基于故障树理论的LNG船舶装卸货泄漏事故风险评估

发布时间：2018-03-18 10:11

本文选题：LNG船装卸作业　切入点：泄漏事故　出处：《浙江海洋大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着液化天然气(LNG)进出口量的日益增大,执行LNG船装卸货操作的频率也将更加频繁,针对LNG船安全性的研究已成为热点。其装卸作业环节是LNG海运中至关重要的环节,也是风险极高的一块。主要是因为LNG船靠泊时间短、作业计划紧、操作程序复杂,稍有不慎就会发生液货泄漏、船员冻伤甚至火灾爆炸等事故。一旦控制不力,无论是对船舶、港口、装卸泊位、海洋环境以及人员都将产生灾难性的事故后果。因此,对LNG船装卸货泄漏事故进行风险评估,对于加强LNG船装卸作业的安全管理,保护人员生命、健康、财产及海洋环境的安全有着重要意义。本文首先归纳总结了LNG固有的理化性质和潜在危险性,概述了LNG船的基本船型、装卸作业流程及自运营以来发生的历史事故;其次对LNG船装卸货中可能存在的风险因素进行危险辨识,主要考虑了人的不安全行为、设备故障和质量缺陷、管理因素及周边环境因素等;基于故障树理论,建立以LNG船装卸作业泄漏事故为顶事件的故障树模型,并对其进行定性和定量分析,求得各自的最小割集和结构重要度系数并排序,然后将该故障树模型应用于实例应用中,计算出LNG船发生装卸作业泄漏事故的概率;同时利用事故模拟软件,对某LNG加注站项目进行LNG泄漏事故模拟,定量计算了LNG船装卸作业发生泄漏事故后产生池火、云团扩散、蒸气云爆炸、喷射火、闪火、BLEVE火球事故的危害程度及范围;最后提出事故防范的建议及措施,以期为航运管理当局和决策者提供重要的参考依据,在一定程度上降低事故的发生概率,提高LNG运输船的安全水平。
[Abstract]:With the increasing import and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the frequency of carrying out the loading and unloading operations of LNG ships will become more frequent, and the research on the safety of LNG ships has become a hot spot. It is also a very risky piece. It is mainly because of the short berthing time, tight operation plan, complicated operation procedure, and some accidents, such as liquid leakage, crew frostbite or even fire explosion, etc. Once the control is weak, whether it is for the ship, Port, loading and unloading berth, marine environment and personnel will have disastrous accident consequence. Therefore, the risk assessment of LNG ship loading and unloading leakage accident will strengthen the safety management of LNG ship loading and unloading operation, protect the life and health of LNG ship, The safety of property and marine environment is of great significance. Firstly, the physical and chemical properties and potential hazards of LNG are summarized, and the basic ship types, loading and unloading process and historical accidents occurring since operation of LNG are summarized. Secondly, the risk factors in loading and unloading of LNG ship are identified, which mainly consider the unsafe behavior of human, equipment failure and quality defect, management factors and surrounding environmental factors, etc. A fault tree model with leakage accident as the top event in LNG loading and unloading operation is established, and its qualitative and quantitative analysis are carried out, and their minimum cut sets and structural importance coefficients are obtained and sorted. Then, the fault tree model is applied to the application of an example. The probability of LNG ship leakage accident occurred in loading and unloading operation was calculated, and the LNG leakage accident was simulated on a LNG filling station project by using the accident simulation software, and the pool fire and cloud diffusion after the LNG ship loading and unloading accident occurred were calculated quantitatively. The harm degree and scope of BLEVE fireball accident caused by steam cloud explosion, jet fire and flash fire are put forward. Finally, some suggestions and measures are put forward to provide important reference for shipping management authorities and decision makers. To a certain extent, the probability of accidents is reduced and the safety level of LNG transporters is improved.
【学位授予单位】：浙江海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U698.6

【参考文献】