节能技术与能源结构对我国钢铁产业碳排放影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 14:07

本文关键词：节能技术与能源结构对我国钢铁产业碳排放影响研究　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：钢铁产业的二氧化碳排放量占中国社会总二氧化碳排放量的10%以上,降低钢铁产业的二氧化碳排放能有助于减少社会总碳排放量,而提高节能技术水平或者优化能源结构能减少排放。然而我国钢铁产业处于一个复杂的社会经济环境中。那么基于复杂环境分析节能技术和能源结构对我国钢铁产业碳排放影响,有助于更好的发现二者与钢铁产业碳排放的关系,是制定节能减排政策的理论基础。因此本文采取系统动力学方法,站在节能技术和能源结构的角度,构建“能耗—碳排放”系统动力学模型,模拟仿真了四类不同情景下,节能技术和能源结构对我国钢铁产业碳排放的影响。(1)界定了我国钢铁产业“能耗—碳排放”系统边界。“能耗—碳排放”系统是指在国民经济和钢铁产业发展的背景下,由经济、人口、钢铁产业、能源消耗、二氧化碳排放等多种系统要素耦合而成的复杂系统。整个系统模型包括人口经济子系统、钢铁产能子系统、钢铁消费子系统和能耗碳排放子系统。这四个子系统相互关联、互为影响。(2)构建了我国钢铁产业“能耗—碳排放”系统动力学模型。通过建立因果关系图和系统流图将四个子系统的各要素关联起来,从定性和定量的角度分析节能技术和能源结构调整对能耗碳排放的影响。然后对系统进行检验,并对节能技术进步率、天然气消耗占比、焦炭消耗占比、煤炭消耗占比、电力消耗占比等变量进行敏感性分析,结果发现系统中二氧化碳排放对这五个要素敏感。(3)设定四类情景,模拟仿真了2016 2030年节能技术和能源结构对我国钢铁产业碳排放的影响。这四类情景分别为:中国钢铁产业碳排放情景、中国钢铁产业节能技术情景、中国钢铁产业能源结构调整情景、中国钢铁产业综合情景。中国钢铁产业碳排放情景下,当节能技术进步率为0.7%,化石能源消耗占比为89%,电力消耗占比为11%,要满足2020年能耗总量下降10%以上,2020年粗钢产量比2016年的增长幅度不能超过3.9%。中国钢铁产业节能技术情景下,三种情景下钢铁总碳排量之间的差异随着时间的推移而扩大。这意味着,节能技术对于减排的效果逐步增强。中国钢铁产业能源结构调整情景下,三种情景下碳排放强度之间的差距表现为缩小的趋势。碳排放强度虽然在逐年减少,但是从长远来看当化石能源消耗占比仍旧在79%以上时,能源结构调整所起的减排影响不够带来显著的差异性。中国钢铁产业综合情景下,当化石能耗占比超过79%时,高技术进步率、高耗能所带来的减排效果与低技术进步率、低耗能的减排效果,随着时间的推移逐渐趋近。总的来看,四类情景均能达到《钢铁工业调整升级规划(2016 2020年)》和《携手构建合作共赢、公平合理的气候变化治理机制》的节能减排目标。
[Abstract]:Carbon dioxide emissions from the steel industry account for more than 10% of China's total carbon dioxide emissions. Reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the steel industry can help reduce the total carbon emissions of the society. However, China's iron and steel industry is in a complex social and economic environment. Based on the complex environment, energy saving technology and energy structure can be analyzed to China's iron and steel industry. The impact of industrial carbon emissions. Help to better find the relationship between the two and the carbon emissions of steel industry, is the theoretical basis for the formulation of energy saving and emission reduction policies. Therefore, this paper adopts the system dynamics approach, standing in the perspective of energy saving technology and energy structure. The system dynamics model of "energy consumption and carbon emission" is constructed, and four different scenarios are simulated. Influence of Energy-saving Technology and Energy structure on carbon Emission from Iron and Steel Industry in China. This paper defines the boundary of "energy consumption-carbon emission" system in China's iron and steel industry. "energy consumption-carbon emission" system refers to the background of the development of national economy and iron and steel industry. The complex system is composed of economy, population, iron and steel industry, energy consumption, carbon dioxide emission and so on. The whole system model includes population economy subsystem, iron and steel capacity subsystem. Steel consumption subsystem and energy consumption carbon emission subsystem. These four subsystems are related to each other. The system dynamics model of energy consumption and carbon emission in China's iron and steel industry is constructed. The causality diagram and the system flow diagram are established to correlate the elements of the four subsystems. The effects of energy saving technology and energy structure adjustment on energy consumption and carbon emissions are analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Then the system is tested, and the rate of technological progress, natural gas consumption and coke consumption are analyzed. The results show that carbon dioxide emissions in the system are sensitive to these five factors. The effects of energy saving technology and energy structure on carbon emissions of China's iron and steel industry in 2030 are simulated and simulated. The four scenarios are: carbon emission scenarios of China's iron and steel industry. The energy saving technology situation of China's iron and steel industry, the energy structure adjustment situation of China's steel industry, the comprehensive situation of China's steel industry. Under the carbon emission scenario of China's iron and steel industry, the rate of progress of energy-saving technology is 0.7%. The proportion of fossil energy consumption is 89 and the proportion of electricity consumption is 11. In 2020, the total energy consumption should be reduced by more than 10%. The output of crude steel in 2020 can not exceed 3.9% compared with 2016. Under the circumstance of energy saving technology in China's iron and steel industry. Under the three scenarios, the difference between total carbon emissions of iron and steel increases with the passage of time. This means that the effect of energy saving technology on emission reduction is gradually enhanced. The difference between carbon emission intensity in the three scenarios shows a trend of narrowing. Although the carbon intensity is decreasing year by year, in the long run, when the proportion of fossil energy consumption is still more than 79%. The impact of energy restructuring on emission reduction is not enough to bring significant differences. In the comprehensive situation of China's steel industry, when the proportion of fossil energy consumption exceeds 79%, the rate of high-tech progress is high. The emission reduction effect caused by high energy consumption and low technological progress rate, low energy consumption emission reduction effect, with the passage of time, gradually approaching. Generally speaking. The four scenarios can achieve the energy saving and emission reduction targets of "Iron and Steel Industry Adjustment and upgrading Program" and "working together to build a win-win, fair and reasonable climate change management mechanism".
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X322;F426.31

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