短寿命气候污染物（SLCPs）的有效辐射强迫及对全球气候的影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-01 16:39

【摘要】：随着人类工业发展的突飞猛进,我们赖以生存的环境正在不断恶化,同时全球的气候也随之改变。如何减缓全球气候变化的速率,减少升温幅度,已经是人类面临的严峻问题之一。在控制空气中二氧化碳浓度的同时减排短寿命气候污染物(本文只考虑对流层臭氧、甲烷和黑碳气溶胶,简称SLCPs)是在短时间内减缓气候变化行之有效的办法之一。但各种气候污染物对温度的影响不同,且存在着相互作用,因此减排污染物最终会对未来气候产生怎样的影响,仍需要给予进一步的研究。本文利用国家气候中心第二代大气环流模式BCC_AGCM2.0.1与中国气象科学研究院气溶胶理化模式CUACE/Aero双向耦合所组成的气溶胶?气候耦合模式系统BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero,在政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告(IPCC AR5)最新提出的有效辐射强迫(ERF)概念框架下,结合最新的观测资料与典型排放情景(RCPs),分别模拟研究短寿命气候污染物的有效辐射强迫及其对全球气候的影响。主要结论如下:(1)自工业革命以来对流层臭氧浓度变化的有效辐射强迫全球平均值为0.46 W/m2,并由此造成全球平均近地面气温上升0.36°C,同时全球平均地表水汽通量和降水量的变化均为0.02 mm/day。由于对流层臭氧浓度的变化使中高纬度地区云量均呈现较为明显的增加,而在40°N附近地区云量却显著的减少,这与地表水汽蒸发量的变化和气流的辐合与辐散有关。(2)自工业革命以来大气中甲烷浓度变化的有效辐射强迫为0.49 W/m2(其浓度的空间不均与性产生的不确定性小于2%),由此造成全球平均近地面气温上升0.31°C,且升温主要分布在南北半球中高纬度地区。同时甲烷浓度增加造成的全球平均地表水汽通量和降水量的变化均为0.02 mm/day。而地表水汽通量的变化和气流的辐合与辐散的变化使高纬度地区云量增加,而中低纬度地区云量则有所减小。(3)2010年到2050年间,在保持现有人为污染物排放水平不变的情况下(RCP8.5)二氧化碳和SLCPs二者的浓度同时变化造成的全球平均有效辐射强迫为2.03 W/m2,从而使全球平均近地面气温上升1.95℃。而在该排放情景下单独改变CO2或SLCPs的浓度产生的有效辐射强迫分别为1.74 W/m2和0.16 W/m2,造成地表升温分别为1.72℃和0.26℃。而不计经济成本大力减排的情况下(RCP2.6)到2050年单独改变SLCPs浓度的有效辐射强迫为-0.38 W/m2,由此造成的全球平均近地面气温变化为-0.2℃;在此基础上同时改变二氧化碳浓度的情况下,全球平均近地面气温在2050年将上升0.5℃。在充分考虑经济成本合理减排的情况下(RCP4.5),2050年,单独改变SLCPs浓度的有效辐射强迫为-0.22W/m2,由此造成的全球平均近地面气温变化为-0.04℃;而同时改变二氧化碳的浓度将会使全球平均近地面气温将上升1.08℃。两种减排情景下到2050年全球平均近地面气温增量明显减小。(4)RCP4.5可能最接近未来减排实际情况的路径,与RCP8.5相比,到2050年SLCPs浓度变化使全球平均近地面气温下降了0.46℃,在北半球中高纬度地区降温较显著。同时全球平均地表水汽通量和降水量的变化均为-0.02 mm/day。云量的变化主要分布在南北半球中高纬地区,这可能与地表水汽蒸发量的变化以及气流的辐合与辐散有关。在南北半球近赤道地区降水量的变化较显著,中高纬度地区降水量以减少为主,而热带大部分地区降水量则有所增加。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the human industry, the environment on which we live is deteriorating and the global climate changes. How to slow down the rate of global climate change and reduce the range of temperature has been one of the serious problems faced by human beings. To control the concentration of two carbon dioxide in the air and reduce the short life climate pollution at the same time. This article only considers tropospheric ozone, methane and black carbon aerosols, SLCPs) is one of the effective ways to mitigate climate change in a short time. However, the effects of various climate pollutants on temperature are different, and there are interactions, so how the emission of pollutants will eventually affect the future climate will still need to be given. This paper uses the second generation atmospheric circulation model BCC_AGCM2.0.1 of the National Climate Center and the aerosol? Climate coupling model system of the aerosol physical and chemical model CUACE/Aero of the China Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CMA), BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero, in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC AR5). In the framework of the newly proposed effective radiation forcing (ERF) concept, combined with the latest observation data and typical emission scenarios (RCPs), the effective radiation forcing of short life climate pollutants and their effects on the global climate are simulated respectively. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the effective radiation forcing of tropospheric ozone concentration changes since the life of the industrial leather The average value of the ball is 0.46 W/m2, and the global average surface temperature rises by 0.36 degree C, and the global average surface water vapor flux and precipitation change are 0.02 mm/day. because of the change of troposphere ozone concentration, the cloud amount in the middle and high latitudes increases obviously, but the cloud amount in the vicinity of 40 degree N decreases significantly. This is related to the change of evaporation of surface water vapor and convergence and divergence of air flow. (2) the effective radiation forcing of methane concentration changes in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution is 0.49 W/m2 (the uncertainty of spatial heterogeneity and nature of its concentration is less than 2%), resulting in the global average near ground temperature rising by 0.31 degrees C, and the heating is mainly distributed in the north and the south. In the middle and high latitudes of the hemisphere, the global average surface water vapor flux and precipitation caused by the increase of methane concentration are all 0.02 mm/day. while the change of the surface water vapor flux and the change of the convergence and divergence of the air flow increase the cloud amount in the high latitudes, while the cloud amount in the middle and low latitudes decreases. (3) between 2010 and 2050, it is guaranteed. The global average effective radiation force caused by the simultaneous changes in the concentration of pollutant emission levels (RCP8.5) and SLCPs two is 2.03 W/m2, thus increasing the global average near ground temperature by 1.95 degrees centigrade. The surface temperature is 1.74 W/m2 and 0.16 W/m2, which causes the surface temperature to be 1.72 and 0.26, respectively. Without the economic cost, the effective radiation force of the SLCPs concentration by 2050 (RCP2.6) is -0.38 W/m2, and the global average near ground temperature change is -0.2 C; on this basis, the carbon dioxide concentration is changed at the same time. Under the circumstances, the global average near ground temperature will rise 0.5 degrees C in 2050. In full consideration of the reasonable economic cost of emission reduction (RCP4.5), in 2050, the effective radiation forcing of SLCPs concentration alone is -0.22W/m2, resulting in the global average near ground temperature change to -0.04 C; and the concentration of carbon dioxide will be changed at the same time. The average near ground temperature of the ball will rise by 1.08 degrees C. The global average near ground temperature increment in 2050 is obviously reduced by two kinds of emission reduction scenarios. (4) RCP4.5 may be closest to the path of future emission reduction. Compared with RCP8.5, the global average near surface gas temperature decreased by 0.46 degrees to the high latitude in the northern hemisphere, compared with the SLCPs concentration change in 2050. At the same time, the variation of the global average surface water vapor flux and precipitation is the change of -0.02 mm/day. cloud amount mainly in the middle and high latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres, which may be related to the change of the evaporation of the surface water vapor and the convergence and divergence of the air flow. The decrease of precipitation is mainly in the area, while the precipitation in most tropical regions increases.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X51;P461

【相似文献】