高集约化农区投入减量化与低环境风险的土地利用系统设计--理论与模式

发布时间：2018-01-01 18:38

  本文关键词：高集约化农区投入减量化与低环境风险的土地利用系统设计--理论与模式　出处：理论与模式　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 土地利用系统 投入减量化 低环境风险 高集约化农区 可持续土地利用 青浦区

【摘要】：过去三十多年来,中国普遍实行的高投入产出、高利用强度的集约化农业土地利用模式,在提高了土地收益和保障粮食安全的同时也导致了严重的农业环境问题。因此,高集约化农区同时也是高环境风险的区域。未来十年,高集约化的农业土地利用方式既面临着粮食不断增产的客观需求,又面临着生态环境逐步恶化的现实挑战。探讨立足于高投入产出条件下如何减少过量投入及降低环境风险已成为现代农业发展和可持续土地利用领域的重要课题。本文拟从土地利用系统的角度出发,系统解析集约农业土地利用过程中物质输入。输出特征、迁移转化规律,以及由此引发的农业环境问题。在此基础上,研究探索高集约化农区土地利用系统设计的理论与方法体系,结合上海市青浦区的案例研究,尝试构建投入减量化的、良性循环的、低环境风险的可持续土地利用模式。主要研究结论如下：(1)初步提出了基于物质流调控理论的农业土地利用系统设计的理论框架。本研究依据物质流分析(material flow analysis, MFA),以投入减量化与低环境风险为目标,构建了物质流调控理论,详细阐释了该理论的内涵、设计原则与目标、设计内容与评价准则、设计模式及其图式和设计方法,并以青浦区开展了应用研究,从农业土地利用系统分析与效应评价,农户土地利用模式优化,土地利用结构优化与空间分区防控和高集约化农区可持续农业土地利用模式的耦合集成4个方面进行了分析、调控与设计。结果表明,基于物质流调控理论,可满足构建投入减量化的、良性循环的、低环境风险的可持续土地利用模式的实践要求。(2)农业土地利用系统分析与效应评价结果对青浦区农业土地利用系统进行了全面分析,首先分析了不同投入要素对农业产值增长的影响及其环境的潜在危害,然后分别从氮足迹与灰水足迹、土地利用效率、环境效率的角度评估农业土地利用过程的投入产出效率及其环境效应,在此基础上评估了物质减量化及环境风险降低潜势。结果表明：①农业播种面积和化肥对农业产值的灰色关联度为最显著的两个因素,提高土地利用效率成为缓解青浦区耕地资源紧缺的重要途径。②青浦区活性氮排放和灰水足迹存在显著的时空差异性,以高氮肥投入为特征的农业土地利用模式,严重影响了农业环境质量。优化土地利用结构、科学适量的氮肥投入模式和增加技术投入,提高氮素利用效率应成为青浦区农业土地利用系统优化与调整的重点途径。③基于经典DEA分析,青浦区各乡镇(街道)土地利用综合效率、土地利用技术效率和纯技术效率呈空间分异性和随时间波动的态势,青浦区农业土地利用纯技术效率的提升,是青浦区农业土地利用综合效率提高的关键。青浦区需要在保持和稳步推进适度规模经营的同时,重点提升农业土地利用管理水平,推广和普及农业新技术,严格控制土地的粗放和低效使用,以提高纯技术效率。④结合氮足迹、灰水足迹指标,采用非期望产出的SBM模型窗式分析方法,构建物质减量化潜力与污染物减排潜力、物质的潜在缩减规模和污染物的潜在缩减规模模型。2006-2013年,青浦区劳动力、肥料和机械动力的物质减量化潜力的年均值分别为32.21%,25.70%和38.21%；灰水足迹和污染氮足迹的年均减排潜力分别为32.18%12.32%。全区年均人力、肥料和机械动力的潜在缩减总量分别为8104人,4501.59t,27928.44kw：污染氮足迹和灰水足迹的潜在减排总量分别为381.04t,52046.88万m3。(3)农户土地利用模式优化以青浦区稻麦典型种植模式为例,采用TechnoGIN模型,对当前的农户土地利用情景进行经济-环境效应评价；在此基础上,通过构建氮效率和土地利用综合收益指标,确定土地利用优化方案及匹配政策与管理措施。结果表明,推广应用精细养分管理的适度规模经营模式是青浦区构建农户尺度投入减量化与低环境风险的可持续土地利用模式的关键。农业政策的制定需向适度规模经营农户中采取增加补贴的方式,弥补因人力和资源要素投入成本过高而产生的经济收益不足。(4)土地利用结构优化与空间分区防控①以水资源保护和非点源污染控制为目标,采用灰色线性规划模型对研究区域土地利用结构进行优化,2020年青浦区土地利用结构优化方案下经济效益可比2012年增加28.12%,同时减少了总氮、总磷的输出169.08t/a和79.83-a,降幅分别为10.96%、41.33%,有效降低了非点源污染风险。②采用最小累积阻力模型,构建区域空间分区防控模型,依据各土地利用类型的生态系统服务价值和非点源污染输出负荷,构建不同土地利用类型阻力系数,在此基础上,划设水资源保育区、水资源重点防护区、非点源污染一般阻控区、非点源污染中等阻控区及非点源污染重点阻控区,并针对不同分区提出具有针对性的措施,从土地利用结构和景观格局进行了土地利用系统的设计与调控。研究表明,基于水资源保护和非点源污染阻控的区域分区调控机制是有效解决非点源污染迁移和保护水资源的途径之一。(5)高集约化农区可持续农业土地利用模式的耦合集成运用物质流分析和系统动力学方法,建立集约农业土地利用耦合系统动力学模型。量化分析农出、畜牧及水产等子系统的物质流动过程；以氮素为主线,模拟氮的自然、经济和社会效应,预测未来的演化趋势,进而制定优化调控方案。2020年,基准情景下青浦区农业生产能力已不能满足当地人口对肉类及水产品氮的需求。优化情景下,化肥氮投入减少了53.75%,且系统氮生产满足了当地常住人口的消费需要,减少产品氮区外进口量2245.16t,优化情景下系统氮综合循环效率提高至25.54%,通过淋溶和径流分析,系统对水环境的影响进一步降低。该优化耦合方案在保证农业生产目标的同时较好地保护了当地生态环境。
[Abstract]:Over the past thirty years, China generally implemented high input output, high utilization strength of intensive agricultural land use pattern, improve the land income and food security also led to serious environmental problems. Therefore, agriculture, high intensive farming areas and high environmental risk areas. The next ten years, set high use of agricultural land intensive is facing the objective demand for grain yield and continue to challenge the gradual deterioration of the ecological environment. Based on the study of high input and output under the conditions of how to reduce excessive investment and reduce environmental risk has become the development of modern agriculture and sustainable land use an important topic in the field. This paper proceeds from the land use system the angle of system analysis in the process of land use intensive agricultural material input. Output characteristics, migration and transformation laws, and the problems of agricultural environment . based on the research of high intensive farming areas of land use system theory and method of system design, combined with the case study of Qingpu District of Shanghai City, try to construct the input reduction, a virtuous cycle of the sustainable land use pattern of low environmental risk. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) put forward the agricultural land the theoretical framework of material flow control system design based on the theory. On the basis of material flow analysis (material flow, analysis, MFA), with the input reduction and low environmental risk as the goal, build the material flow control theory, explains the connotation of the theory, design principles and design objectives, contents and evaluation criteria design, model and schema and design method, taking Qingpu district to carry out applied research, from the analysis and evaluation system and the effect of agricultural land use, household land use pattern optimization, land use structure optimization The analysis and prevention and control of space partition and high intensive farming areas of sustainable agricultural land use pattern of the integrated 4 aspects, regulation and design. The results show that based on the material flow control theory, which can meet the construction investment reduction, a virtuous cycle of the practice mode of sustainable land use and low environmental risk. (2) of agricultural land use system analysis and effect evaluation of the results of a comprehensive analysis of the system of agricultural land use in Qingpu District, first analyzes the different input factors on potential hazards affecting agricultural output growth and its environment, and then from the nitrogen footprint and grey water footprint, land use efficiency, environmental efficiency assessment of agricultural land use process the input-output efficiency and its effect on the environment, on the basis of the evaluation of material reduction and environmental risk reduction potential. The results indicate that: agricultural acreage and production Grey fertilizer on agricultural production of the two most significant factors, improve land use efficiency has become an important way to alleviate the shortage of cultivated land resources in Qingpu district. The Qingpu District of reactive nitrogen emissions and grey water footprint shows significant spatio-temporal difference, with high nitrogen fertilizer inputs of agricultural land use pattern, serious influence the agricultural environmental quality. The optimized land use structure, the amount of nitrogen fertilizer and scientific model to increase the technical inputs, improve nitrogen use efficiency should be the key way to optimize and adjust the system of agricultural land use in Qingpu district was analyzed. Based on the classic DEA, the township (street) Qingpu District comprehensive efficiency of land use, land use efficiency and pure technical the efficiency of a spatial and time fluctuation trend, Qingpu district agricultural land use to enhance the pure technical efficiency is improved, the Qingpu District Agricultural Comprehensive Land Use Efficiency The key. Qingpu needs to steadily promote the appropriate scale of operation at the same time maintain and focus on enhancing the management level of agricultural land use, promotion and popularization of new agricultural technology, strict control of land extensive and inefficient use, in order to improve the pure technical efficiency. The combination of nitrogen footprint, grey water footprint index, using SBM model undesirableoutputs window the analysis method of construction material reduction potential and pollutant emission reduction potential, the potential to reduce the size of material and pollutant reduction potential scale model of.2006-2013 years, Qingpu district labor force, average value of fertilizer and mechanical power dematerialization potential were 32.21%, 25.70% and 38.21%; the average annual emission reduction potential of grey water footprint and nitrogen pollution footprint are 32.18%12.32%. the annual average human, fertilizer and mechanical power potential reduction of the total was 8104, 4501.59t, 27928.44kw: the pollution of nitrogen footprint and ash water foot The total emission reduction potential traces were 381.04t, 520 million 468 thousand and 800 m3. (3) model of farmer's land use optimization District in Qingpu rice wheat cropping pattern of typical cases, using TechnoGIN model to evaluate the economic - environmental effects of land use current situation of farmers; on this basis, through the construction of nitrogen efficiency and land use comprehensive benefit index to determine the land use optimization scheme and matching policy and management measures. The results show that the application of site-specific nutrient management of moderate scale management mode is building in Qingpu District of sustainable land use patterns of rural household investment key reduction and low environmental risk. The development of agricultural policy to moderate scale farmers to increase subsidies to make up for due to the high cost of human resources and economic benefits. (4) the optimization of land use structure and the prevention and control of water resources in space partition The source of the protection and control of non-point source pollution as the goal, using grey linear programming model to optimize the land use structure in the study area, structure optimization scheme can increase the economic benefits of land use in 2020 than in 2012 28.12% in Qingpu District, while reducing the total nitrogen, total phosphorus output of 169.08t/a and 79.83-a, the decline was 10.96%, 41.33%, effectively reduce the the risk of non-point source pollution. The minimum cumulative resistance model, the construction of regional spatial zoning control model based on different types of land use ecosystem service value and non-point source pollution load, the construction of different land use types of drag coefficient, on this basis, the designation of water resource conservation areas, water resources key protection zone non point source pollution control in general area, non-point source pollution control district secondary and non-point source pollution control key area, and to different partitions to propose targeted measures, from the soil The design of land use regulation and system structure and landscape use. The study shows that the regional zoning regulation mechanism of water resource protection and non-point source pollution control based on source pollution is one of the ways of migration and protection of water resources to solve the non effective. (5) high intensive flow dynamics analysis method and system coupling the use of integrated material model of sustainable agricultural land use in agricultural areas, the establishment of agricultural land use coupled system dynamics model. The quantitative analysis of the intensive agricultural, animal husbandry and fishery material flow subsystem; with nitrogen as the main line, the simulation of nitrogen in natural, economic and social effects, predicting the future evolution trend, and establish the optimal adjustment scheme.2020, the baseline scenario and agricultural production capacity in Qingpu district could not satisfy the need of meat and aquatic products demand of the local population. Nitrogen optimization scenario, nitrogen fertilizer input is reduced by 53.75 %, and nitrogen production to meet the consumption needs of the local resident population, reduce nitrogen outside the region imports 2245.16t, optimization scenario system nitrogen circulation efficiency is improved to 25.54%, through the analysis of leaching and runoff, influence on water environment is further reduced. The optimal coupling scheme in ensuring agricultural production targets at the same time better to protect the local ecological environment.

【学位授予单位】：中国农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F301.2
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本文编号：1365735