高危生产系统动态风险的拓扑模型与定量方法研究

发布时间：2018-10-24 18:19

【摘要】：安全生产领域的重特大事故主要集中于煤矿、石油化工、交通运输等高危生产系统中。对这一类系统采取基于风险的管理与防控是当前实践与研究的重要方向。动态风险是一个广义的概念,是各种类型风险在时间维度上的拓展。风险一旦进入动态的时空中,其影响机理与演化特征的复杂性会极大增加,这对高危生产系统的安全运行造成了严峻的挑战。如何在小时间尺度的视角下,对系统动态风险演化中的复杂非线性特征进行深入分析和开展科学的定量评估,从而揭示系统风险的动态本质规律成为安全风险研究中的两个关键问题。因此,本文设计并构建了一套基于复杂网络的分析与定量方法,从拓扑模型的视角对系统动态风险的全过程演化特征进行描述与规律分析,并结合这些动态特性完成对系统动态风险的定量评估。本文的核心研究内容与创新贡献主要体现在以下方面:(1)为探索高危生产系统安全风险在动态演化过程中呈现的复杂性与多样性,本文基于事故致因理论,界定了具有信息可拓性与择优性的动态风险模态的概念及其F-I-C“风险因素→影响机理→可能后果”的信息元素架构。动态风险模态是一种适于不同规模高危生产系统的小时间尺度动态风险的描述方法,可以将每一时刻的风险关键信息进行有效组合。(2)基于复杂网络理论设计了高危生产系统的小时间尺度动态风险演化特征的拓扑分析方法,包括动态风险模态网络拓扑建模的映射方法;通过对关键风险模态、演化方式、演化媒介等拓扑特征分析,研究了系统动态风险的小时间尺度演化特征,使得对重特大后果风险的规律认识更加深入。(3)以动态风险模态网络拓扑模型为基础,并结合动态风险演化特征,构建了适于系统动态风险评估的连续性定量评价模型和相应的风险可接受标准确定方法,给出了系统动态风险预警模型。(4)以化工装置动态现实风险和煤矿行业动态事故风险作为微观与宏观层面的实证对象,检验了动态风险拓扑分析与定量模型方法的适用性、科学性和结果的可靠性,并参照分析结果给出了针对性的风险防控对策措施。
[Abstract]:Major accidents in the field of safety production are mainly concentrated in high-risk production systems such as coal mine, petrochemical industry, transportation and so on. It is an important direction of practice and research to take risk based management and prevention and control for this kind of system. Dynamic risk is a generalized concept, which is the extension of various types of risk in time dimension. Once the risk enters into the dynamic time and space, the complexity of its influence mechanism and evolution characteristics will increase greatly, which poses a severe challenge to the safe operation of the high risk production system. In the view of small time scale, the complex nonlinear characteristics in the evolution of system dynamic risk are deeply analyzed and the scientific quantitative evaluation is carried out. Thus revealing the dynamic nature of system risk becomes two key issues in the research of security risk. Therefore, this paper designs and constructs a set of analysis and quantitative methods based on complex network, describes and analyzes the evolution characteristics of the whole process of system dynamic risk from the perspective of topological model. Combined with these dynamic characteristics, the quantitative assessment of system dynamic risk is completed. The core research contents and innovative contributions of this paper are as follows: (1) in order to explore the complexity and diversity of high risk production system safety risks in the dynamic evolution process, this paper is based on accident cause theory. This paper defines the concept of dynamic risk mode with information extensibility and selectivity and the information element structure of F-I-C "risk factors influence mechanism and possible consequence". Dynamic risk mode is a small time scale dynamic risk description method suitable for high risk production systems of different scales. The key information of risk at every moment can be effectively combined. (2) based on the complex network theory, a topology analysis method of dynamic risk evolution characteristics in small time scale for high risk production systems is designed. The mapping method of dynamic risk modal network topology modeling is included, and the small time scale evolution characteristics of system dynamic risk are studied by analyzing the key risk modes, evolution media, and so on. It makes the understanding of the law of serious and serious consequence risk more in-depth. (3) based on the topological model of dynamic risk modal network, and combining with the characteristics of dynamic risk evolution, A continuous quantitative evaluation model suitable for system dynamic risk assessment and a corresponding method for determining acceptable risk criteria are constructed. The dynamic risk early warning model of the system is given. (4) taking the dynamic real risk of chemical plant and the dynamic accident risk of coal mine industry as the empirical objects at the micro and macro levels, the applicability of the dynamic risk topological analysis and quantitative model method is tested. Scientific nature and reliability of the results, and according to the results of the analysis of the corresponding risk prevention and control countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X913

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