铁矿石消耗影响机制研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 07:18

本文选题：铁矿石消耗　切入点：经济增长　出处：《中国地质大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：钢铁工业是国民经济的支柱产业,随着我国资源环境问题的日益凸显和铁矿石消耗对外依存度的逐年攀升,人们对铁矿石消耗未来走势给予了高度关注,那么,是哪些因素影响着铁矿石消耗?这些因素又是如何影响着铁矿石消耗?论文紧紧围绕这一命题,从经济增长理论出发,以铁矿石储量现状和开发利用特征为基础,沿着铁的物质流路径,分析提炼出经济增长、环境政策、市场因素和技术进步四方面因素对铁矿石消耗产生必然影响,并分别就四方面因素对铁矿石消耗的影响机理进行了深入研究。最后,综合四方面影响因素,构建了铁矿石消耗综合影响模型并进行实证分析。论文将资源经济学、循环经济学、生态经济学和经济增长理论相结合,综合运用文献分析法、物质流分析法、比较研究、数理统计建模法、理论分析与归纳相结合等方法对铁矿石消耗策略、钢铁循环利用和经济增长方式开展系统、全面的研究,围绕铁矿石消耗与经济增长、市场、环境和技术进步等因素相关关系中的系列理论和实践问题进行深入探讨,研究了如下主要内容,形成了论文主要研究结论。第一章,绪论。本章主要阐述论文研究的背景和意义,系统梳理国内外关于经济增长与矿产资源消耗关系的相关文献,得出相关理论研究进展和发展方向,提出论文的研究思路,提炼拟创新点和需解决的关键问题。第二章,铁矿石消耗影响因素分析。全面分析全球及中国铁矿石储量、品位以及分布特征,系统回顾铁矿消费利用状况,总结影响铁矿石消耗的主要影响因素。第三章,经济增长对铁矿石消耗的影响。首先通过面板数据模型、协整检验等计量经济方法和模型,分析美、英、德、法、日、韩等主要发达国家不同历史时期经济增长对铁矿矿石消耗的影响,提出了美国“倒U”型、英法“山峰”型、德日“反7”型和韩国持续增长型等铁矿石消耗模式;再通过对中国经济增长对铁矿石消耗影响的时序特征分析和空间分布分析,进而构建并验证中国经济增长与铁矿石消耗的时空耦合规律。形成主要结论:在工业化发展过程中,经济增长主要反映在社会物质财富的蓄积,经济增长对铁矿石消耗具有较强的拉动作用,表现为人均钢铁蓄积量的快速增长。工业化基本完成以后,经济增长主要反映在人们生活质量的提高,经济增长与铁矿石消耗显现出逆向发展,表现为人均钢铁蓄积量的缓慢增长,并将最终实现均衡。近年来,中国经济增长处于快速工业化阶段,经济增长与铁矿石消耗具有时空耦合规律,整体上呈波动上升的态势,同时,区域上具有一定的时空差异性。第四章,市场因素对铁矿石消耗的影响。先通过分析国际铁矿石贸易市场的历史、现状和演化趋势,论证铁矿石国际贸易的一般规律;再探讨国际铁矿石贸易对铁矿石消耗的影响;然后论述了铁矿石价格变化对铁矿石消费替代以及可消耗的铁矿石储量的影响,后又分别论证了钢铁直接贸易和间接贸易对铁矿石消耗的影响。得出主要结论为:铁矿石贸易可以使铁矿资源全球再平衡,并通过价格影响铁矿石生产、消耗量。钢铁直接贸易和间接贸易改变钢铁国际间的平衡,并通过贸易转嫁铁矿石消耗所带来的能源环境负担。各国经济增长阶段和发展方式的不同,产生了钢铁利用链上的国际分工不同,进而影响铁矿石消耗,形成了铁矿石消耗与钢铁利用的不协调性。第五章,环境政策对铁矿石消耗的影响。论述了环境政策对铁矿石消耗的影响,并从全生命周期理论和循环经济理论角度论证了钢铁循环利用对铁矿石消耗产生的影响。形成主要结论为:工业化快速发展的经济增长,大量消耗铁矿石等矿产资源,致使资源环境不断恶化;工业化完成后,环境问题凸显,环境管制迫使铁矿石消耗量减少;铁矿石消耗减少,促进了钢铁循环利用,进而减少环境负担,铁矿石消耗与环境相适应,并最终达到均衡。从物质流分析和全生命周期理论考察,论文认为钢铁是节能环保资源,长期来看,依靠循环经济发展方式,有效保障铁矿石动态均衡消耗,有利于环境质量提高和经济均衡增长。第六章,技术进步对铁矿石消耗的影响。分别从铁矿石环境排放强度、能源消耗强度和铁矿石资源利用率论证技术进步对铁矿石消耗的影响,对技术进步产生钢铁材料与其他金属或非金属材料间的替代,以及技术进步对铁矿石消耗经济效益产生的影响进行论述,并从有偏技术进步理论探讨了技术进步对铁矿石消耗数量和质量提高的影响。形成结论为:技术进步提高铁矿资源勘探开发水平,增加可采铁矿资源储量,同时,技术进步使开采成本降低,提升铁矿资源可经济开采量。技术进步使钢铁潜在可替代材料增多,进而促使钢铁材料性能的提升,提高铁矿资源利用效率,减少相同功效的铁矿石消耗量,实现铁矿石消耗减量增效,可缓解铁矿消耗压力。有偏技术进步在中国钢铁工业表现突出,由于市场需求驱动,铁矿石消耗数量增长快于质量提升,随着人均钢铁蓄积量的饱和,技术进步将偏向于提高钢铁产品的质量上来,依靠技术进步实现减量提质发展。第七章,铁矿石消耗综合影响实证分析。通过对逐级细化影响指标,运用面板数据模型,将经济指标、环境指标、市场指标和技术进步指标逐步纳入系统模型,构建综合影响模型,并用运用5个典型发达国家45年数据进行实证分析。形成主要结论:(1)经济增长增加铁矿石消耗,铁矿石消耗增加环境负效应,环境压力约束经济增长减少铁矿石消耗强度。(2)经济增长增加科技人力、财力、物力投入,促进技术进步。技术进步促进经济转型升级,降低资源消耗依赖;同时,技术进步增加铁矿石可采储量,提高铁矿资源利用效率(包括废钢铁回收利用率),提升钢铁制品品质,减少铁矿石消耗强度。(3)国际贸易促进铁矿资源全球有效配置,并通过价格形成材料的替代(包括铁矿石与废钢铁资源的替代);经济转型和技术进步转变钢铁资源的流动形式,钢铁间接贸易量迅速增加,转变了铁矿资源约束,并通过钢铁间接贸易提升了经济增长。(4)市场、环境、技术共同影响着经济增长方式的转变,并通过经济增长方式的转变改变着铁矿石消耗强度,同时,经济、市场、环境、技术也从不同测度共同影响着铁矿石消耗的形态、方式、效率和质量,构成了铁矿石消耗影响机制。第八章,研究结论与展望。先逐步总结经济增长、市场因素、环境政策、技术进步对铁矿消耗影响的研究结论,在综合影响模型的基础上提出铁矿石消耗的影响机制,并从生态文明建设要求,以及我国铁矿石消耗和钢铁产业政策面临的问题,提出钢铁产业发展政策建议。中国钢铁工业应加快供给侧结构性改革,加强环境管控和全生命周期环境成本核算,增强科技创新能力,积极参与钢铁制造国际分工,铁矿石资源远期不会约束中国经济增长,可以保障中国经济持续增长。论文的主要创新点体现在:(1)通过对比主要发达国家不同历史时期铁矿石消耗与经济增长的关系,基于我国不同发展方式,运用时序分析和空间分析相结合的方法,探究中国铁矿石消耗与经济增长的时空耦合规律。(2)运用经济增长理论框架,全面分析经济、环境、市场、技术对铁矿石消耗的影响,并根据分析结果,选取主要发达国家经济增长指标、环境约束指标、钢铁贸易指标、技术进步指标等共10项指标,运用计量经济方法,分步构建铁矿石消耗综合影响模型,提出未来中国铁矿石消耗对经济增长的约束关系。
[Abstract]:The iron and steel industry is the pillar industry of the national economy, with the resources and environmental problems in China has become increasingly prominent and the consumption of iron ore external dependence on rising year by year, iron ore consumption trend has given great attention, that is, what are the factors that affect the consumption of iron ore? These factors how to affect the consumption of iron ore? This paper focuses on this topic, starting from the theory of economic growth, with the characteristics of the status quo and development and utilization of iron ore reserves as the foundation, along the iron material flow path analysis, extract the economic growth, environmental policy, market factors and technical progress of the four factors have influences on consumption of iron ore, the influence mechanism based on four aspects factors on the consumption of iron ore were studied. Finally, the comprehensive four factors, constructs the comprehensive effect of iron ore consumption model and empirical analysis. This paper will resources Economics, circulation economics, ecological economics and economic growth theory, the integrated use of literature analysis, comparative study on the material flow analysis method, mathematical statistics method, modeling, theoretical analysis and induction strategy combining the method of iron ore consumption, steel recycling and economic growth mode to carry out the system, a comprehensive study on iron ore the consumption and economic growth, the market, a series of theoretical and practical issues related the relationship between environment and technological progress and other factors in the in-depth study, the main contents of research are as follows, the paper mainly studies the formation of the first chapter, introduction. This chapter mainly elaborates the background and significance of the research, combing the domestic and foreign about economic growth and the relationship between the consumption of mineral resources related literature, the progress and development trend of research on related theories, put forward the idea of the paper, the key to innovation and refinement to solve The problem. In the second chapter, analysis of factors affecting the consumption of iron ore and China. Comprehensive analysis of global iron ore reserves, grade and distribution characteristics, a systematic review of iron ore consumption utilization situation, summarize the main factors that influence the consumption of iron ore. In the third chapter, affects the economic growth of consumption of iron ore. Firstly, through the panel data model, cointegration test econometric methods and models, analysis of beauty, Britain, Germany, Japan, Korea and other developed countries, the main effect of different historical periods of economic growth of iron ore consumption, put forward the "inverted U" type, the "mountain peak", "7" type of Germany and Japan and South Korea continued growth iron ore consumption patterns; through the analysis of temporal characteristics analysis and spatial China on economic growth impact on the consumption of iron ore distribution, then the establishment and validation of space-time coupling rules of economic growth and China iron ore consumption. The main form Conclusion: in the process of industrialization, economic growth is mainly reflected in the accumulation of material wealth of society, economic growth has a strong pulling effect on iron ore consumption, showing the rapid growth of per capita volume of steel. After the completion of basic industrialization, economic growth is mainly reflected in the improvement of life quality, economic growth and the consumption of iron ore show the reverse development, showed slow growth of per capita volume of steel, and will eventually achieve equilibrium. In recent years, Chinese economic growth in the stage of rapid industrialization, economic growth and the consumption of iron ore with spatial coupling rules, the overall rising trend, at the same time, with the differences of time and space domain. In the fourth chapter which factors affect the market for iron ore consumption. First, through the analysis of the international iron ore trade market history, current situation and development trend of iron ore, a demonstration of international trade The general rules of consumption; influence of international iron ore trade of iron ore; and then discusses the influence of the iron ore reserves of iron ore price changes of iron ore consumption and consumption substitution, and then demonstrates the consumption of iron and steel respectively direct trade and indirect trade of iron ore were studied. The main conclusion: iron ore trade can make iron ore resources of global rebalancing, and through the influence the price of iron ore production, consumption of iron and steel. Direct and indirect trade trade changed the balance between the international iron and steel trade, and through the transfer of iron ore consumption of energy and environmental burden brought by economic growth and development stage. The different way of producing steel using chain the international division of labor is different, thereby affecting the consumption of iron ore, iron ore consumption formed coordination and steel use. In the fifth chapter, the influence of environmental policy on iron ore consumption. The ring Effect of environmental policy on iron ore consumption, and demonstrates the steel recycling consumption on the impact of iron ore from the life cycle theory and the theory of circular economy perspective. The main conclusions are as follows: the formation of the rapid development of industrialization and economic growth, large consumption of mineral resources such as iron ore, resulting in the deterioration of resources and environment; the completion of industrialization, environment to highlight the problem of environmental regulation, forcing the iron ore consumption decreased; reduce the consumption of iron ore, iron and steel to promote recycling, thereby reducing the burden on the environment, the consumption of iron ore and adapt to the environment, and achieve the balanced analysis. And the whole life cycle theory from the perspective of material flow, the paper believes that the steel is energy-saving and environmental resources, rely on the long term, the development of circular economy, effectively guarantee the dynamic equilibrium of iron ore consumption, is conducive to the improvement of environmental quality and economic growth. In the sixth chapter, the technical progress of iron ore The influence of consumption. From the iron ore environmental emission intensity, and the impact of energy consumption intensity of iron ore resource utilization demonstration technology progress consumption of iron ore, steel and other materials to produce alternative metal or non-metallic materials for technological progress, technological progress and economic benefits generated by the effect of consumption of iron ore are discussed, and from the theory of partial technology progress of technological progress and improving the quality of the consumption effect of the quantity of iron ore formation. The conclusion is: improve the level of technological progress of iron ore resources exploration and development, increase the recoverable reserves of iron ore resources, at the same time, technological progress to reduce mining costs, enhance the economic exploitation of iron ore resources. Technological advances make steel potential alternative materials increased, prompting steel material performance, improve the efficiency of the use of iron ore resources, reduce the consumption of the same effect of iron ore, iron ore to achieve Consumption reduction efficiency, can alleviate the pressure of iron ore consumption. Partial technology progress in iron and steel industry China outstanding performance, because the market demand driven, iron ore consumption grew faster than the number of quality improvement, with the per capita volume of steel saturated, technological progress will tend to improve the quality of steel products, rely on technological progress to achieve reduction and quality and development. The seventh chapter, the empirical analysis of comprehensive effect of iron ore consumption. Through the analysis of the influence of stepwise refinement, using panel data model, the economic indicators, environmental indicators, market indicators and technical progress index gradually incorporated into the system model, construct the comprehensive effect model, and empirical analysis with the use of 5 typical developed countries 45 years of data. The main conclusions: (1) economic growth increases the consumption of iron ore, iron ore consumption increased negative environmental effects, environmental pressure constraints on economic growth to reduce iron ore consumption intensity (2). Economic growth, increase scientific and technological manpower, financial resources, material resources, promote technological progress. Technological progress and promote economic restructuring and upgrading, reduce the consumption of resources dependence; at the same time, increase the technological progress of iron ore Shi Ke reserves, improve the utilization efficiency of iron ore resources (including iron and steel scrap recycling rate), improve the steel product quality, reduce the consumption of iron ore (strength. 3) the promotion of international trade and global iron ore resources effectively configuration, through the formation of price alternative (alternative materials including iron ore and scrap iron and steel resource); flow pattern of economic restructuring and technological progress changes the resources of iron, iron and steel indirect trade is increasing rapidly, the change of iron ore resource constraints, and through indirect trade promoted the economic growth of iron and steel. (4) market environment, technology influenced the transformation of economic growth mode, and change the mode of economic growth through changing the iron ore consumption, at the same time, economy, The market environment, technology from different measures affect the iron ore consumption form, method, efficiency and quality, constitute the influence mechanism of iron ore consumption. In the eighth chapter, conclusion and Prospect of the research. First gradually sum up the economic growth, market factors, environmental policy, research conclusion effect of technological progress on iron ore consumption, the influence of the mechanism of iron ore consumption based on model of comprehensive effect, and from the requirements of ecological civilization construction, and the problems of China's consumption of iron ore and steel industry policy, the iron and steel industry development policy recommendations. China steel industry should speed up the supply side structural reform, strengthen environmental control and life cycle environmental cost accounting, strengthen the science and technology innovation ability, actively participate in the international division of steel manufacturing, iron ore resources will not be long-term constraints China economic growth, China can guarantee the sustained economic growth. The main Innovation is reflected in: (1) through the comparison of the main developed countries in different historical periods of iron ore consumption and economic growth in our country, different development mode based on the analysis, using the method of time series analysis and space integration, explore Chinese iron ore consumption and economic growth in the space-time coupling law. (2) using the theory of economic growth the framework, a comprehensive analysis of economy, environment, market, affect the consumption of iron ore technology, and according to the analysis results, select the main indicators of economic growth in developed countries, environmental constraints, steel trade indicators, 10 indicators of technological progress index, using the econometric method, step by step construction of iron ore consumption comprehensive influence model, put forward to constraints of economic growth in the future China iron ore consumption.

【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.1

【参考文献】