强震地表破裂评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 06:53

  本文选题：强震 + 地表破裂　； 参考：《中国地震局工程力学研究所》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：强震在合适的条件下可产生地表破裂,地表破裂通常会造成严重的灾害,工程建设中必须回答建设场地是否存在地震地表破裂的潜在危险这一问题,因此,地震地表破裂的评估是当前岩土工程抗震领域的研究热点问题之一。开展这一领域的研究工作对城市防灾规划、工程建设以及探索地震的发生机理等都具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。在地震地表破裂问题的研究中,工程上感兴趣的问题有三个方面。第一,发震断层发生强震时,地表产生破裂的可能性有多大;第二,如果产生地表破裂,破裂的长度和宽度多大,覆盖的范围有多大;第三,在覆盖范围内可能产生哪些震害。回答上述三个问题十分困难,这是因为地表破裂的发生受断层的活动性、强震的震级、震源深度和场地覆盖层厚度等多种因素的控制,并且与地震的发生一样,地表破裂的产生同样具有不确定性。一百多年来,学术界在这一领域开展了一系列的研究工作,取得了丰富的研究成果。本文在总结已有研究成果的基础上,围绕地震地表破裂数据库建设、地震地表破裂的概率计算方法、破裂规模的估计和地震地表破裂评估方法的工程应用等方面开展了系统的研究工作,取得如下主要成果。1、地震地表破裂的研究综述。本文系统的总结、归纳了地震地表破裂这一科学和技术问题的研究历程,评述了当前地震地表破裂研究领域的前沿成果,指出了存在的问题和今后在这一领域需要继续开展的研究工作。本文的这一部分工作对有兴趣开展这一方面研究工作的科技人员有一定的参考意义。2、建立了有工程特色的地震地表破裂数据库。广泛收集了历史地震和现代地震资料,对历史地震资料进行了认真的辨析和核实,给出了可靠度的标识,制定了数据录入标准,建立了目前国内最为丰富的地表破裂的数据资料库。这一工作为开展地震地表破裂研究工作提供了宝贵的基础资料。3、本文将Logistic回归分析方法引入到地震地表破裂评价中。逻辑回归分析是研究多变量参与、预测某一事件发生概率的数学分析模型,由于对自变量约束弱化而广泛应用于工程、经济和医学等领域。本文介绍了逻辑回归方法的原理和用于地震地表破裂概率预测的适宜性,确定了评价因子及分级,应用SPSS软件及matlab程序进行了数据计算和显著性检验,并用汶川地震和于田地震等实例证明了这一方法应用于地震地表破裂概率评估是合适的。这一工作实现了地表破裂评估结果的概率表达。4、统计给出了地表破裂的几何参数与震级的关系。在现有资料的基础上,用最小二乘法拟合了地表破裂长度、宽度、水平位错和垂直位错与震级的关系,分别给出了中国大陆、中国西部、中国东部、中国西部走滑断层、中国西部正断层和中国西部逆断层对应的统计关系式,给出了相关系数和剩余方差。同时,统计了震级分别为6.0-6.4、6.5-6.9、7.0-7.4、7.5-7.9和8.0-8.5时,不同破裂长度、宽度、水平位错和垂直位错量的发生频度。上述工作建立了适用于中国大陆地区的震级与地表破裂参数关系式。5、提出了地震地表破裂的工程评估方法。本文在综合考虑断层的活动性、发震断层的上限震级以及覆盖层厚度的基础上,应用本文提出的地震地表破裂可能性的概率评估方法和几何评估方法,给出了地震地表破裂的工程评估方法、危险性分级和工程评价的建议。本文的这一工作推进了活断层研究成果与工程应用的密切结合,为工程场地活断层工程应用提供了新的途径。本文建立的地震地表破裂数据库为进一步深入开展这一领域的研究提供了重要的基础资料。本文将Logistic分析方法应用到地震地表破裂的评价中,实现了地震地表破裂的概率表达,丰富了地震地表破裂的研究成果。本文提出的地震地表破裂评估的工作流程和统计给出的地震地表破裂几何参数表达式对工程场地地震地表破裂的评价具有一定的工程应用价值。
[Abstract]:Strong earthquakes can produce surface rupture under suitable conditions. Surface rupture usually causes serious disasters. In engineering construction, it is necessary to answer the question whether the construction site exists the potential danger of earthquake surface rupture. Therefore, the assessment of earthquake surface rupture is one of the hot issues in the field of earthquake resistance in geotechnical engineering. The research work of the domain has important theoretical significance and engineering application value for the urban disaster prevention planning, the construction of the engineering and the exploration of the mechanism of the earthquake. In the study of the surface rupture of the earthquake, there are three aspects of interest in the project. Second, how large is the length and width of the rupture and how large the cover is in the length and width of the rupture; third, what damage may occur in the coverage area. It is very difficult to answer the above three questions because the occurrence of the surface rupture is affected by the activity of the fault, the magnitude of the strong earthquake, the depth of the earthquake source and the thickness of the ground cover layer. In the past more than 100 years, the academic circle has carried out a series of research work in this field and gained a lot of research results. On the basis of summarizing the existing research results, this paper revolves around the construction of the seismic surface rupture database and the earthquake surface rupture. The systematic research work has been carried out on the probability calculation method, the estimation of the fracture scale and the engineering application of the seismic surface fracture assessment method. The main achievements of the earthquake surface rupture are summarized as follows:.1, the main achievements of the earthquake surface rupture. The existing problems and the future research work in this field are pointed out. This part of this paper has a certain reference significance to the scientific and technical personnel who are interested in carrying out the research work in this field.2. The historical earthquake and the modern seismic data are collected, the historical seismic data are carefully identified and verified, the identification of the reliability is given, the data entry standard is set up, and the most abundant data database of the surface rupture in China is set up. This work provides valuable foundation for the research of ground earthquake surface rupture. .3, in this paper, the Logistic regression analysis method is introduced into the evaluation of earthquake surface rupture. Logistic regression analysis is a mathematical model to study the participation of multivariable and predict the occurrence probability of an event. It is widely used in engineering, economic and medical fields because of the weakening of the constraints of independent variables. This paper introduces the principle of the logic regression method and the principle of the logic regression method. The suitability of the probability prediction for earthquake surface rupture, the evaluation factor and the classification are determined. The data calculation and the significance test are carried out by the SPSS software and the matlab program. The application of the Wenchuan earthquake and Yutian earthquake proves that this method is suitable for the earthquake surface rupture probability evaluation. On the basis of the existing data, the relationship between the length, the width, the horizontal dislocation and the vertical dislocation and the magnitude of the earthquake is fitted on the basis of the existing data, and the strike slip faults in China, Western China, Eastern China and Western China are given respectively by using the least square method on the basis of the existing data. The correlation coefficient of the normal fault in Western China and the reverse fault in Western China, the correlation coefficient and the residual variance are given. At the same time, the occurrence frequency of the rupture length, width, horizontal dislocation and vertical dislocation are calculated when the magnitude of the earthquake is 6.0-6.4,6.5-6.9,7.0-7.4,7.5-7.9 and 8.0-8.5 respectively. In this paper, based on the comprehensive consideration of the activity of the fault, the upper magnitude of the earthquake fault and the thickness of the cover layer, the probability evaluation method and the geometric evaluation method proposed in this paper are given in this paper, based on the relationship between the magnitude of the area and the parameters of the surface rupture parameters.5. The engineering evaluation method of seismic surface rupture, the classification of risk and the suggestion of engineering evaluation. This work has promoted the close combination of the research results of active faults and the application of the engineering, and provided a new way for the application of the active fault engineering in the engineering site. The research provides important basic data. In this paper, the Logistic analysis method is applied to the evaluation of the earthquake surface rupture, and the probability expression of the earthquake surface rupture is realized. The research results of the earthquake surface rupture are enriched. The work flow of the seismic surface fracture assessment and the geometric parameters of the earthquake surface rupture given in this paper are presented. The expression has certain engineering application value for the evaluation of earthquake ground surface ruptures in engineering sites.

【学位授予单位】：中国地震局工程力学研究所
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P315
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本文编号：1790907