumors, can also reduce the final spread of rumors; official media can only reduce the number of transmission who cannot suppressrumors speed. The supervision and management of non official media than the official media rumor on rumor spreading more quickly and effectively prevent the spread of rumors. (3) using the mean field method to describe the spread of rumors The dynamic evolution process, the establishment of SIR1R2 model by considering the spread of rumors, rumor of this kind of individual, study on the mechanism of the spread of rumors. By the analysis of stability for the rumor spreading threshold, found spreading threshold and average degree and forgetting rate. Analysis of the rumor role in the model, the rumor has inhibitory effect on the spread of rumors, can effectively prevent the spread of rumors.

【学位授予单位】：江苏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G206;O157.5

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