四化同步进程中的产城融合研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 01:26

  本文选题：产城融合 + 四化同步　； 参考：《山西财经大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：工业化、城镇化、农业现代化以及信息化经过多年的发展,在取得显著成就的同时,也存在着大量转移到非农产业的农业劳动力市民化滞后的问题,农民工难以融入城市社会;相比起人口城镇化发展速度,土地城镇化发展过快,建设用地粗放低效;现有城镇在发展过程中的空间分布和规模结构均不太合理,与城镇现有资源环境承载能力不匹配;工业化进程和城镇化发展程度不匹配;产业结构和就业结构不协调;就业结构和城镇化发展不协调;农业现代化滞后于工业化发展;信息化和西方发达国家相比起步太晚及如何发挥后发优势;等一系列问题。在上述问题背景下,本文从四化同步发展的分析出发研究了中国经济发展进程中的产城融合问题。论文从学科交叉的视角,结合经济学、产业组织学、城市经济学、产业经济学、管理学、统计学、系统工程学等多学科,从新型工业化、新型城镇化、信息化、农业现代化等四化同步发展的背景出发,在理论上分析产城融合的经济理论依据,并给出本文对于产城融合在四化同步进程中的概念和内涵新界定;建立了四化同步背景下的产城融合经济学理论模型;在理论模型的指导下,利用VAR模型中的格兰杰因果检验、方差分析、脉冲响应函数及主成分分析等多种研究方法和工具,分析中国经济发展进程中产城融合的影响因素、动力机制、评价模型等;总结产城融合发展进程中可能存在的问题,并对问题的解决提出可行的建议。论文的主要贡献在于:首次提出了宏观视角下的产城融合新定义,并由此界定了实证研究中产和城的分析范围;首次构建了四化同步进程中产城融合的经济学理论模型,既增强了产城融合研究的理论支撑,又能指导后续的实证分析和研究;针对产城融合中的空城和空转两个典型问题从人口、经济和空间三个视角进行了理论分析和探讨;在产城融合新定义的指导下,在实证研究中将研究对象从目前较为集中的高新区或城市新区扩展到了区域层面。论文的主要观点和结论如下:1.认为产城融合是指在新型城镇化、新型工业化、信息化和农业现代化等四化同步发展的进程中,通过四化互促互进协调发展,达到经济发展中产业结构合理,城镇产业布局优化,城镇各项服务配套设施完善,真正做到各次产业和城镇互相支撑,互相依托,相互匹配,实现经济发展进程中四化同步协调产城互动的发展模式;2.认为产城融合进程中四化相互之间均存在单向或双向的格兰杰因果关系,同时四化发展过程中均具有自我调整的机制,这一观点通过第3章的实证研究得到证实。3.从人口、经济和空间三个视角对产城融合的两个典型问题--空城和空转--进行了理论分析,认为空城和空转均是城镇化发展过程中和产业发展在结构以及空间配置方面不均衡所导致的,两者应该在人、经济、空间三个维度深度融合,才能在一定程度上解决空城和空转的问题。4.认为历年来中国的产城融合度是逐年提升稳步增加的,同时根据产城融合度的不同发展水平可将全国各地区分为一、二、三类地区,这一观点通过第5章的实证研究得到证实。5.发现影响全国历年来产城融合发展的主要因素有3类,影响不同地区产城融合发展的主要因素有6类。在对全国1978-2014年历年来以及2014年分地区的产城融合度进行实证分析时分别提取出了3个和6个主成分因子,这些主成分因子所包含的指标都是提升产城融合度的重要影响因素。6.在理论和实证分析的基础上,认为应该通过:推动产业结构优化升级、推动产业结构和就业结构进一步优化协调、以产业链延伸为导向进行多元化发展、强化开发区和产业集聚区建设、加快新型城镇化进程等对策建议的实施,促进未来经济发展中四化同步协调发展以及产城融合度的提高。当然,论文在实证分析的工具选择、指标选取的完善程度、理论分析的静态向动态转化等方面还有待于未来进一步深入研究。
[Abstract]:After many years of development, industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization and information technology have achieved remarkable achievements, while there are also a large number of agricultural labors which have been transferred to non-agricultural industries. The rural migrant workers are difficult to integrate into the urban society. Compared with the speed of urbanization, the urbanization of the land has developed rapidly and the construction land is rough. The spatial distribution and the scale structure of the existing cities and towns are not very reasonable in the process of development, not matching the existing resources and environmental bearing capacity of the cities and towns; the industrialization process and the urbanization development degree do not match; the industrial structure and the employment structure are not coordinated; the employment structure and the urbanization development are not coordinated; the agricultural modernization lags behind the industrialization development. In the background of the above problems, this paper studies the problem of production city integration in the process of China's economic development under the background of the above problems. From the perspective of interdisciplinary, the thesis combines economics, industrial organization, and urban economy. From the background of the four modernizations such as new industrialization, new urbanization, information technology and agricultural modernization, the economic theory basis is analyzed theoretically, and the concept and new field of integration in the four chemical synchronization process are given in this paper. Based on the theoretical model, we use the Grainger causality test, variance analysis, impulse response function and principal component analysis in the VAR model to analyze the influence factors, dynamic mechanism and evaluation of the middle city integration in China's economic development process. Price model and so on; summarize the possible problems that may exist in the development process of production city integration, and put forward feasible suggestions to solve the problem. The main contribution of this paper is: first put forward the new definition of production city integration under the macro perspective, and then define the scope of the empirical study of middle and city. The combined economic theory model not only strengthens the theoretical support of the study of the production city integration, but also guides the follow-up empirical analysis and research. The two typical problems of the empty city and the empty rotation in the production city integration are analyzed and discussed from three perspectives of population, economy and space; under the guidance of the new definition of the production city integration, in the empirical study The main views and conclusions of the study are as follows: 1. the main points and conclusions are as follows: the integration of production cities refers to the coordinated development of four modernizations, such as new urbanization, new industrialization, information and agricultural modernization, and through the coordinated development of four modernizations and mutual promotion to achieve economic development. The industrial structure of the exhibition is reasonable, the layout of the urban industry is optimized, the urban service facilities are perfect, and each industry and town support each other, depending on each other, and matching each other to realize the interactive development mode of the four chemical and synchronous coordinated production cities in the process of economic development. 2. The two-way Grainger causality has the mechanism of self adjustment in the course of the development of the four modernizations. Through the empirical study of the third chapters, it has been proved that.3. from the three perspectives of population, economy and space has made a rational analysis of the two typical problems of the integration of the production city, empty city and empty rotation, and that the empty city and the empty turn are both urban and urban development. The process and the uneven distribution of the industrial development in the structure and space allocation, the two should be in the three dimensions of human, economic and space integration, to a certain extent, to solve the problem of empty cities and airspace to a certain extent.4. think that the degree of urban integration in China has increased steadily year by year. The same development level can be divided into one, two and three regions of the country. Through the empirical study of the fifth chapters, it has been confirmed that there are 3 main factors affecting the integration and development of production cities throughout the country in the past fifth years. There are 6 main factors affecting the integration and development of the production cities in different regions. In the past 1978-2014 years and in the 2014, there are 6 types of factors affecting the integration and development of production cities in different regions. 3 and 6 principal component factors are extracted from the empirical analysis of the degree of production city integration in the district. The main factors included in these factors are the important factors to improve the degree of integration of the production city.6.. Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, it is believed that the industrial structure and employment structure should be promoted and the industrial structure and employment structure are promoted. Further optimization and coordination, with the extension of the industrial chain to diversify, strengthen the construction of the development zone and industrial agglomeration, speed up the implementation of the new urbanization process and other countermeasures, promote the coordinated and coordinated development of four chemicals in the future economic development and the improvement of the degree of urban integration. The degree of perfection, the static and dynamic transformation of theoretical analysis need to be further studied in the future.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124
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本文编号：1979778