收费公路PPP项目投资回报机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-25 17:02

本文关键词： 收费公路PPP项目投资回报机制风险分析投资回报分配方法损益分担方法　出处：《长安大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,政府和社会资本合作(Public Private Partnership,PPP)模式在我国基础设施建设中得到大力发展,而收费公路PPP项目在交通运输基础设施PPP模式的推广应用中处于优先地位。收费公路PPP项目投资大且特许经营期长,设立合理的投资回报机制以保障政府和社会资本的合理利益是收费公路PPP项目实施中的重要问题,也是保障其顺利发展的关键。为此,本文对收费公路PPP项目的投资回报机制进行研究。首先,研究收费公路PPP项目投资回报机制的内涵和制定流程。本文结合PPP模式的实践经验和收费公路PPP项目投资回报的特点,分析指出收费公路PPP项目投资回报机制需要体现的内容。在此基础上,本文先提出收费公路PPP项目投资回报机制的内涵,即收费公路PPP项目投资回报机制由项目风险的识别、分担和评价,项目投资回报分配方法和项目损益分担方法等三部分组成,并分析各部分的功能及其相互联系;再提出与之对应的收费公路PPP项目投资回报机制的制定流程。其次,研究收费公路PPP项目的风险识别、风险分担和项目风险评价方法。本文基于文献分析法归纳出PPP项目的风险因素,结合我国收费公路PPP项目的特点,分析得出收费公路PPP项目的风险因素。在基于文献分析法分析归纳出PPP项目的风险分担方式的基础上,依据PPP项目的风险分担原则和我国收费公路PPP项目的特点,分析得出收费公路PPP项目的风险分担方案。在收费公路PPP项目的风险评价上,提出模糊综合评价与人工神经网络集成的收费公路PPP项目智能风险评价模型,并验证了其有效性。然后,研究收费公路PPP项目的投资回报分配方法。投资回报分配方法包括投资回报分配模型以及应对社会资本道德风险的惩罚机制两方面内容。从政府能否确定社会资本的服务表现偏好的角度,提出社会资本服务表现偏好能确定时和社会资本服务表现偏好不能确定时的两种基于博弈的投资回报分配模型。并且,提出应对社会资本道德风险的政府设置惩罚机制的决策分析,为政府设置惩罚机制的决策及方法提供建议。再次,研究收费公路PPP项目基于风险共担和收益共享的损益分担方法。基于风险共担收益共享原则,提出能应对收费公路PPP项目风险影响的损益分担模型,并根据实物期权理论分析损益分担模型的期权价值及其对政府和社会资本的投资决策的影响。针对收费公路PPP项目常见的建设材料价格变化风险和运营期间CPI变化风险,依据收费公路PPP项目损益分担模型提出应对这两个风险影响的损益分担方法。最后,采取数值模拟方法分析收费公路PPP项目投资回报机制的应用,验证了收费公路PPP项目投资回报机制内涵的合理性和收费公路PPP项目投资回报机制制定流程的应用可行性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the public Private partnership model of government and social capital has been greatly developed in the infrastructure construction of our country. The PPP project of toll road is a priority in the popularization and application of PPP mode of transportation infrastructure. The PPP project of toll road has a large investment and long franchise period. To establish a reasonable return on investment mechanism to protect the reasonable interests of government and social capital is an important issue in the implementation of toll road PPP project, and is also the key to ensure its smooth development. This paper studies the return on investment mechanism of toll road PPP project. First of all. This paper studies the connotation and formulation process of the return on investment mechanism of toll road PPP project. This paper combines the practical experience of PPP model and the characteristics of the return on investment of PPP project of toll road. This paper points out the content of the return on investment mechanism of the toll road PPP project. On this basis, this paper first puts forward the connotation of the return on investment mechanism of the toll road PPP project. That is the toll road PPP project investment return mechanism consists of three parts: project risk identification, sharing and evaluation, project investment return allocation method and project profit and loss sharing method. And analyze the function of each part and its interrelation; Then put forward the corresponding toll road PPP project investment return mechanism of the formulation process. Secondly, the study of toll road PPP project risk identification. Risk sharing and project risk assessment methods. This paper summarizes the risk factors of PPP project based on the literature analysis, combined with the characteristics of PPP project of toll road in China. The risk factors of the toll road PPP project are analyzed. Based on the literature analysis, the risk sharing method of the PPP project is concluded. According to the principle of risk sharing of PPP project and the characteristics of PPP project of toll road in our country, the risk sharing scheme of PPP project of toll road is analyzed, and the risk evaluation of PPP project of toll road is discussed. This paper presents an intelligent risk assessment model for toll road PPP project integrated with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and artificial neural network, and verifies its effectiveness. This paper studies the investment return allocation method of toll road PPP project. The investment return allocation method includes two aspects: investment return allocation model and punishment mechanism to deal with the moral hazard of social capital. The angle of service performance preference of capital. This paper puts forward two kinds of investment return allocation models based on game when social capital service performance preference can be determined and social capital service performance preference can not be determined. Put forward to deal with the social capital moral hazard of the government to set up punishment mechanism decision-making analysis, for the government to set up punishment mechanism decision-making and methods to provide advice. Again. Based on the principle of risk-sharing and revenue-sharing, a profit and loss sharing model is proposed to deal with the risk impact of toll road PPP project based on risk-sharing and revenue-sharing. According to the real option theory, this paper analyzes the option value of the profit and loss sharing model and its influence on the investment decision of the government and social capital. Aiming at the common risk of construction material price change and operation period of toll road PPP project. CPI change risk. According to the profit and loss sharing model of toll road PPP project, this paper puts forward the profit and loss sharing method to deal with these two risks. Finally, the application of return on investment mechanism of toll road PPP project is analyzed by numerical simulation method. The rationality of the connotation of the investment return mechanism of the toll road PPP project and the feasibility of making the investment return mechanism of the toll road PPP project are verified.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283;F542.3

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