河北省经济增长与大气污染关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 18:15

本文选题：经济增长　切入点：大气污染　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济快速增长,河北已成为我国环境透支特别是大气环境破坏最为严重的地区。全面客观评价河北省经济增长与大气污染之间的影响关系,并对河北大气污染的经济根源进行深层次探讨,具有重要的现实意义。全文共八章,按照“理论基础-发展现状-关系分析-对策建议”的逻辑思路展开。主要结论如下:1、河北经济增长以牺牲环境为代价。2000年以来河北经济快速增长,产业结构以重工业为主,能源消费结构中煤炭比重极大且能耗水平偏高。同期,大气污染物排放量位居全国前列,排放强度高于全国平均水平,河北整体大气环境不断恶化。2、对河北经济增长与大气污染关系的研究发现:(1)工业废气排放与经济增长之间呈U型曲线,工业二氧化硫呈倒U型,工业烟粉尘排放呈N型,且都已越过拐点,若维持排放现状,随着经济增长,未来工业废气和工业烟粉尘的污染形势将更为严峻,工业二氧化硫污染则会逐渐减轻。(2)现阶段,工业废气处于经济缓慢增长而污染大幅增加的负脱钩这一较差状态;工业二氧化硫处于污染随经济增长而减轻的强脱钩的理想状态;而工业烟粉尘由强脱钩衰退到负脱钩状态,这一变化与河北大气雾霾加重的时间段吻合。3、河北大气污染对经济增长具有负效应。广义脉冲响应分析和方差分解表明河北大气污染物排放量的增加不能显著促进经济增长,反而以牺牲人们身体健康和整个社会福利的方式造成巨大的经济损失,保守估算2014年河北大气污染造成的经济损失约占当年GDP的3.8%。因此,大气环境问题已经成为制约河北经济可持续发展的重要“瓶颈”。4、河北经济增长对大气污染具有持续显著的促进作用,经济规模、产业结构和技术进步是大气污染的主要影响因素。各污染物的反弹效应有所不同,工业二氧化硫的反弹效应为负,呈减量排放,技术治理较为成功;工业烟粉尘排放呈正反弹,体现了排放强度和排放总量指标的矛盾,说明在提升污染治理技术的同时,更需要关注排放量的控制。河北优势产业中,近一半具有高耗能、高污染特性,在大力推动经济增长的同时,对大气环境产生了巨大的破坏作用。有重点的治理和有选择的发展优势产业,既可以保证河北经济稳定增长,又能降低增长对大气环境的负面效应,有利于河北经济增长与大气环境的协调可持续发展。5、在上述分析的基础上,从控制经济规模扩张速度、调整产业结构、加快技术进步、侧重优势产业四个角度提出了河北经济与大气环境协调发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid economic growth, Hebei has become the region with the most serious environmental overdraft, especially the atmospheric environmental damage. The comprehensive and objective evaluation of the relationship between economic growth and air pollution in Hebei Province, It is of great practical significance to probe into the economic origin of air pollution in Hebei Province. There are eight chapters in this paper. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. Hebei's economic growth is at the expense of the environment. Since 2000, Hebei's economy has grown rapidly and its industrial structure has been dominated by heavy industry. The proportion of coal in the energy consumption structure is large and the level of energy consumption is on the high side. In the same period, the emissions of atmospheric pollutants are among the highest in the country, and the emission intensity is higher than the national average. The relationship between economic growth and air pollution in Hebei Province is studied. It is found that the curve between industrial exhaust gas emission and economic growth is U type, industrial sulfur dioxide is inverted U type, industrial smoke dust emission is N type. If we maintain the status quo of emissions, with economic growth, the pollution situation of industrial exhaust gas and industrial smoke dust will be even more severe in the future, and the pollution of industrial sulphur dioxide will gradually decrease at this stage. Industrial waste gas is in a poor state of negative decoupling, in which the economy grows slowly and pollution increases substantially; industrial sulfur dioxide is in the ideal state of strong decoupling that reduces pollution with economic growth; and industrial smoke dust declines from strong decoupling to negative decoupling. This change coincides with the time period when the atmospheric haze in Hebei is aggravated. The atmospheric pollution in Hebei has negative effect on economic growth. The generalized impulse response analysis and variance decomposition show that the increase of air pollutant emissions in Hebei can not promote economic growth significantly. On the contrary, huge economic losses were caused by sacrificing people's health and social welfare as a whole. It was conservatively estimated that in 2014, the economic losses caused by air pollution in Hebei accounted for about 3.8% of the GDP in that year. The problem of atmospheric environment has become an important "bottleneck" that restricts the sustainable development of Hebei's economy. Industrial structure and technological progress are the main influencing factors of air pollution. The rebound effect of each pollutant is different, the rebound effect of industrial sulfur dioxide is negative, the technical treatment is successful, the industrial smoke dust emission is positive rebound, It reflects the contradiction between the emission intensity and the total emission target, which shows that while upgrading the pollution control technology, we need to pay more attention to the control of the discharge quantity. Nearly half of the superior industries in Hebei Province have the characteristics of high energy consumption and high pollution. While vigorously promoting economic growth, it has had a huge damaging effect on the atmospheric environment. Key governance and selective development of superior industries can ensure steady economic growth in Hebei. It can also reduce the negative effects of growth on the atmospheric environment and be conducive to the coordinated and sustainable development of Hebei's economic growth and atmospheric environment. On the basis of the above analysis, we should control the speed of economic scale expansion, adjust the industrial structure, and speed up technological progress. The countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of Hebei's economy and atmosphere environment are put forward from the four angles of focusing on superior industry.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X51;F127

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