政府主导投资行为的经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 00:16

  本文关键词：政府主导投资行为的经济效应研究　出处：《西安理工大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 政府主导投资行为 效应 政府投资 企业

【摘要】：上世纪80年代,我国开始由计划经济向市场经济逐渐过渡,虽然至今已经历了三十多年的历程,但是政府却成为市场的主要参与者和投资主体,其对经济的影响也越来越大。2008年全球金融危机爆发时期,我国政府提出了“4万亿”的经济刺激计划,地方政府的各种投资计划纷纷跟进,通过财政拨款和银行的信贷资金,以固定资产投资作为政府宏观经济调控的重要手段,为我国对抗金融风险稳定经济起到重要作用。然而,在我国的财政体制尚未健全、投资体制尚不完善的情况下,经济运行也出现了一些结构性问题,对我国经济的可持续发展形成阻碍。作为在我国经济发展中起关键因素的投资和我国目前重要的投资主体政府,其作用不可忽视。因此,在这一背景下从实证层面探究政府主导投资行为的经济效应,明确政府在资源配置中应扮演什么样的角色,对于规范政府行为,充分发挥市场作用,促进我国经济持续稳定增长具有重要意义。本文的主要发现为:(1)政府投资对于经济增长具有一定的拉动效应,但这种作用比较有限。政府主导投资行为中政府投资对于经济增长起到了积极的作用,使经济增长一定程度上得到提高,但这种作用是短暂的、低效的,影响力度有限,政府投资与经济增长之间并不具有长期均衡关系。政府投资更适用于应急措施,往往只能取得短期效应,这种高投入、低增长模式是一种非优的和不可持续的模式。(2)政府投资对居民消费具有抑制效应。政府进入竞争领域投资和对市场资源的损耗,导致民营资本的进入空间被挤占,民营资本投入减少,居民收入受损,结果政府投资支出与居民消费支出呈反向变动。政府投资、居民消费、政府消费支出、政府保障支出、金融发展程度之间具有着长期稳定的均衡关系。政府投资对居民消费的抑制效应需要一定的时滞才能体现出来。由于政府投资项目具有周期长、见效慢的特点,因而这种抑制效应对居民消费的影响需要较长时期才能体现出来。(3)政府投资的增长会引起固定资产投资的国内贷款额度增加,因此政府投资对固定资产投资的国内贷款额度具有扩张效应。政府投资和固定资产投资的国内贷款之间是单向引导关系,并不具有相互反馈的关系。随着时间的增长,政府投资、通货膨胀水平对固定资产投资的国内贷款额度的影响越来越显现出来,除了自身的影响外,政府投资对固定资产投资的国内贷款额度的影响最大。(4)政府投资会对民间投资产生影响,且总体上呈现负向关系。政府投资会挤出民间投资,造成民间投资的减少。在宏观经济波动较大的时期,中国政府积极的财政政策和宽松货币政策对民间投资具有明显的拉动效应,民间投资在积极的财政政策下由于经济增长的提高而变得活跃,但是随之而来的是被政府在宽松的货币政策下更多的信贷优势挤出,因此政府投资对民间投资兼具拉动和挤出效应,但长期表现为挤出效应;而稳健的财政和货币政策,则会使政府投资对民间投资具有拉动后保持稳态的作用。(5)政府投资对城乡居民收入差距具有显著的拉大效应,政府投资行为所蕴含的资金、政策支持和发展机会的不均等带来的垄断利润导致了城乡收入差距的持续扩大。通过对政府投资、固定资产投资的城乡差异、城乡居民收入差距之间建立的向量自回归模型进行协整分析,证明三者之间存在长期均衡关系,政府投资会引起城乡居民收入差距、固定资产投资的城乡差异的扩大。(6)政府的干预会对企业的投资机会产生影响,但在现有的财政体制下,最高层级的央企和最低层级的县以下政府的这种干预对企业投资机会的影响并不显著,而省、市一级政府对企业的介入干预,则会明显提高企业的投资机会,尤其是在制度环境差、市场发育落后的情况下,这种提高尤为明显;因为市场发育越完善,地方政府的行政力量和资源优势反而越得不到发挥。而在这种省、市级政府的介入干预起到积极作用的同时,也会导致发展机会的不平等和资源获取的不均衡。(7)在已经投资过度的情况下,民营企业高管具有政治关系与企业的投资绩效具有负相关关系。原因在于董事会高管人员的政治关系作为一种特殊的手段会影响企业的资源配置和生产经营,自上而下的政府干预会为民营企业继续投资提供更多资金支持和便利条件,使企业在已经过度投资的情况下没有及时调整投资决策,导致企业的投资绩效降低。然而如果投资适度,民营企业高管人员具有政治关系会促进企业的运转,提高民营企业的投资绩效。
[Abstract]:In 80s, China began to gradually transition from planned economy to market economy, although it has experienced thirty years of history, but the government has become a major player in the market and the investment subject, its impact on the economy is also growing.2008 global financial crisis period, the Chinese government put forward the "4 trillion" the economic stimulus plan, various local government investment plans have followed by financial allocations and bank credit funds, with fixed assets investment as an important means of economic regulation, China's financial risks against economic stability play an important role. However, in China's financial system is not perfect, the investment system is not under perfect conditions, economic operation there are some structural problems, the sustainable development of China economy. As hinder the formation in China's economic development plays a key factor of investment Capital and investment in China is an important subject of government, its role can not be ignored. Therefore, research on the economic effect of government investment behavior from the empirical level in this context, make it clear that the government should play what role in the allocation of resources, to regulate the behavior of the government, give full play to the role of the market, which is of great significance to continue steady economic growth in China. The main findings of this paper is: (1) government investment has a certain pulling effect on economic growth, but this effect is limited. The government led investment in government investment played a positive role in economic growth, the economic growth to some extent can be improved, but this effect is short, inefficient, impact is limited, does not have a long-term equilibrium relationship between government investment and economic growth. Government investment is more suitable for emergency measures, often only have short-term effects, this High input, low growth mode is a kind of non optimal and sustainable model. (2) the government investment has inhibitory effect on consumption. The government entered the field of competition on the market investment and resource consumption, leading to private capital into the space occupied, private capital investment to reduce the income of residents, damaged, the government investment expenditure and consumer spending showed the reverse changes. Government investment, consumption, government consumption expenditure, government expenditure, a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the degree of financial development. With the inhibitory effect of government investment on consumption need to delay certain reflected. Because of the government investment project has the characteristics of long cycle and slow effect. The effects of inhibition effect on consumption needs a longer period can be reflected. (3) the government investment growth will lead to investment in fixed assets in the amount of loans Therefore, the government increased investment in fixed asset investment in domestic loans. The expansionary effect between government investment and investment in fixed assets of domestic loans is a one-way causal relationship, does not have the relations of mutual feedback. With the increase of time, government investment, inflation level of investment in fixed assets of domestic loans appear more and more in addition, their effects, effects of government investment on fixed assets investment in the domestic loan amount is the largest. (4) the government investment will have an impact on private investment, and generally has a negative relationship. The government investment will be crowding out private investment, resulting in reduced private investment. In the macro economic fluctuation period, China the government's proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy has obvious pull effect on private investment, private investment in the active fiscal policy due to economic growth To improve and become active, but the government is in the loose monetary policy more credit advantage of extrusion, therefore the government investment on private investment both stimulating and crowding out effect, but the long-term performance of crowding out effect; and prudent fiscal and monetary policies, will keep steady in the role of the government is pulling on the folk investment after the investment. (5) the government investment has significant effect on the widening income gap between urban and rural residents, which contains the behavior of government investment funds, policy support and development opportunities brought by unequal monopoly profits led to the urban-rural income gap continued to widen. The government investment, the difference between urban and rural investment in fixed assets, the establishment of vector the income gap between urban and rural residents of the auto regression model and cointegration analysis, prove that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three, the government investment will cause the income gap between urban and rural residents, solid The difference between urban and rural areas to expand investment in fixed assets (6). The government intervention will impact on the investment opportunities, but in the present financial system, affecting the highest level of the central enterprises and the lowest level of the county government intervention in business investment opportunities is not significant, while the provincial, city level intervention on the enterprise, will significantly improve the enterprise investment opportunities, especially in the institutional environment, market development is backward, this improvement is remarkable; because the market development more perfect, the local government's administrative power and resources and is not play. In this province, the municipal government intervention to play a positive role at the same time, it will lead to the development of unequal opportunities and access to resources is not balanced. (7) in the already excessive investment case, private enterprise executives have political relationship with the company's performance is negative Related. Because the board of executives political relations as a special means will affect the resource allocation of the enterprise production and management, government intervention in the top-down will provide more financial support and facilities for private enterprises to continue to invest, to enable enterprises to adjust investment decisions without in case of excessive investment, resulting in the decrease of enterprises the performance of investment. However, if the investment is moderate, the executives of private enterprises with political relations will promote the operation of enterprises, improve the investment performance of private enterprises.

【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F812.45;F124.1
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本文编号：1438614