500hPa急流自动分析算法研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 08:39

本文选题：高空天气系统　切入点：防灾减灾　出处：《北方民族大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：为适应气象业务发展需求,提高气象业务服务能力,结合现代天气预报业务发展形势,进一步探索高空天气系统自动分析算法和技术。位于对流层中层的500hPa高空天气系统对气象防灾减灾尤为重要,本文在气象部门人工分析经验的基础上,对500hPa层面急流研究一套科学、可行的自动分析算法,改变气象从业人员借助计算机人工绘制急流的现状。进一步提高气象部门整体业务分析效率,在一定程度上提高预报、预警业务自动化水平。借鉴前人所做工作,本文研究的内容如下:首先,根据本文亟需解决的问题构建数学模型并生成算法流程图,利用气象部门业务平台普遍使用的MICAPS第11类格点风场矢量数据进行数据预处理,按照国家气象中心发布的500hPa急流人工分析的技术要求识别出急流区域。在急流区域内,借鉴气象领域流线追踪算法进行急流初选节点追踪。其次,借助天气学方法、动力学方法、计算机图形学及计算机图像处理技术等相关学科的基本方法,在遵循天气动力学理论约束的前提下,提出了以单位矢量法和经纬度加权平均方法为核心进行急流天气系统自动分析的算法。利用急流区追踪出的初选节点,经过节点划分、急流节点计算、噪声节点剔除、急流绘制等步骤,解决了诸多关键性问题,最终实现500hPa急流自动分析的算法研究。最后,选取2013至2015年间MICAPS第11类格点矢量数据,利用本文提出的方法对高空天气系统进行急流自动分析实验,并将本文研究算法得出的结果与多年从业的气象预报员的结果做了定量分析计算。计算结果达到了研究预期目标,相对于气象人员人工绘制的方式,提高了工作效率,提升了气象领域自动化分析水平。
[Abstract]:In order to meet the needs of the development of meteorological services and improve the service capacity of meteorological services, combined with the development situation of modern weather forecasting business, The automatic analysis algorithm and technology of upper air weather system are further explored. The 500 HPA high altitude weather system located in the middle troposphere is particularly important for meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the artificial analysis experience of meteorological department, This paper studies a set of scientific and feasible automatic analysis algorithm for the jet stream at 500hPa level, which changes the present situation of meteorologists drawing jet stream manually by computer, further improves the efficiency of overall operational analysis of meteorological department, and improves the forecast to a certain extent. The content of this paper is as follows: firstly, according to the problems that need to be solved in this paper, the mathematical model is constructed and the algorithm flow chart is generated. The data are preprocessed by using the MICAPS type 11 grid wind vector data commonly used on the operational platform of meteorological department, and the jet area is identified according to the technical requirements of manual analysis of 500hPa jet issued by the National Meteorological Center. Using the streamline tracing algorithm in the meteorological field for reference to track the jet primary nodes. Secondly, with the help of weather methods, dynamics methods, computer graphics, computer image processing technology and other related basic methods, Based on the constraints of the theory of synoptic dynamics, an algorithm for automatic analysis of jet weather system based on unit vector method and longitude and latitude weighted averaging method is proposed. The calculation of jet nodes, the elimination of noise nodes and the rendering of jet flow have solved many key problems and finally realized the algorithm of automatic analysis of 500hPa jet flow. Finally, the 11th lattice vector data of MICAPS from 2013 to 2015 are selected. The method proposed in this paper is used to carry out the automatic analysis experiment of the jet current in the upper air weather system, and the results obtained by the algorithm in this paper and the results of the meteorological forecasters who have been employed for many years are quantitatively calculated. The calculated results reach the expected goal of the research. Compared with the manual drawing method, the work efficiency is improved and the level of automatic analysis in meteorological field is improved.
【学位授予单位】：北方民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P409

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