合肥经济圈生态风险评价及对策研究

发布时间：2018-07-14 09:18

【摘要】：生态风险是具有不确定性的事件或灾害对生态系统及其组分可能产生的不利作用,具有不确定性、危害性、客观性和动态性等特点。生态风险评价是研究由于暴露于一种或多种动因而导致正在发生或者可能发生不良生态效应的过程。其目的主要在于为降低环境污染或生态破坏提供相应的科学依据。生态风险评价的研究尺度已经从以往单纯的对某一项目或地点的评价,逐步发展为区域生态风险评价,为进一步加强区域风险管理提供理论和技术支持。合肥经济圈是以安徽省省会合肥市为核心与周边城市共同组成的具有内在产业联系的经济复合体,由4个地级市(合肥市、淮南市、六安市、滁州市)和1个县级市(安庆市的桐城市)组成。近年来,随着合肥经济圈城市经济的迅速发展,大量的人口涌向城市,随之而来的是自然资源消耗和城镇环境污染等问题变得越来越显著和集中,因此使经济圈面临着更多的生态风险。本研究根据压力-状态-响应(Pressure-State-Response,PSR)模型、碳排放计算方法和三维生态足迹理论对合肥经济圈的生态环境状况进行评估。其中,通过PSR模型将组成合肥经济圈的5个城市作为基本评价单元,选取24项指标构建了生态风险评价指标体系,以熵权法为依据,结合正负权重对指标赋权,从压力指数、状态指数和响应指数三个一级指标出发,对经济圈内部各地市的生态风险要素进行量化评价。结果表明:①合肥经济圈自2009年成立以来至2014年,除2010年比2009年下降了 1.30%,2014年比2013年下降了 7.00%之外,其余年份生态风险指数一直维持在0.20;②合肥经济圈各地市影响生态风险指数的要素各不相同。淮南市的生态风险值主要受工业排放的二氧化硫与污水影响,贡献率为64.11%;合肥市受到城市化扩张过程中产生的工业污染、征用土地面积以及人造环境的增加三个要素影响较为显著,贡献率为74.87%;滁州市的生态风险状况主要受压力指数中的工业污水排放量和工业二氧化硫两大要素影响,贡献率为37.86%;六安市的生态风险状况与其林业生产活动的关系较为密切,贡献率为34.62%;桐城市轻工产业的扩张成为对自然生态扰动的重要因素,贡献率为67.02%。③工业生产过程中排放的工业废气、废水和粉尘以及城市扩张过程中不断索取土地,是促使合肥经济圈生态风险增加的主要因素。本研究揭示了合肥经济圈区域内的生态风险状况,对制定和实施一系列科学的生态规划策略具有重要的参考价值,提出如下对策:采用清洁生产技术,实施生态补偿,重视绿化建设,调整产业和能源结构,发展废物资源化技术,加强生态环境监督管理。
[Abstract]:Ecological risk is the possible adverse effect of uncertain events or disasters on the ecosystem and its components, which has the characteristics of uncertainty, harmfulness, objectivity and dynamics. Ecological risk assessment is a process of studying the adverse ecological effects that occur or may occur due to exposure to one or more kinds of motivations. The aim is to provide scientific basis for reducing environmental pollution or ecological damage. The research scale of ecological risk assessment has gradually developed into regional ecological risk assessment from simple evaluation of a project or location in the past, which provides theoretical and technical support for further strengthening regional risk management. The Hefei Economic Circle is an economic complex with inherent industrial ties with Hefei, the capital of Anhui Province, as the core and neighboring cities. It is composed of four prefecture-level cities (Hefei, Huainan, Lu'an). Chuzhou City) and 1 county city (Tongcheng City of Anqing City). In recent years, with the rapid development of the urban economy in Hefei economic circle, a large number of people flock to the city, followed by the consumption of natural resources and urban environmental pollution and other problems become more and more prominent and concentrated. Therefore, the economic circle is facing more ecological risks. Based on Pressure-State-Response response (PSR) model, carbon emission calculation method and three-dimensional ecological footprint theory, the ecological environment of Hefei economic circle was evaluated. Through the PSR model, the five cities forming Hefei economic circle are taken as the basic evaluation units, and 24 indexes are selected to construct the ecological risk evaluation index system. The index system is based on the entropy weight method and the positive and negative weights are combined to give weight to the index from the pressure index. Based on the state index and the response index, the ecological risk factors of each prefecture and city in the economic circle are quantitatively evaluated. The results show that since the founding of the Hefei Economic Circle in 2009 to 2014, the number of members of the Hefei Economic Circle has decreased by 1.30 percent in 2010 compared with 2009 and 7.00 percent in 2014 compared with 2013. The ecological risk index of other years has been maintained at 0.20 ~ 2. The factors affecting the ecological risk index are different in different cities of Hefei economic circle. The ecological risk value of Huainan City is mainly affected by the industrial discharge of sulfur dioxide and sewage, and the contribution rate is 64.11. The three factors of land expropriation and the increase of artificial environment have a significant effect, and the contribution rate is 74.87.The ecological risk of Chuzhou is mainly affected by the discharge of industrial sewage and the industrial sulfur dioxide in the pressure index. The contribution rate is 37.860.The ecological risk situation of Lu'an city is closely related to its forestry production activities, and the contribution rate is 34.62.The expansion of light industry in Tongcheng City has become an important factor of natural ecological disturbance. The contribution rate of 67.02.3 industrial waste gas, waste water and dust, as well as urban expansion, is the main factor to increase the ecological risk of Hefei economic circle. This study reveals the ecological risk situation in Hefei economic circle, which has important reference value for the formulation and implementation of a series of scientific ecological planning strategies, and puts forward the following countermeasures: adopting cleaner production technology, implementing ecological compensation, Attention should be paid to greening construction, adjustment of industry and energy structure, development of waste recycling technology and strengthening of ecological environment supervision and management.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X826

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