基于太阳风参数的电网GIC事件的预测方法研究

发布时间：2018-10-09 12:04

【摘要】：地磁暴侵害我国电网衍生的地磁感应电流(Geomagnetically Induced Current, GIC)研究取得了重要进展,包括揭示了地磁暴侵害电网衍生灾害性GIC的机理,探明了地磁暴对我国未来电网的严重危害,防御地磁暴电网灾害已成为需要解决的问题。本文提出研究基于太阳风参数预测GIC事件的方法,以期能够根据太阳风的观测数据计算、预测电网的GIC,为运行调度制定防灾策略提供决策支持。本文的主要工作及研究成果的创新点如下：针对我国甘肃750kV与330kV电网和新建的1000kV与500kV电网,采用电网GIC全节点模型和运用节点导纳矩阵算法,计算、分析了双电压等级电网的GIC相互作用,探明了双电压等级电网GIC的相互影响的特征,揭示了地磁暴侵害电网衍生灾害性GIC的机理,为研究防灾提供了数据依据。根据太阳风观测数据计算、预测电网GIC的需求,分析了管网GIC量值、频谱等特征参数与日冕物质抛射(Coronal Mass ejection, CME)和行星际太阳风特征参数的关系,以及电网GIC在磁暴各阶段的能量分布情况,探明了太阳风速度等参数对GIC的贡献,提出了利用太阳风数据预测GIC的思路。根据GIC特征参数与太阳风观测参数关系研究成果,提出运用空间物理科学家研究、建立的全球MHD模型预测电网GIC,据此,建立电网GIC事件与CME事件和行星际太阳风事件的初步联系,提出了利用行星际太阳风观测数据预测电网GIC的算法,根据GIC监测数据验证了算法有效性。本文的研究揭示了地磁暴衍生灾害性GIC机理,为地磁暴灾害列入国家重点研发计划专项提供了数据,研究、提出了基于太阳风观测数据预测电网GIC事件的方法,对运行调度和检修维护制定防灾策略具有重要的意义。
[Abstract]:Important progress has been made in the study of geomagnetic induced current (Geomagnetically Induced Current, GIC) induced by geomagnetic storms in China, including revealing the mechanism of geomagnetic storms against GIC derived from power grids, and exploring the serious harm of geomagnetic storms to the future power grid in China. Protection against geomagnetic storm grid disaster has become a problem to be solved. In this paper, a method for predicting GIC events based on solar wind parameters is proposed, which can be used to calculate the solar wind observation data, and to predict the GIC, of power grid to provide decision support for operational dispatching and disaster prevention strategy. The main work and innovations of this paper are as follows: for the Gansu 750kV and 330kV power grid and the newly built 1000kV and 500kV grid, the whole node model of power network GIC and the node admittance matrix algorithm are used to calculate. In this paper, the interaction of GIC in double-voltage grid is analyzed, the characteristics of GIC interaction in double-voltage power grid are explored, and the mechanism of geomagnetic storm induced disaster GIC is revealed, which provides a data basis for the study of disaster prevention. Based on the calculation of solar wind observation data, the demand of power grid GIC is forecasted. The relationship between the characteristic parameters of GIC, spectrum and coronal mass ejection (Coronal Mass ejection, CME) and interplanetary solar wind is analyzed. The contribution of solar wind velocity and other parameters to GIC is found out, and the idea of using solar wind data to predict GIC is put forward. Based on the research results of the relationship between GIC characteristic parameters and solar wind observation parameters, a global MHD model is established to predict the power grid GIC, based on the research of space physics scientists. A preliminary relationship between the GIC event and the CME event and the interplanetary solar wind event is established, and an algorithm for predicting the power grid GIC using the interplanetary solar wind observation data is proposed. The validity of the algorithm is verified by the GIC monitoring data. In this paper, the mechanism of geomagnetic storm derived disastrous GIC is revealed, which provides data for geomagnetic storm disaster to be included in the national key R & D program. A method for predicting GIC events in power grid based on solar wind observation data is proposed. It is of great significance to establish disaster prevention strategy for operation scheduling and maintenance.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P353;TM73

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