低碳交通背景下中国新能源汽车的市场扩散研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 13:17

  本文关键词： 新能源汽车 市场扩散 低碳交通 多Agent仿真　出处：《中国地质大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：全球气候变化对世界各国提出了低碳发展的要求。交通运输行业作为世界第二大碳排放行业,其碳排放量超过世界碳排放总量的五分之一。到2030年交通碳排放量将以1.7%的年增长率递增,且发展中国家及经济转型国家的交通碳排放增长率将会更高。为解决日益突出的燃油供求矛盾和环境污染问题,世界主要汽车生产国纷纷将推广新能源汽车作为发展低碳交通的国家战略。随着经济的快速发展,城市化进程的不断推进,我国居民出行需求的日益增长,汽车产销量迅猛提升,我国已连续7年位居世界第一。推广新能源汽车是我国应对能源安全、气候变化、环境保护和汽车产业转型升级的重要突破口。我国已颁布一系列新能源汽车政策规划,涉及宏观规划、制造标准、配套设施建设、购买补贴、扶持电价等诸多方面。政策的支持促进了新能源汽车的发展壮大,也导致新产品推广严重依赖政府扶持,市场的作用先天不足。随着技术的日趋成熟,新能源汽车的推广将必然由政府的财政补贴向市场机制过渡。如何有效地发挥市场的潜在力量,促进新能源汽车市场健康快速发展,这是我国“新经济”下的一个重要研究问题。因此,关注我国新能源汽车政策的新动向,积极探讨新能源汽车市场扩散中可能存在的有利及不利因素,运用仿真的方法对市场扩散进行模拟,得出一个全方位考虑、多维度扶持的新能源汽车产业政策新思想,将有利于促进我国新能源汽车产业绿色发展,使其从依赖政府扶持的“政策市”转向“大众化消费市”,早日达到我国新能源汽车发展的宏伟战略目标。本文首先以低碳交通为研究背景,对我国交通碳排放趋势进行分析,找出影响我国交通碳排放的主要因素；然后,通过对比分析国内外新能源汽车的发展历程与政策,根据我国新能源汽车市场发展的瓶颈,以创新产品扩散理论、社会网络理论、消费者行为理论为基础,对我国新能源汽车的市场扩散展开较为系统、全面的研究,对影响我国新能源汽车市场扩散的参与主体进行分析,进而紧密结合我国新能源汽车推广面临的实际问题,构建多类产品竞争下新能源汽车市场扩散多Agent仿真模型,对我国纯电动汽车和混合动力汽车的扩散进行仿真,并利用仿真数据对新能源汽车替代传统汽车使用的节能减排效果进行了估算；最后,得出我国推广新能源汽车的启示和政策建议。按照以上研究思路,在收集大量历史数据的基础上,运用多种方法及技术,得到的研究成果如下：(1)通过对低碳交通、新能源汽车、创新产品扩散、消费者行为等相关文献的充分研究,可知新能源汽车的扩散研究逐渐成为学者们关注的方向,但对于新能源市场扩散的研究十分鲜见；而运用仿真预测手段,探索我国新能源汽车发展由政府扶持转向市场化的相关研究尚未见系统报道。(2)利用1996-2013年的历史统计数据,对我国交通运输业的能源消费量和碳排放量进行了计算,发现柴油、汽油的消耗是我国交通运输能源碳排放增长的主要原因,且柴油、汽油的碳排放量呈现增长的趋势。运用扩展的交通碳排放Kaya恒等式和广义费雪指数法,对我国交通碳排放因素进行分解,就我国交通碳排放增长的贡献而言,经济增长的促进作用最大,虽然能源强度、人口规模和交通强度在总体上呈现促进作用,但作用小于经济增长。因此,要发展低碳交通,推广新能源汽车是我国汽车产业走向“绿色发展”的必经之路。(3)在对影响我国新能源汽车市场扩散的参与主体进行分析的基础上,构建了多类产品竞争下新能源汽车市场扩散多Agent仿真模型,结合未来市场发展趋势,创建了消费者购买新能源汽车的动机函数,用以模拟消费者的购买决策,并构建小世界网络,模拟消费者间的口碑效应；利用NetLogo仿真平台,对我国2016-2022年新能源汽车市场进行基础仿真和情景仿真,并对新能源汽车价格和使用便利性两个因素进行了灵敏度分析。仿真结果显示,新产品的进入将加剧新能源汽车市场的竞争,有利于新能源汽车的市场扩散；且纯电动汽车的市场扩散优于混合动力汽车,随着时间的推移,纯电动汽车在市场上处于主导地位,2022年纯电动汽车的市场份额为75%,混合动力汽车的市场份额为25%；且在短期内,我国消费者倾向于购买价格较低的纯电动汽车；相对于使用便利性因素而言,价格因素对于新能源汽车的市场扩散影响更大。(4)利用我国2016-2022年新能源汽车市场扩散仿真得到的纯电动汽车和混合动力汽车的市场份额和具体数量,通过问卷调查获得的消费者每日出行距离数据及占比,以及传统汽车、混合动力汽车的综合工况耗油量等数据,根据能源消费碳排放计算公式,对我国新能源汽车替代传统汽车下的节能减排效果进行估算,得到2016-2022年新能源汽车的节能减排潜力,累计节油量为1 148.2万吨,碳排放累计减少量为1180.1万吨。(5)根据国内外新能源汽车发展经验给我国带来的启示,结合新能源汽车市场扩散的仿真结果,为我国新能源汽车的推广提出了一揽子政策建议。一是加强对新能源汽车的宣传引导,提高消费者对新能源汽车的认同感,重点加强对年轻人的宣传力度,扩大政府采购的示范效应,扩大中小城市的试点范围；二是提升新能源汽车的技术研发,设立专项资金支持整车开发和品牌创建,开发纯电动汽车集成仿真技术平台,成立动力电池关键技术攻关联盟,成立驱动电机和整车控制系统联盟,大力发展国际技术和产业化合作；三是完善新能源汽车的充电设施建设,加快充电基础设施体系建设,加强配套电网保障能力,推进充电标准化与技术创新；四是充分发挥市场的力量,提升消费者满意度,鼓励新能源汽车制造企业间的竞争与合作,破除新能源汽车推广中的地方保护,完善新能源汽车准入管理规则,特别是对低价纯电动汽车的市场培育；五是完善我国新能源汽车的扶持政策,探索适合国情的扶持政策模式,完善市场激励机制,扩大限制政策应用范围,搭建新能源汽车技术研发平台,运用税收手段扩大新能源汽车竞争优势。应对汽车产业发展中的能源与环境危机,我国正大力推广新能源汽车替代传统汽车,促进汽车产业的转型与升级,并将此作为国家战略。在市场培育期,政府为新能源汽车发展提供大量扶持政策,但随着技术的不断成熟,购买补贴将退出。若能克服从依赖政府的“政策市”走向“大众化消费市”的发展瓶颈,我国新能源汽车的发展将进一步升级,最终实现国家制定的战略目标。本文运用仿真的方法对新能源汽车市场扩散进行模拟,找到了未来市场将向低价格、纯电动汽车发展的方向。结合我国实际情况,提出一个全方位考虑、多维度扶持的新能源汽车市场发展新思想,此成果有望在新能源汽车“新经济”的市场发展中做出突破性的贡献。
[Abstract]:Global climate change presents low carbon development requirements for countries around the world. The transportation industry as the world's second largest carbon emission industries, its carbon emissions exceed world carbon emissions by 2030 1/5. Traffic carbon emissions will increase at an annual growth rate of 1.7%, and the traffic carbon emissions in developing countries and countries with economies in transition the growth rate will be higher. In order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of fuel and environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent, the world's major automobile producing countries will have the promotion of new energy vehicles as a national strategy for the development of low carbon transport. With the rapid development of economy, city changes process, the increasing travel demand of residents in China, production and sales the automobile is increased rapidly, China has 7 consecutive years ranked first in the world. The promotion of new energy vehicles is to deal with China's energy security, climate change, environmental protection and the transformation and upgrading of key automobile industry To be a breakthrough. China has promulgated a series of new energy vehicle policy planning, including macro planning, manufacturing standards, facilities, purchase subsidies, price support and other aspects. Policy support to promote the development of new energy vehicles and growth, also leads to the promotion of new products depends heavily on government support, the role of the market. With the technology of congenitally deficient matures, the promotion of new energy vehicles will be bound by the government's financial subsidies to the market mechanism in transition. How to effectively play the potential power of the market, promote the healthy and rapid development of the new energy vehicle market, it is an important problem in China's "new economy". Therefore, attention to the new trend of new energy automobile policy in our country, and actively explore new energy automobile market diffusion may exist in the favorable and unfavorable factors, using the simulation method of market diffusion simulation, obtained a comprehensive test Consider the new ideas of industrial policy of new energy vehicles multidimensional support, will help promote the green development of China's new energy automotive industry, the dependence on government support "policy market" to "mass consumption" as soon as possible to reach the grand strategic objective of China's new energy vehicle development. Firstly, with low carbon traffic as the research background, the traffic trend of carbon emissions in China are analyzed, and found out the main factors affecting China's traffic carbon emissions; then, through the comparative analysis of domestic and international development of new energy vehicles and policies, according to the bottleneck of China's new energy vehicle market development, innovation product diffusion theory, social network theory, consumer based on the theory of behavior, China's new energy vehicle market diffusion has made a systematic, comprehensive research on the main influence in China's new energy vehicle market diffusion is analyzed, and then closely According to the actual problems in the promotion of new energy vehicles in China, constructing the Agent simulation model of the new energy vehicle market diffusion products competition, to simulate the diffusion of pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles, and using the simulation data of energy saving and emission reduction effect of traditional car use of new energy vehicles are estimated instead; finally the new energy vehicles, and some policy suggestion in China. According to the above research, based on collecting a large number of historical data, using a variety of methods and techniques, the research results are as follows: (1) through the transportation of low carbon, new energy vehicles, the diffusion of innovation products, a thorough literature study consumer behavior. The research shows that the diffusion of new energy vehicles have gradually become the scholars pay close attention to the direction, but the study on the new energy market diffusion is very rare and the use of simulation and prediction method, To explore the related research into the market by the government to support the development of new energy vehicles in China have not been reported. (2) using the historical statistical data of 1996-2013, the energy consumption of China's transportation industry and carbon emissions were calculated and found that diesel, gasoline consumption is the main reason for China's transportation energy carbon emissions growth and carbon emissions of diesel, gasoline shows an increasing trend. The use of traffic carbon emissions Kaya identities and the generalized Fisher index method is extended, to decompose the factors of traffic carbon emissions in China, traffic of China's carbon emissions growth, promote economic growth, while energy intensity the size of the population, and traffic strength has a role in promoting the overall, but the effect is less than the economic growth. Therefore, to develop low-carbon transportation, promotion of new energy vehicles is China's automobile industry to the "green development" The only way which must be passed. (3) based on the participation of China's new energy vehicle market diffusion analysis, build a multi Agent simulation model of the new energy vehicle market diffusion products competition, combined with the future trend of market development, motivation function creates consumers to buy new energy vehicles, used to simulate the consumer purchase decision the construction and Simulation of small world network, word-of-mouth among consumers; using the NetLogo simulation platform, the 2016-2022 of our country in the new energy vehicle market based simulation and scenario simulation, and the two factors of the price of new energy vehicles and the convenience of using the sensitivity analysis. The simulation results show that the new product will increase the new energy vehicle market competition, is conducive to the new energy vehicle market diffusion; and the pure electric vehicle market diffusion is better than that of hybrid vehicles, with the passage of time, pure The electric vehicle is in the leading position in the market in 2022, pure electric vehicle market share of 75%, hybrid car market share of 25%; and in the short term, China's consumers tend to buy pure electric car prices lower; compared with the convenience of using factors, price factors for the new energy vehicle market diffusion effect more. (4) the use of 2016-2022 in our country new energy vehicle market diffusion simulation of the pure electric vehicle and hybrid vehicle market share and the specific number, obtained through a questionnaire survey of consumers daily travel distance data and accounting, as well as traditional cars, hybrid cars comprehensive fuel consumption data according to the condition. Carbon emissions from energy consumption calculation formula for China's new energy vehicles to replace conventional cars under the effect of energy saving and emission reduction estimates, energy saving of new energy vehicles 2016-2022 reduction Discharge potential, total fuel capacity of 11 million 482 thousand tons, the cumulative reduction in carbon emissions amounted to 11 million 801 thousand tons. (5) according to the domestic and foreign new energy vehicle development experience brings inspiration for China auto market, with the simulation result, the diffusion of new energy, a package of proposals for the promotion of new energy vehicles in China. One is to strengthen guide for new energy vehicles, propaganda, improve the consumers of new energy vehicles identity, strengthen the focus on young people's propaganda, expand the demonstration effect of government procurement, expand the scope of small and medium-sized city; the two is to enhance the technical research and development of new energy vehicles, set up special funds to support the vehicle development and brand building, the development of simulation platform the technology of pure electric vehicle power battery was integrated, the key technology alliance, set up the drive motor and the control system of vehicle alliance, the development of international technology and industrial cooperation; three Perfect the construction of charging facilities for new energy vehicles, speeding up the construction of charging infrastructure system, strengthen the protection ability of supporting grid, charging to promote standardization and innovation; four is to give full play to market forces, enhance consumer satisfaction, competition and cooperation to encourage new energy automobile manufacturing enterprise, get rid of the new energy vehicles to promote the protection of place. Improve the access management rules of new energy vehicles, especially for the low price of pure electric vehicle market; the five is to improve China's new energy vehicle support policies, explore conditions for the policy support mode, perfecting market incentive mechanism, expand the scope of application of restrictive policies, build new energy automotive technology research and development platform, the use of tax means to expand new energy the car competitive advantage. The energy and environmental crisis in the development of automobile industry, China is vigorously promote new energy vehicles to replace the traditional automobile, promoting In the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry, and this as a national strategy. In the market cultivation period, the government provides significant support policies for the development of new energy vehicles, but as the technology matures, the purchase subsidies will exit. If we can overcome from reliance on government "policy market" to "the bottleneck of the development of popular consumer city" the development of new energy vehicles in China will be further upgraded, ultimately to achieve the strategic objectives formulated by the state. This paper uses the simulation method of the new energy automobile market diffusion simulation, find the future market to the low price, pure electric vehicle development direction. Combined with China's actual situation, put forward an all-round consideration the new idea of development of multidimensional support of the new energy vehicle market, this achievement is expected to make a breakthrough in the new energy vehicles of the "new economy" in the development of the market.

【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.471
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本文编号：1460134