铁路应急管理辅助决策方法研究

发布时间：2018-12-15 10:06

【摘要】：随着我国铁路建设的快速发展,大量新线建成并投入运营,铁路沿线各种未知风险因素也不断涌现,极大的增加了铁路突发事件发生的可能性,对铁路应急管理工作提出了更高要求。为满足新时期铁路应急工作需求,需要从铁路应急管理全局出发,深入剖析铁路应急管理中存在的问题,不断完善铁路应急管理体系建设;同时,铁路应急管理水平的提高,应急能力的提升,离不开先进理论和决策方法的支持,因此,结合铁路应急管理实际,积极探索科学、高效的应急管理辅助决策方法,是当前铁路应急管理工作亟待解决的问题。本文基于以上需求,在对我国铁路应急管理现状进行深入分析的基础上,挖掘其薄弱环节,为完善铁路应急管理体系建设提供参考建议;并重点针对铁路应急决策方法不科学、决策效率不高等突出问题,从突发事件生命周期角度出发,就铁路应急预案优选和突发事件应急方案决策方法进行研究。本文主要研究内容如下:(1)在对现有铁路应急管理理论及应急体系建设研究成果进行分析的基础上,从铁路应急管理的体制、机制、法制、预案体系和保障体系等5个环节出发,对铁路应急管理体系进行全面解析;总结我国铁路应急管理体系建设取得的成效,深入分析其存在的问题,并提出针对性的改进建议;将岗位应急处置办法纳入铁路应急预案体系范畴,建立铁路总公司─铁路局─基层组织─岗位应急处置办法的四级铁路应急预案体系;构建基于信息新技术的铁路应急管理信息系统框架,为完善铁路应急体系建设提供有益参考。(2)针对铁路应急预案优选问题,提出一种基于云模型和TOPSIS法的多属性群决策方法。从完整性、可操作性、针对性、责任明确性4个方面构建了铁路应急预案评估指标体系;基于云模型的不确定转换特性实现了决策者语言决策信息与定量数值之间的自然转换,利用综合云有效集结决策者属性评价信息,避免了决策信息的丢失;综合考虑各种主、客观因素影响,基于加权逆向云算法和熵权法得到群决策属性权重,运用TOPSIS法的相对贴近度计算实现了应急预案的优选,为铁路应急预案管理提供切实可行的参考。(3)针对铁路突发事件应急方案决策问题,综合考虑决策信息的随机性和模糊性,不同情景状态演变以及决策者行为特征等因素对决策过程的影响,提出一种基于前景理论的多属性群决策方法。选取可行性、时效性、抗风险性、经济性等4个方面构建了铁路应急方案决策指标体系;基于前景理论和云模型将决策者的定性语言评价信息转化为云前景价值,利用综合前景值最大原理构建决策者属性权重优化函数,进而确定群决策方案前景矩阵;基于群体一致性和极大熵原则确定决策者权重的基础上,依据各方案的综合前景值排序实现方案优选,为铁路突发事件应急方案选择提供辅助决策支持。(4)针对铁路突发事件应急方案决策问题中,决策属性之间相互关联且决策者决策行为的有限理性等特点,提出一种考虑后悔规避和属性关联的多属性群决策方法。基于后悔理论将决策者的后悔规避行为融入应急决策过程中,实现了属性决策信息向感知效用的转化;应用Choquet积分和Shapley值有效集结各关联属性感知效用,解决了应急决策属性的模糊性和相关性等问题;并依据各方案的综合感知效用值确定最优决策方案,为铁路应急方案决策提供了新的思路。以上研究进一步丰富和扩展了铁路应急管理理论和应急决策方法,对完善铁路应急管理体系,提高铁路应急管理效能具有较大的参考价值。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the railway construction in China, a large number of new lines have been built and put into operation, and various unknown risk factors along the railway are constantly emerging, which greatly increases the possibility of the occurrence of the railway emergency, and puts forward higher requirements for the emergency management of the railway. In order to meet the demand of the railway emergency work in the new period, the problems existing in the railway emergency management need to be analyzed in depth from the overall situation of the emergency management of the railway, and the construction of the emergency management system of the railway is continuously improved; and at the same time, the improvement of the emergency management level of the railway and the improvement of the emergency ability, With the support of the advanced theory and the decision-making method, it is the urgent problem that the current railway emergency management should be solved in the light of the fact that the railway emergency management is practical, the scientific and efficient emergency management auxiliary decision-making method is actively explored. Based on the above demand, on the basis of in-depth analysis of the present situation of the railway emergency management in China, the weak link of the railway is excavated, and the reference suggestions are provided to improve the construction of the railway emergency management system, and the problems such as the non-science of the railway emergency decision-making method and the high efficiency of decision-making are emphasized. From the perspective of the life cycle of the incident, the decision-making method of the emergency plan of the railway and the emergency plan of the emergency is studied. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) Based on the analysis of the existing research results of the existing railway emergency management theory and the emergency system, from the five links of the system, the mechanism, the legal system, the plan system and the guarantee system of the railway emergency management, comprehensively analyzing the railway emergency management system; summarizing the achievements of the construction of the railway emergency management system in China, and deeply analyzing the problems existing in the railway emergency management system, and putting forward corresponding improvement suggestions; and the post emergency treatment method is integrated into the category of the railway emergency plan system, The four-level emergency plan system of railway emergency management information system based on information-based new technology is established to provide a useful reference for improving the construction of railway emergency system. (2) A multi-attribute group decision-making method based on the cloud model and the TOPSIS method is proposed for the optimization of the emergency plan of the railway. the evaluation index system of the railway emergency plan is constructed from the aspects of integrity, operability, pertinence and accountability, and the natural conversion between the decision information of the decision maker and the quantitative value is realized based on the uncertainty conversion characteristic of the cloud model, the attribute evaluation information of the decision-maker is effectively assembled by the comprehensive cloud, the loss of the decision information is avoided, the influence of various main and objective factors is comprehensively considered, and the weight of the group decision attribute is obtained based on the weighted reverse cloud algorithm and the entropy weight method, The optimization of the emergency plan is realized by the relative proximity calculation of the TOPSIS method, which provides a practical reference for the management of the emergency plan of the railway. (3) Aiming at the decision-making problem of the emergency plan of the railway emergency, the influence of the stochastic and fuzziness of the decision-making information, the evolution of different scene states and the behavior characteristics of the decision-maker on the decision-making process is comprehensively considered, and a multi-attribute group decision-making method based on the foreground theory is put forward. the decision index system of the railway emergency plan is constructed in four aspects of feasibility, timeliness, risk, economy and the like; and the qualitative language evaluation information of the decision maker is converted into the cloud prospect value based on the foreground theory and the cloud model, in that invention, a decision-maker attribute weight optimization function is constructed by the maximum principle of the comprehensive foreground value, and then the foreground matrix of the group decision scheme is determined; on the basis of determining the weight of the decision maker based on the group consistency and the maximum entropy principle, the scheme is preferably implemented according to the comprehensive foreground value ordering realization scheme of each scheme, and provides auxiliary decision support for the selection of the emergency plan of the railway emergency. (4) In the case of the decision-making of the emergency plan of the railway emergency, the decision-making attribute of the decision-making behavior of the decision-maker is interrelated and the decision-making behavior of the decision-maker is limited, and a multi-attribute group decision-making method considering the regret-avoidance and the attribute association is put forward. Based on the regret theory, the decision-maker's regret-avoidance behavior is integrated into the emergency decision-making process, and the transformation of the attribute decision-making information to the perceived utility is realized; the application Choquet integral and the Shapley value are used to effectively assemble the perceived utility of each related attribute, and the problems of the fuzziness and the correlation of the emergency decision-making attribute are solved; and the optimal decision scheme is determined according to the comprehensive perceived utility value of each scheme, and a new train of thinking is provided for the decision of the railway emergency plan. The above research further enriches and extends the railway emergency management theory and the emergency decision-making method, and has great reference value for improving the railway emergency management system and improving the efficiency of the railway emergency management.
【学位授予单位】：中国铁道科学研究院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298

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