各国经济自治下全球气候合作治理政策模拟及系统研发

发布时间：2018-01-01 03:21

  本文关键词：各国经济自治下全球气候合作治理政策模拟及系统研发　出处：《华东师范大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 集成评估模型 CGE模型 碳排放 政策模拟 区域经济增长 全球碳减排

【摘要】：由气候变化所导致的全球升温及由此引发的一系列生态、环境问题,严重影响到人类的健康、社会的发展等方面,如何应对气候变化成为当前学术界关注的焦点。同时包含经济系统和气候系统的IAM(Integrated Assessment Model),作为目前最为全面的气候变化集成模型,已被广泛地应用于全球气候治理方案的评估中。然而,大部分IAM的经济系统采用宏观经济模型,缺乏对国家内部产业间经济的反应;碳排放计算模块未考虑到不同能源种类的差异,导致对碳排放总量的模拟存在一定的偏差。另一个现实的问题,全球经济出现逆全球化现象,各国经济创新呈现出"各顾各"的发展特点。因此,我们针对各国经济分别建立一般均衡系统,以逼近真实经济,再通过国际贸易对国际经济GDP溢出进行描述,来刻画全球经济。这个经济模型既能够反映各国经济独自的寻优行为,又关联了全球经济。本文完善发展了著名的DICE模型的扩展版MERICES模型,建立各国独立的CGE模型,添加能源消费结构,最终构建了一个包含经济系统、碳循环系统、气候反馈模块及其他统计辅助模块的新型集成评估模型一—EMRICES-2017(扩展的多区域气候经济学集成评估系统,Expanded Multi-Regional Intergated model of Climate and Economy System,2017 表明本文的系统具有继承性和历史联系性)。在经济系统方面,实现国家内部的经济均衡发展,EMRICES-2017构建了各个区域CGE模型,以反映经济发展的"各顾各"现象;在碳循环方面,为细致地刻画能源结构,增加能源消费模块,将能源种类细分为煤、油、天然气和非化石能源四类,实现技术进步内生化,引入随机冲击,改进了碳循环系统,最终实现CGE模型与气候集成评估模型的耦合。基于世界银行的分类标准,本文的研究区域为低收入国家、中等偏下收入国家、中等偏上收入国家、高收入国家、欧盟、中国、美国、俄罗斯、印度、日本,由于数据的可获取性,中国、美国、俄罗斯、印度、日本的经济模型为包含34个产业部门的CGE模型。在上述模型改进的基础上,本文通过分情景模拟分析,选择与真实情景最为接近的能源技术冲击情景作为基准情景,对世界各国或地区未来的经济发展形势和碳排放趋势进行了预测,分析了这些国家的产业结构、能源消费结构的变化,并模拟了不同技术进步导致的不同能源强度对各国或地区发展形势的影响。最后为了满足全球环境治理需求,对目前各国所提出的国家自主贡献(Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,INDCs)减排目标的效果进行模拟分析。通过模拟和分析,本文得到的主要研究结论如下:(1)在基准情景下,中国的GDP将在2046年超过欧盟,在2051年超过美国成为全球第一大经济体。美国、欧盟等发达国家的经济发展速度较慢,但人均GDP较高。全球碳排量呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,到2100年全球将升温3.38℃。中国碳高峰出现在2033年;欧盟的碳高峰出现在2028年;俄罗斯的碳高峰出现在2072年;印度的碳高峰出现在2059年;中等偏上收入国家的碳高峰出现在2057年;中等偏下收入国家的碳高峰出现在2076年;低收入国家的碳排放量一直处于上升趋势;美国和日本的碳排放则呈现出一直下降的趋势。(2)对主要国家(中国、美国、日本、印度、俄罗斯)的产业结构研究结果表明,第一产业占比下降是大多数国家经济结构发展的基本规律;发展中国家的产业结构变动幅度往往要大于发达国家,而变动幅度随着模拟时间的推移逐渐减小。中国、印度和俄罗斯的第二产业占比在模拟期间保持上升趋势,中国初始第二产业占比基数大,但印度的第二产业占比增加速度远远大于中国和俄罗斯,在模拟的后期其第二产业占比与中国的接近。(3)对主要国家(中国、美国、日本、印度、俄罗斯)的能源消费结构研究结果表明,非化石能源和天然气在模拟后期成为大多数国家主要的能源种类,中国、印度的能源消费结构中,煤所占的比例有所下降,但美国、日本、俄罗斯的能源消费结构中煤所占的比例却有所上升。(4)在完全自由排放情景下,即主要国家的能源消费结构保持2009年能源消费系数矩阵至2100年,全球将升温4.92℃。在此情景下,模拟后期由于气候系统的负面反馈,部分国家的经济出现衰退。日本、美国和中国的经济分别在2054年、2074年和2087年左右出现衰退,欧盟和中等偏上收入国家经济衰退分别出现在2082年和2088年。因此,实行碳减排政策,不仅是对全球气候治理的贡献,更是对自身经济发展的一种贡献。(5)在历史演化情景下,即采用历史能源消耗强度进行预测,到2100年全球碳高峰出现在2069年,全球将升温3.06℃,与基准情景相比下降了 0.31℃。(6)在INDC约束情景下,即各国家或地区在目标年份(2030年,美国为2025年)实现其提出的INDC减排目标,目标年份之后保持碳排放量不增加发展至2100年,全球碳排放在2030-2100年间呈现先不变后下降的趋势,全球将升温2.61 ℃,相比较与基准情景下降了 0.76℃,仍然高于升温2℃的目标。换言之,按INDC承诺,不可能实现21世纪末控制全球升温2℃的气候目标。
[Abstract]:Caused by climate change and global warming caused a series of ecological and environmental problems, a serious threat to human health, development and other aspects of society, how to deal with climate change has become the focus of attention of the academic circles. At the same time, including the economic system and the climate system IAM (Integrated Assessment Model), as currently the most climate change of comprehensive integration model, has been widely used in the assessment of climate governance programs in the world. However, most of the IAM economic system using macroeconomic model, the lack of internal economy between countries reaction; carbon emissions calculation module is not taking into account the difference between the different types of energy, leading to the existence of certain deviation on the simulation of the total carbon discharge. Another practical problem, the global economy has the inverse phenomenon of globalization, economic innovation presents "the development characteristics of the Gu". Therefore, we focus on The general equilibrium system are established to approximate the real economy, economy, and the international economic GDP spillover is described in international trade, to characterize the global economy. This economic model can not only reflect the searching behavior of world economy alone, and associated with the global economy. The extended version of this MERICES model and improve the development of the famous DICE model. The establishment of CGE model, independent countries, adding the energy consumption structure, set up an economic system including, carbon cycle, climate feedback module and other auxiliary modules of the new integrated statistical evaluation model of EMRICES-2017 (multi regional climate economics integrated evaluation system, the extended Expanded Multi-Regional Intergated model of Climate and Economy System, 2017 this paper shows that the system has inherited and historical connection). In the economic system, realize the national economy balanced internal hair The exhibition, EMRICES-2017 construction of various regional CGE model, to their own "phenomenon of economic development"; in the carbon cycle, for the detailed description of the energy structure, increase the energy consumption of energy will be divided into modules, types of coal, oil, natural gas and non fossil fuels in four categories, the technical progress in biochemistry the introduction of random shocks, improved the carbon cycle system, finally realize the coupling of CGE model and climate integrated assessment model. Based on the classification criteria of the world bank, the research area for low-income countries, middle-income countries, middle income countries, high-income countries, the European Union, the United States, Russia, China, India. Japan, due to the availability of data, China, the United States, Russia, India, Japan's economic model CGE model consists of 34 sectors. Based on the improved model, this paper analyzes the scenario simulation, selection and real The scene as close as the energy technology shock scenario baseline scenario, to other countries and regions in the world of the future economic development situation and trend of carbon emissions were predicted, the analysis of the industrial structure, the change of energy consumption structure, the influence of different energy intensity and simulate the different technological progress caused by the developing situation of the countries or regions finally. In order to meet the needs of global environmental governance, the national independent contribution which proposed to the present country (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs) were simulated and analyzed the effect of emission reduction targets. Through simulation and analysis, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) under the baseline scenario, the GDP will exceed the EU in China in 2046, more than the United States in 2051 to become the world's largest economy. The United States, European Union and other developed countries, the slow pace of economic development, but the per capita GDP global high. Carbon emissions showed a downward trend after the first rise, in 2100 the world will rise by 3.38 degrees. China carbon peak in 2033; the EU's carbon peak in 2028; Russia's carbon peak in 2072; India's carbon peak in 2059; the middle-income countries on the carbon peak in 2057; medium lower income countries carbon peak in 2076; carbon emissions in low income countries has been rising; the United States and Japan's carbon emissions show has been decreased. (2) of the major countries (the United States, Chinese, Japan, India, Russia) the industrial structure research results show that the proportion of the first industry fall is the basic rule of the development of economic structure in most countries; changes of industrial structure in developing countries is often greater than the developed countries, and changes in the magnitude of simulated over time was gradually decreased. Chinese, and India Russia's second industries accounted for in the simulation period keep rising trend, Chinese initial second industries accounted for the base, but India's second industry accounted for the increase rate is far greater than Chinese and Russia, in late second the simulation industry accounted for close to Chinese. (3) of the main countries (China, America, Japan and India, Russia) to study the structure of energy consumption. The results show that the non fossil energy and natural gas has become the main source of energy in most countries in the late China simulation, species, India's energy consumption structure, coal accounted for the proportion has declined, but the United States, Japan, Russia's coal energy consumption structure accounted for ratio has declined. Rise. (4) in a completely free emission scenario, the energy consumption structure is the main countries maintain 2009 energy consumption coefficient matrix to 2100, global warming will be 4.92 degrees. In this case, the simulation of late due to gas When the negative feedback system, part of the country's economic recession. In Japan, the United States and China economy respectively in 2054, 2074 and 2087 about a recession, the European Union and the middle income countries the economic recession in 2082 and 2088 respectively. Therefore, the implementation of carbon emission reduction policies, not only for the global climate governance more contribution. Is a contribution to its economic development. (5) in the historical evolution scenario, the history of energy consumption intensity forecasts, by 2100 global carbon peaked in 2069, global warming will be 3.06 degrees, compared with a decrease of 0.31 degrees. The baseline scenario (6) in the INDC restriction scenario, namely each country in the target year (2030 to 2025, America) to achieve the objectives of the proposed INDC reduction, keep carbon emissions without increasing development to 2100 target year, global carbon emissions in 2030-2100 years after the first. The trend of global warming will increase by 2.61 degrees. Compared with the baseline scenario, it will decrease by 0.76 degrees, which is still higher than the target of heating up to 2 degrees. In other words, according to INDC's commitment, it is impossible to achieve the goal of controlling global warming by 2 at the end of twenty-first Century.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F114.4;P467
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本文编号：1362713