中国大气污染物排放量变动影响因素分析与精准减排

发布时间：2018-06-17 01:06

本文选题：中国制造业 + 大气污染　；参考：《山东大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：大气污染是中国面临的最严峻的环境问题之一。社会各界对大气污染关注程度日益提高,各级环保部门对全国空气质量进行实时发布,社会公众对企业的排污行为、政府的环境监管行为进行着全面有效的监督。政府部门也把防污治霾作为不容忽视的工作任务,产业结构调整、重污染行业去产能、新环境保护税法出台等,都成为"蓝天保卫战"的重要举措。大气污染作为一个全球性的环境问题,在已经完成工业化革命的发达国家出现时间较早,比如1952年的"伦敦烟雾事件"就被列入二十世纪十大环境公害事件之一。处于工业化进程中的国家也在尽力避免"先污染后治理",努力平衡经济发展与环境保护的关系。学术界对大气污染现象的研究内容不断丰富与深入,论证愈发严谨。自然科学领域对各类大气污染物的来源进行探索分析,社会科学领域力图研究各类社会经济因素对大气污染的影响,交叉学科的分析使得对大气污染的相关研究更加完善与精确。这为大气污染的进一步研究提供了详实的素材案例,也为防治大气污染环境政策的制定提供了很好的借鉴。但是,单从大气污染呈现出的严重性与危害性来认识这一环境问题是不够的。在分析美国大气污染的文献中,Levinson(2009)和Shapiro and Walker(2015)等的研究发现,美国制造业产出的持续增长并没有恶化其空气质量,相反大气污染物的排放量呈现出下降趋势。受到这一研究结果的启发,本篇论文对中国主要大气污染物排放量的相关统计内容进行了整合与计算,发现工业二氧化硫、工业烟尘、工业粉尘、可吸入颗粒物PM10和细颗粒物PM2.5等在全国层面、省份层面以及城市层面,均呈现出不同程度的波动下降趋势,这一现象也得到了其他文献的证实(Dean and Lovely 2010;Liu and Wang 2015;Zhang 2003)。因此,"大气污染物排放量呈现波动下降趋势"是本篇论文强调的重要事实,这一特点与"大气污染严重"这一现状相比非常容易被忽视。大气污染物排放量的下降就意味着空气质量的提高,尽管此结论与中国正在经受的严重大气污染并无冲突,却不如美国大气污染物排放量的下降趋势容易理解与接受:美国的情况符合环境库兹涅茨曲线假说,即在经济获得长足发展之后,环境质量会在跨过某个临界点后开始好转;虽然环境库兹涅茨曲线是否在中国存在并无定论,但中国是如何在经济高速发展的同时实现了大气环境的改善?同样是对影响中国大气污染的因素进行分析,本篇论文提出了一个新的论点来支持相关研究:中国大气污染严重并不能掩盖空气质量好转这一事实,立足于大气污染物排放量的实际变动情况,识别出促成中国大气污染减排的因素,既是对中国过去防污治霾工作的肯定,也可以为中国大气污染的进一步减排提供更有针对性的政策建议。从整体框架来讲,本篇论文对中国大气污染物排放量变动影响因素的分析共包括了九个章节内容,章与章之间的逻辑思路以及每章的具体内容如下:第一章是导论部分。在这一章对中国主要大气污染物排放量的实际数据进行了整合,基于此引出了本篇论文的研究背景,并对本篇论文的研究意义进行阐述,进而从研究思路和研究方法出发,对整个文章进行了概括性的介绍。除此之外还提出了本篇论文的潜在创新点与不足。第二章的文献综述对污染物排放量影响因素、作用机制和分析方法等进行梳理,这一章为本篇论文待研究问题提供了重要基础与借鉴。统筹考虑了数据的可获得性以及与已有研究的延续性,本篇论文选择了三种大气污染物进行分析:工业二氧化硫、工业烟尘和工业粉尘,而且限定以上工业废气均来自于制造业行业。从2001年到2010年,工业二氧化硫排放量上升了 34.48%,但是在2007年达到最高值,之后呈现出下降趋势;工业烟尘和工业粉尘则分别下降了 11.43%和43.10%,哪些因素直接影响了这三种大气污染物排放量的变动是本篇论文首先研究的问题。根据 Copeland and Taylor(1994),Grossman and Krueger(1995)和Levinson(2009)的研究结果,规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和国际贸易效应是直接影响到大气污染物排放量的四个因素。基于此,本篇论文在第三章结合了 Levinson(2009)的统计性分解方法和Miller and Blair(2009)的投入产出分析框架,对上述三种大气污染物在2001-2010年间的实际排放量进行统计性分解,测算规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和国际贸易效应这四个直接来源渠道对其排放量变动的影响程度。统计性分解结果显示,通过污染排放强度衡量的技术效应是这三种大气污染物排放量在这十年间呈现出波动下降趋势的主要原因,产量扩张代表的规模效应、不同行业占比代表的结构效应以及国际贸易可能带来的污染转移并没有明显的促进大气污染减排。统计性分解的结果为下文分析提供了方向和思路:既然技术效应在大气污染减排中发挥了主导作用,那又是由哪些社会经济因素推动了污染排放强度的下降?从第四章到第七章均为对中国大气污染物排放量呈现出的下降趋势以及污染排放强度变动原因的讨论与分析,其中第四章的一般均衡分析框架是第五章至第七章的理论基础,第五章和第六章实证分析的参数估计又是第七章反事实分析的基础。借鉴Shapiro and Walker(2015)的思路,第四章从消费者效用最大化、生产者利润最大化等经济学基本假设出发,把政府的环境规制、企业在出口活动中承担的贸易成本纳入分析框架,构建了一个可以反映企业层面和行业层面污染物排放量决定的理论模型。这一理论分析框架很好的反映了企业生产行为、政府环境监管和国际贸易在污染物排放量变动中的机制:企业生产活动所带来的污染物排放受到其生产力水平、环境规制强度和贸易成本的影响,因此这三者都会影响到污染排放强度;行业层面的污染物排放又会因为高污染行业和低污染行业占比的不同影响到污染物总排放量。根据第三章统计性分解的结论,污染排放强度代表的技术效应是中国制造业大气污染物排放量呈现波动下降趋势的主要原因,第四章的理论模型又显示污染排放强度受到生产力水平、环境规制强度和贸易成本的影响,因此对这三者在大气污染物排放量变动中的作用程度进行比较,就可以分析出中国制造业大气污染物排放量呈现波动下降趋势的主导因素。基于中国工业企业数据库2001-2007年企业层面的微观数据,第五章是对理论模型中污染排放强度和污染减排强度弹性系数的测算,这一弹性系数也代表了单位产出的大气污染减排支出,因此可以对不同行业的环境保护税进行测算。借鉴Hsieh and Ossa(2011)的研究结果,第六章得到不同行业产品间的替代弹性以及服从帕累托分布的生产力水平的参数。第五章和第六章的研究结果提供了理论模型所需的关键参数,第七章把这些参数估计结果带入到理论分析框架所得的均衡条件中,使用行业层面的数据对生产力水平、环境规制强度和国际贸易构建反事实情景值,应用反事实分析的方法估计三者在中国制造业2001-2007年大气污染物排放量变动中的影响程度。反事实分析的结果显示,环境规制足污染排放强度下降的主要原因,因此来自中国制造业的大气污染排放量在这七年间呈现出的减排趋势得益于环境规制。第八章之前的分析框架考虑了国家层面、行业层面以及企业层面的情景,除了在第三章的统计性分解中对中国不同省份污染排放强度的简单分析,并没有把中国地域间的差异考虑在内,而中国地域辽阔,不同地区的自然地理和社会经济状况千差万别,基于全国层面的分析并不能完整的反映中国大气污染实际情况。第八章对此进行了补充,通过构建一个两区域的共同代理模型,在环境负担公平的框架内,分析社会经济因素中的一个点—收入因素—对不同区域环境规制强度的影响。研究结果显示,不同地区经济发展水平的不同会对大气污染源的分布产生影响,因此收入因素会使得环境政策的实施有偏。最后一章是结论与政策建议。本篇论文的研究结果着重强调了两个方面。一方面,社会经济因素对中国大气污染物排放量变动产生影响的微观作用机制。能够对大气污染物排放量变动产生影响的因素非常多,厘清各个因素发挥作用的途径是至关重要的。对影响机制的分析既可以为经验分析提供因果逻辑,避免单纯的相关性分析;也可以为大气污染减排政策提供更加准确的方向。另一方面,异质性对大气污染物排放量变动产生的影响。不同国家、不同区域、不同时间段、不同行业、不同污染物等,都会对大气污染物排放量影响因素的分析结果产生影响,如果不对上述因素进行区分来研究大气污染必然会造成一定的偏误,基于这样的研究结果提出的防污治霾政策会有偏、无效甚至造成不利影响。本篇论文潜在的创新点包括以下三方面:第一,强调中国大气污染物排放量呈现出波动下降趋势的事实,以此作为研究的出发点。研究过程中,基于大气污染物实际排放量数据分析变动原因,注意区分了不同行业、不同地区和不同大气污染物对大气污染物排放量变动产生的异质性影响。基于研究结果为空气质量改善提出针对不同行业、不同地区和不同大气污染物的建议,即"精准减排",有利于提高大气污染进一步减排的效率。第二,理论分析从消费者效用最大化、生产者利润最大化的基本假设出发,把环境规制与贸易成本纳入同一框架之内,可以反映出企业污染物排放的典型特点,实现了对污染物排放量变动影响因素的综合考量,也有助于厘清各个因素在大气污染物排放量变动中的微观作用机制,这为实证分析部分提供了必要的理论基础;同时,实证分析的具体问题也实现了与中国当前环境政策的对接。研究发现,环境规制既直接影响到污染排放强度,也可以通过价格机制作用于生产力水平和贸易成本间接的影响到污染排放强度;污染排放强度下降又是中国大气污染物排放量呈现波动下降趋势的主导因素。第三,运用反事实分析法对各个因素在中国大气污染物排放量变动中的影响程度进行测算。大气污染物排放量的变动受到社会经济系统中多重因素的影响,此方法强调各个因素在截面上的相关性,因此在保持其他因素不变的情况下,把某一因素的反事实情景值带入到实际数据估计所得一般均衡模型中,就可以基于过去的数据推测这一因素对大气污染物排放产生的影响;因果关系相对明确,实证结果相对稳健。
[Abstract]:Air pollution is one of the most serious environmental problems facing China. All walks of life are paying more attention to air pollution. Environmental protection departments at all levels publish the national air quality in real time. The public has carried out full and effective supervision on the pollutant discharge behavior of enterprises and the government's environmental supervision behavior. The government departments have also made pollution prevention and cure haze. As a global environmental problem, air pollution, as a global environmental problem, appeared earlier in the developed countries that had completed the industrial revolution, such as the "London smog event" in 1952. It is one of the ten environmental pollution incidents in twentieth Century. The country in the process of industrialization is also trying to avoid "pollution after pollution first", and strive to balance the relationship between economic development and environmental protection. The research content of atmospheric pollution is constantly enriched and in-depth, and the evidence is more rigorous in the academic field. The source of the dye is explored and analyzed. The field of social science is trying to study the influence of various social and economic factors on air pollution. The analysis of interdisciplinary studies makes the study of atmospheric pollution more perfect and accurate. This provides a detailed case for further research on atmospheric pollution and a policy for the prevention and control of air pollution. However, it is not enough to recognize the environmental problem only from the severity and harmfulness of atmospheric pollution. In the literature of the analysis of American atmospheric pollution, Levinson (2009) and Shapiro and Walker (2015) have found that the continuous growth of US manufacturing output has not worsened its air quality. Inspired by the results of this study, this paper has integrated and calculated the relevant statistical contents of the main emission of air pollutants in China, and found that industrial sulfur dioxide, industrial dust, industrial dust, inhalable particulate matter PM10 and fine particulate matter PM2.5 are at the national level. This phenomenon has also been confirmed by other literature (Dean and Lovely 2010; Liu and Wang 2015; Zhang 2003). Therefore, "the emission of atmospheric pollutants shows a trend of fluctuation" is an important fact emphasized in this paper, which is characterized by "serious air pollution". The decline in atmospheric pollutant emissions means an increase in air quality, although there is no conflict with the serious atmospheric pollution that China is undergoing, but it is not as easy to understand and accept that the downward trend of air pollutants in the United States is easier than that in the United States: the situation in the United States meets the Kuznets curve of the environment. The hypothesis is that the environmental quality will begin to improve after stride over a certain critical point. Although there is no definite conclusion on whether the environmental Kuznets curve exists in China, how can China achieve the improvement of the atmosphere while the economy is developing at a high speed? The same is the analysis of the factors affecting China's air pollution. This paper puts forward a new argument to support the relevant research: the fact that China's air pollution is serious and can not cover up the improvement of air quality. Based on the actual changes in the emission of air pollutants, it identifies the factors contributing to the reduction of air pollution in China. It is both affirmative to China's past antifouling and haze treatment. The further emission reduction of air pollution in China provides more targeted policy recommendations. From the overall framework, the analysis of the factors affecting the changes in the emissions of air pollutants in China includes nine chapters, the logical ideas between chapters and chapters as well as the specific contents of each chapter are as follows: Chapter 1 is the introduction. The actual data of the main emission of air pollutants in China are integrated. Based on this, the research background of this paper is introduced, and the significance of this paper is expounded. From the research ideas and methods, the whole article is introduced briefly. Besides, the potential innovation of this paper is also put forward. The second chapter reviews the influence factors, the mechanism of action and the analysis method of the pollutant emission, which provides an important basis and reference for the problem to be studied in this paper. The availability of the data and the continuity of the existing research are considered as a whole, and three kinds of air pollutants are selected in this paper. Line analysis: industrial sulfur dioxide, industrial dust and industrial dust, and the above industrial waste gases are all derived from the manufacturing industry. From 2001 to 2010, industrial sulfur dioxide emissions increased by 34.48%, but reached the highest in 2007, followed by a downward trend; industrial dust and industrial dust dropped by 11.43% and 43.1, respectively. 0%, which factors directly affect the changes in the emission of these three kinds of air pollutants is the first problem in this paper. According to the results of Copeland and Taylor (1994), Grossman and Krueger (1995) and Levinson (2009), scale effect, structural effect, technical effect and international trade effect directly affect the emission of air pollutants. In this paper, in this paper, the third chapter combines the statistical decomposition method of Levinson (2009) and the input-output analysis framework of Miller and Blair (2009) to make a statistical decomposition of the actual emissions of the above three atmospheric pollutants in 2001-2010 years, and calculate the scale effect, the structure effect, the technical effect and international trade. The results of statistical decomposition show that the technical effect of the emission intensity measured by the four sources is the main reason for the fluctuation of the three kinds of air pollutants in the ten years, the scale effect of the output of Zhang Daibiao, the representative of the different industries. The structural effects and the possible pollution transfer in international trade did not significantly promote the emission reduction of air pollution. The results of statistical decomposition provide the direction and ideas for the following analysis: since the technical effect plays a leading role in the emission reduction of air pollution, which social and economic factors have promoted the emission intensity of the pollution. From the fourth chapter to the seventh chapter, we discuss and analyze the downward trend of the emission of air pollutants in China and the reasons for the change of the intensity of the pollution emission. The general equilibrium analysis framework of the fourth chapters is the theoretical basis of the fifth to seventh chapters, and the parameters of the fifth and sixth chapter analysis are also seventh chapters. Based on the idea of Shapiro and Walker (2015), the fourth chapter starts from the basic economic assumptions such as the maximization of consumer utility and the maximization of producer profits. The government's environmental regulation and the trade costs undertaken by enterprises in the export activities are included in the analysis framework, and one can reflect the enterprise level and the industry level. A theoretical model for determining the emission of pollutants. This theoretical analysis framework is a good reflection of the mechanism of enterprise production behavior, government environmental regulation and international trade in the change of pollutant emissions: the emission of pollutants brought by enterprise production activities is affected by its productivity level, the intensity of environmental regulation and the cost of trade, so the three According to the statistical decomposition of the third chapter, the technical effect of the pollution emission intensity represents the fluctuation and decline of the emission of air pollutants in China's manufacturing industry. The main reason of the trend is that the theoretical model of the fourth chapter also shows that the intensity of pollution emission is influenced by the level of productivity, the intensity of environmental regulation and the cost of trade. Therefore, the comparison of the role of the three in the change of the emission of air pollutants can be found out that the emission of air pollutants in China's manufacturing industry is fluctuating and decreasing. Based on the microcosmic data of the 2001-2007 year enterprise level of the Chinese industrial enterprise database, the fifth chapter calculates the emission intensity and the elastic coefficient of the pollution reduction intensity in the theoretical model. This elastic coefficient also represents the emission reduction of the air pollution in the unit output, so the environmental protection tax can be applied to different industries. Using the results of Hsieh and Ossa (2011), the sixth chapter obtains the substitution elasticity between different industries and the parameters of the productivity level that obeys the Pareto distribution. The results of the fifth and sixth chapters provide the key parameters for the theoretical model, and the seventh chapter brings these parameters into the theoretical analysis. In the equilibrium conditions obtained by the framework, the impact of the three people on the 2001-2007 year air pollutant emission changes in China's manufacturing industry is estimated by using the industry level data on the productivity level, environmental regulation intensity and international trade, and the anti fact analysis method is used to estimate the impact of the changes in the emission of air pollutants in China's manufacturing industry. The results of the anti fact analysis show that environmental regulation is the result of the anti fact analysis. The main reason for the decline of foot pollution emission intensity is that the emission reduction trend from China's manufacturing industry in the past seven years is due to environmental regulation. The analysis framework before the eighth chapter takes into account the national level, the industry level and the enterprise level, except in the statistical decomposition of the third chapter to China. The simple analysis of the pollution emission intensity in the same province has not taken into account the differences between China's regions, but China has a vast territory, and the natural geography and social and economic conditions in different regions vary widely, and the analysis based on the national level does not fully reflect the actual situation of China's air pollution. The eighth chapter is supplemented and constructed. A common agent model of two regions is built to analyze the impact of a point income factor on the intensity of environmental regulation in different regions in the framework of environmental equity. The results show that the difference in economic development level in different regions will affect the distribution of pollution sources in the atmosphere, so the income factors will make it possible The implementation of the environmental policy is biased. The final chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations. The results of this paper focus on two aspects. On the one hand, the micro effect mechanism of the social and economic factors on the changes in the emission of air pollutants in China. The analysis of the impact mechanism of various factors is essential. The analysis of the impact mechanism can not only provide causal logic for empirical analysis, avoid simple correlation analysis, but also provide more accurate direction for air pollution emission reduction policies. On the other hand, the effect of heterogeneity on the change of air pollutant emissions. Home, different regions, different time periods, different industries, different pollutants, etc., will affect the results of the analysis of the influence factors of the emission of air pollutants. If the above factors are not distinguished to study atmospheric pollution, some errors will inevitably be caused, and the policy of anti pollution and haze based on such research results will be biased and ineffective. The potential innovation points of this paper include the following three aspects: first, it emphasizes the fact that the emission of air pollutants in China presents a trend of fluctuation, which is the starting point of the study. In the process of the study, the causes of changes in the actual emissions of air pollutants are analyzed and the different industries and different areas are distinguished. Based on the results for air quality improvement, suggestions for different industries, different regions and different air pollutants, namely "precision emission reduction", are helpful to improve the efficiency of air pollution in one step. Second, theoretical analysis from the consumer efficiency. With the assumption of maximizing the profit of producers and incorporating the environmental regulations and trade costs into the same framework, it is possible to reverse the hypothesis of maximizing producer profits.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X51

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