中国各省市固定资产投资的空间计量研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 01:46

本文选题：固定资产投资　切入点：空间权重矩阵　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济进入“新常态”,投资在新常态经济发展中起着更加关键性的作用。增加投资不仅仅是增加投资量,如何扩大有效投资和提高投资效率更为重要。在新常态下,要深刻认识和理解把握投资的特点以及投资的有效性,在这样的情形下,研究投资对经济发展的作用就显得重要而有意义。对于区域性经济问题的研究,要考虑研究对象自身以及研究对象外部的因素,利用空间计量会得到更符合实际的理论的结果,研究结果也会更具有现实意义。基于此,首先,本文进行空间相关性度量,包括空间集聚性和空间异质性;之后,根据相关性,确定三种空间矩阵:邻接权重矩阵、经济权重矩阵和嵌套权重矩阵;在模型选择上,针对截面数据和面板数据构建不同类型的模型,在截面数据中,分别构建了空间滞后模型、空间误差模型、空间杜宾模型和空间杜宾误差模型四种,在面板数据中,加入固定效应和随机效用进行模型拓展。同时针对嵌套权重进行了探索性分析,从而确定在投资对经济发展的影响过程中,地理因素和经济因素是如何起作用的。研究结果表明:(1)在不同时点上,不同省份以及不同地区之间的投资以及投资率存在着差距,而投资率的差异有降低的趋势。(2)不同权重在空间相关性上表现的不尽相同,邻接权重的在空间上的影响逐渐趋稳,经济权重在空间上的影响有上升趋势,并且经济权重的Moran’s I指数影响更大。(3)当本省投资不好时,要发挥经济权重起到的交互作用,要加强近邻地区之间的交流合作,特别是华北地区和华东地区,此时的促进作用是相互的,会对彼此经济发展起到促进作用;而当本省投资较多、投资强度较大时,要充分发挥投资的交互作用,此时经济权重会更加起作用,因此要加强和经济水平较高省份的交流合作。
[Abstract]:As China's economy enters the "new normal", investment plays a more critical role in the development of the new normal economy. In order to have a deep understanding and understanding of the characteristics of investment and the effectiveness of investment, it is important and meaningful to study the role of investment in economic development under such circumstances. It is necessary to consider the research object itself and the external factors of the research object, and the results of the research will be more realistic because of the use of spatial metrology. Based on this, firstly, this paper measures the spatial correlation. It includes spatial agglomeration and spatial heterogeneity. Then, according to the correlation, three kinds of spatial matrices are determined: neighbor weight matrix, economic weight matrix and nested weight matrix. In the section data, the spatial lag model, the spatial error model, the spatial Dobbin model and the spatial Dobbin error model are constructed for the cross-section data and panel data, respectively, and in the panel data, four kinds of spatial lag model, spatial error model, spatial Dobbin model and spatial Dobbin error model are constructed. The fixed effect and random utility are added to expand the model. At the same time, the nested weights are analyzed to determine the impact of investment on economic development. How do geographical and economic factors work? the results show that there are differences in investment and investment rates between different provinces and regions at different points in time. However, the difference of investment rate has a decreasing trend. (2) the spatial correlation of different weights is different, the influence of adjacent weight on space tends to stabilize gradually, and the influence of economic weight on space tends to rise. And the Moran's I index with economic weight has a greater impact.) when the investment in this province is not good, it is necessary to give play to the interaction played by the economic weight, and to strengthen the exchange and cooperation between the neighboring regions, especially in North China and East China. At this time, the promotion role is mutual and will promote each other's economic development. When the province has more investment and greater investment intensity, it is necessary to give full play to the interaction of investment, so that the economic weight will play a more important role. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with provinces with relatively high economic levels.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F283

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