大型工程项目复杂性影响因素分析及测度研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 23:27

本文选题：项目管理 + 项目复杂性　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：国家固定资产的增加主要依靠的是工程项目,工程项目也是我国转变经济发展方式调整产业结构的重要措施,工程项目的实现有利于增加社会效益与经济效益,增加国民收入,维持社会经济的稳定发展,保证我国的长治久安。近几年,建筑业不断改革,社会分工不断细化,受到商业竞争与项目环境的影响,大型工程项目越来越复杂化,面对这种复杂化现象,传统的工程项目管理方式已经不符合大型工程项目的发展需要,因此对大型工程项目的管理模式应符合实际变化,具有创新意识,满足大型工程项目复杂化的发展要求。在工程项目实施过程中,影响项目实施和操作的因素众多,各因素之间的关系错综复杂。由物力、财力、人力、技术等要素构成的项目系统处于动态变化之中,这些因素之间的相关程度和系统的动态性使得工程项目的复杂水平上升,不确定性增强。传统的项目管理理论无法满足现阶段管理实践的需要,从复杂性视角研究项目管理就成为一个新的解决思路,如何更为系统、深入的分析项目复杂性,如何通过有效控制项目复杂性以达到影响项目风险的目的就成为摆在管理者面前的一个理论和实践问题。目前,在学术研究领域关于工程项目复杂性以及项目复杂性测度方法的研究尚处于起步阶段,这种理论滞后于实践需求的状况亟需学者从复杂性的视角研究工程项目管理的问题。本文针对工程项目复杂化的发展趋势,结合科学变革的时代背景,对工程项目复杂性开展了研究并提出了工程项目复杂性管理的新模式。本文基于先前对于项目复杂性研究的相关文献和理论,从静态和动态的视角探究影响工程项目复杂性因素以及复杂程度的测量方法。首先,基于静态视角探究项目复杂性影响因素。复杂性影响因素并非独立存在,而是各因素之间相互影响。先前对于项目复杂性影响因素的分析都是简单的将各因素作为独立变量进行测量,而忽略对于各因素之间关联程度的探索。基于静态视角,本文通过矩阵分析,测算影响因素之间距离的方法研究财务、成本、时间、环境和技术之间的联系程度,从而说明工程项目复杂性程度不仅仅受单独因素的影响,同时还受到因素之间交互影响。其次,从动态视角探究项目复杂性影响因素。项目复杂性影响因素在不同时间节点中的影响程度存在显著差异,仅仅基于静态视角对于复杂性影响因素进行衡量,会在项目实施过程中出现失真现象。因此,应该基于动态视角对复杂性影响因素进行测量和研究。本文基于动态视角和进化树算法,探究项目复杂性影响因素动态演化,了解影响因素在项目实施中的变化程度和演化过程,更加有效和准确的了解项目的复杂性。最后,从子项目和项目整体分析复杂性。对于大型工程项目复杂性的研究不能仅仅局限于总体程度,同时也应该关注于子项目复杂性的探究,进而了解项目整体复杂性的程度。先前的研究对于项目复杂性的研究较少关注于子项目的复杂性,大多直接集中于整体复杂性程度,导致项目的风险增加和管理失效。本文基于马尔科夫链——熵方法,首先通过马尔科夫链原理衡量不同时间节点中子项目在项目复杂性中的重要程度,对子项目的复杂程度进行排名,然后通过熵方法测算整体项目的复杂性数值。本文通过构建相关性矩阵模型,系统进化树方法,以及马尔科夫链——熵模型,从大型工程项目复杂性静态影响因素之间的联系、复杂性动态影响因素之间的变化以及工程项目复杂性衡量的角度对工程项目复杂性进行了分析,并通过案例研究对方法的使用进行了验证。相关矩阵模型通过对五元素框架的研究,从系统的角度说明,是这些元素的相互作用和相互影响使得项目变得更加复杂。系统进化树方法通过对复杂性的分析,能够对复杂性进行分类,追溯复杂性进化的历史,并预测复杂性进化的未来。马尔科夫链——熵模型揭示了系统的动态本质并进而确定项目复杂性水平,同时,可以比较不同项目之间的相对复杂程度。本文所使用的三种定量方法,从不同的角度对项目管理作为一个系统的运行进行了考量。作为一种补充和借鉴,通过定量研究的方法能够从更加客观和直观的角度来衡量大型工程项目复杂性。为项目管理的决策者提供参考,同时也为项目管理的理论研究提供一个新的视角。
[Abstract]:The increase of the national fixed assets mainly depends on the engineering projects. The project is also an important measure to adjust the industrial structure of the economic development mode in China. The realization of the project is conducive to increasing the social and economic benefits, increasing the national income, maintaining the steady development of the social economy and ensuring the long-term stability of our country. In recent years, the construction of the project has been built. With the continuous reform of the construction industry and the continuous refinement of the social division of labor and the influence of the commercial competition and the project environment, the large-scale engineering projects are becoming more and more complex. In the face of this complex phenomenon, the traditional engineering project management methods have not met the needs of the development of large projects. Therefore, the management mode of large projects should be in accordance with the actual changes. In the process of engineering project implementation, there are many factors affecting the implementation and operation of the project, and the relationship between the factors is complex. The project system consists of material, financial, manpower, technology and other factors in the dynamic change, and the degree of correlation between these factors. The dynamic nature of the system increases the complexity of the project and the uncertainty is enhanced. The traditional project management theory can not meet the needs of the management practice at the present stage. The study of project management from the perspective of complexity becomes a new solution. How to more systematically and deeply analyze the complexity of the project and how to pass the effective control item In order to achieve the goal of affecting project risk, it is a theoretical and practical problem facing the managers. At present, the research on the complexity of engineering projects and the measure method of project complexity in the field of academic research is still in its infancy. In view of the development trend of engineering project complexity and the background of scientific change, this paper studies the complexity of engineering projects and puts forward a new model for the complexity management of engineering projects. This paper is based on the related literature and theory of the previous research on the complexity of the project, from static and dynamic. The angle of state explores the factors that affect the complexity of the project and the measurement methods of the complexity. First, the influence factors of the complexity of the project are explored based on the static perspective. The influence factors of the complexity are not independent, but the interaction between the factors. Based on the static perspective, this paper studies the relationship between the financial, cost, time, environment and technology, which shows that the degree of complexity of the project is not only influenced by the individual factors, based on the static perspective. Meanwhile, it is also influenced by the interaction between factors. Secondly, the influence factors of the complexity of the project are explored from the dynamic perspective. The impact of the factors on the complexity of the project complexity has significant difference in the different time nodes. We should measure and study the factors that affect the complexity based on the dynamic perspective. Based on the dynamic perspective and the evolutionary tree algorithm, this paper explores the dynamic evolution of the factors affecting the complexity of the project, understanding the change degree and evolution process of the influencing factors in the project implementation, and more effectively and accurately understanding the complexity of the project. Finally, subproject and The complexity of the project is complex. The study of the complexity of large project projects should not only be limited to the overall degree, but also should pay attention to the complexity of the sub project, and then understand the degree of the overall complexity of the project. In this paper, based on Markov chain theory, this paper uses Markov chain theory to measure the importance of different time node neutrons in the complexity of the project, ranking the complexity of the sub projects, and then calculates the overall project by entropy method. By constructing the correlation matrix model, the phylogenetic tree method, and the Markov chain entropy model, this paper divides the complexity of the project from the connection of the static influence factors of the complexity of the large engineering project complexity, the change of the complexity dynamic factors and the angle of the engineering project complexity. Analysis and verification of the use of the method through case study. Through the study of the five element framework, the correlation matrix model shows that the interaction and interaction of these elements make the project more complex. The phylogenetic tree method can classify the complexity by analyzing the complexity and tracing back to the complexity. The history of complex evolution and the prediction of the future of complexity evolution. The Markov chain, the entropy model, reveals the dynamic nature of the system and then determines the level of the complexity of the project. At the same time, it can compare the relative complexity between different projects. The three quantitative methods used in this paper have been used as one of the project management from different angles. As a supplement and reference, the quantitative research method can be used to measure the complexity of large project projects from a more objective and visual angle. It provides a reference for the decision-makers of project management, and also provides a new perspective for the theoretical research of project management.

【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TU71;F224

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