饮马河流域水资源承载能力研究

发布时间：2018-02-21 02:39

本文关键词： 压力-状态-响应模型定额趋势法水资源承载能力　出处：《长春工程学院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：饮马河是第二松花江的主要支流,位于东北黑土地核心区,是东北老工业基地和国家主要的粮食基地。为更好地实现社会经济、人口与环境的协调发展,本文在参阅大量文献的基础上,总结国内外水资源承载能力的研究方法,选取压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型对饮马河流域水资源承载能力进行研究。首先开展了流域水资源现状评价;然后根据流域内各县镇2014年社会经济情况,运用趋势定额法对2020年及2030年需水量进行预测;最后建立评价饮马河流域水资源承载能力的指标体系,将模型建立于Visual Basic6.0平台上进行水资源承载能力求解。基于社会经济、生态环境与水环境协调发展的原则,计算出水资源承载能力,结合定额趋势法所求需水量,确定饮马河流域2020年、2030年的水资源承载能力。该项研究主要的成果有:1.饮马河流域现状年水资源较为充足。2014年总用水量为5.98×108m3,总供水量为9.73×108m3,水资源总量为13.43×108m3,水资源开发利用率为72.49%。经过计算,饮马河流域水资源可利用总量为6.89×108m3。2.通过运用定额趋势法对饮马河流域2020年及2030年需水量进行预测,可得到总需水量依然呈现逐年递增的趋势。预测2020年总需水量为6.52×108m3,2030年总需水量为7.18×108m3。3.结合PSR模型计算成果,基于水资源供水量进行水资源承载能力分析。2020年饮马河流域总供水量为7.53×108m3,总需水量为6.57×108m3,余水量为0.96×108m3。2020年饮马河流域水资源较为充足。可以承载2020年社会经济发展用水需求。即可承载人口数量为186万人,人均用水量353m3,可承载GDP约为1253.3亿元,可承载生态环境面积2123km2。2030年饮马河流域总供水量为7.65×108m3,总需水量为7.70×108m3,缺水量为0.053×108m3,与PSR模型预测结果相比超载人口数为12970人,超载GDP为12.97亿元,超载生态面积为18.9公顷。针对2030年水资源供需水量不平衡情况,应当调整产业结构,优先发展低耗水、高产值的企业,严格控制高耗水、低产值的企业上马,适当减少万元工业增加值用水量,大力推广节水技术,提高水资源承载能力。
[Abstract]:Yinma River is a major tributary of the second Songhua River, located in the northeast black soil is the core area of the northeast old industrial base and the country's major grain base. In order to realize the social economy, the coordinated development of population and environment, this paper based on the extensive literature, summarizes the domestic research methods of water resources carrying capacity, selection pressure state response (PSR) model based on water resources carrying capacity from the horse river basin. Firstly carried out evaluation of the present situation of water resources in the basin; then according to the watershed in 2014 the town of social economic conditions, using the quota method to forecast the trend of consumption in 2020 and 2030; and finally establish evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of Yinma River basin the model of water resources in the Visual Basic6.0 platform for carrying capacity. Based on the social economy, the coordinated development of ecological environment and water environment principle, design To calculate the carrying capacity of water resources, combined with the trend of quota method for water demand, determine the Yinma River Basin in 2030 2020, the carrying capacity of water resources. The main research results are: 1. the status quo of Yinmahe drainage basin water resources is sufficient for.2014 years the total amount is 5.98 * 108m3, the total amount of water supply is 9.73 * 108m3. The total amount of water resources is 13.43 * 108m3, water resources development and utilization rate of 72.49%. after calculation, water resources Yinmahe drainage basin can use a total of 6.89 * 108m3.2. to predict the content of 2020 and 2030 Yinma River Basin by using the quota trend method, it can get the total water demand is increasing year by year. The total demand forecast in 2020 water is 6.52 * 108m32030 total annual water demand is 7.18 * 108m3.3. PSR model combined with the calculation results of water resources, water supply based on water resources carrying capacity analysis of the total water supply.2020 Yinmahe basin amount to 7.53 * 108m3 And the total water demand is 6.57 * 108m3, 0.96 * 108m3.2020 years more than water Yinma River Basin water resources is more adequate. Can carry the 2020 socio-economic development demand for water. Then carrying population of 1 million 860 thousand people, per capita consumption of 353m3, GDP can carry about 125 billion 330 million yuan, the total water bearing area ecological environment 2123km2.2030 Yinmahe river basin is 7.65 * 108m3, the total water demand is 7.70 * 108m3, water quantity is 0.053 * 108m3, compared with the results of PSR models of overloading population of 12970 people, overload GDP was 1 billion 297 million yuan, an area of 18.9 hectares. The ecological overload for water resources in 2030 water supply and demand imbalance, should adjust the industrial structure give priority to the development, low water consumption, high production enterprises, strict control of high water consumption, low value-added enterprises launched, appropriate to reduce water consumption yuan industrial added value, and vigorously promote water-saving technology, improve the carrying capacity of water resources.

【学位授予单位】：长春工程学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

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