输气管道调峰方案模拟与优化研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 12:21

本文关键词：输气管道调峰方案模拟与优化研究　出处：《西南石油大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

更多相关文章：调峰 负荷预测 方案评价 SPS 储气库

【摘要】：天然气作为一种清洁能源,消费需求量逐年增长。虽然我国天然气供应能力在不断提升,但由于消费需求增长快速,所以不可避免地会存在供气与用气不均衡问题。如何保证下游用户平稳用气,是天然气管道运营工作中的重点,本文的研究就是在这样的背景下提出的。本文通过使用MATLAB编程,对单一的灰色预测模型和人工神经网络预测模型进行预测分析,结合两种方法的优点,提出了一种基于灰色模型和人工神经网络的天然气负荷组合预测模型,其实质是一种残差修正型组合预测模型。经检验,组合模型负荷预测量与实际值最贴近。同时,收集了CD管道工艺系统基础数据,使用瞬态水力模拟软件SPS构建了 CD管道仿真模型,并对模型进行了有效性检验和压力校核。在燃气负荷预测结果的基础上,本文分析了位于CD管道储气库下游I市的用气规律,得到I市峰月峰日的缺口气量,以此为基础数据对输气管道调峰方案进行了研究。考虑储气库是否投产,由CD管道承担I市城市燃气用户峰月峰日连续72小时的调峰任务,对全线压缩机开启方案和储气库的采气方案进行比选。对于储气库投运的调峰方案,提出了 "高峰采气" "平稳采气"两种采气原则,根据这两种原则分别制定了三种输量的储气库的采气方案,每种输量又制定了两种不同的开机方案,然后利用SPS软件对每种工况进行模拟并进行了方案初步分析,得到了预选调峰方案。接着采用了灰色关联分析法,理想解法和秩和比法三种方法对调峰方案分别评价,采用组合评价法"平均值法"将多种单一评价方法得到的评价结论进行组合。为了检验将单一的评价模型进行集合是否具有合理性,使用了 spearman等级关联系数法在模型集成前后进行了检验,基于组合模型评价出的排名前五的调峰方案反映了组合评价的可靠性。最后,在方案评价分析的基础上,提出了调峰方案的优化建议。
[Abstract]:Natural gas as a clean energy, consumer demand increased year by year. Although the supply of natural gas in China is on the rise, but due to the rapid growth in consumer demand, so inevitably there will be gas supply and gas imbalance. How to ensure the smooth downstream users of gas, natural gas is the key work in the pipeline operation. The research is proposed under this background. In this paper, through the use of MATLAB programming, analyze the single grey prediction model and artificial neural network prediction model, combining the advantages of the two methods, put forward a combination prediction model of gas load and grey model based on artificial neural network, its essence is a kind of the residual modified combination forecasting model. After test, the load forecasting model combined with the actual measurement value closest to. At the same time, to collect the basic data processing system using CD pipeline, hydraulic transient The simulation software SPS to construct the CD pipeline simulation model, and the model of the effectiveness of the inspection and checking the pressure. The predicted results based on gas load, this paper analyzes the gas storage pipe located downstream of CD I city gas law, gas gap get I City peak month peak day, as the research on the transmission gas pipeline peak basic data storage. Consider whether the production, by CD I of city gas pipeline to assume the user peak monthly peak day 72 consecutive hours of peak shaving tasks, gas recovery program on the full range of compressor open scheme and gas storage are compared. For peak gas storage operation, put forward the "peak of gas production" stable gas production "two gas production principle, according to the two principles were developed in three kinds of transportation amount of gas storage gas recovery program, each output has developed two different boot scheme, and then for each condition by using SPS software A preliminary analysis of the scheme and simulation, pre peak shaving scheme was obtained. Then by using the gray correlation analysis method, TOPSIS method and RSR method three peak were evaluated, using the combination evaluation method of "average method" will be a variety of single evaluation methods evaluation conclusion. In order to test the combination a single evaluation model set is reasonable, using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient method was tested in the model integration and combination evaluation model of the top five peaking scheme reflects the reliability based on combination evaluation. Finally, based on the analysis in project evaluation, put forward suggestions to optimize the peak.

【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE832

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