气候变化条件下杉木人工林适应性经营研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 23:12

本文选题：杉木人工林　切入点：气候变化　出处：《福建农林大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：气候变化是影响森林提供生态、经济和社会服务功能的重要威胁之一。大量的研究证实,健康的、经营状况良好的森林可作为碳汇吸收大气中的二氧化碳,对减缓气候变化的速度具有重要作用。随着全球气候的不断变化,发展制定有效的森林经营管理策略以保持森林生态系统应对气候变化的抵抗力与恢复能力对于森林经营单位而言也越来越重要。杉木是我国重要的经济树种之一,具有广阔的种植面积和较高的经济利用价值。杉木不仅是重要的木材纤维资源,在水土保持以及气候调节等方面同样发挥重要作用。由于其广泛的种植面积和较高的二氧化碳固定潜力,杉木人工林的种植和经营也被认为是我国温室气体减排战略的重要组成部分。在全球气候变化的复杂背景下,未来时期杉木的生产力及其地理位置分布都可能发生显著的变化,从而对杉木林的生产经营管理产生重大影响。然而目前仍然很少有证据能够表明以科学为基础的决策制定过程被纳入杉木林的经营管理活动中。由此可见,森林经营单位在制定杉木林经营适应气候变化策略以实现杉木林的可持续经营时依旧存在很大的不确定性。本研究以福建省顺昌县境内杉木为主要优势树种的林分区域为研究对象,利用高精度高分辨率的气候模型ClimateAP生成的气候数据,应用直接降尺度的方法建立5种不同的气候情景,用于FORECAST Climate模型对杉木林的生长对气候变化的响应进行模拟；根据收集的杉木分布现状资料和ClimateAP生成的基准期气候数据,运用随机森林算法建立杉木的气候生态位模型,并应用于对研究区杉木未来气候变化条件下气候生态位的变化的模拟预测；同时本研究还将研究区根据不同的森林生产力等级和森林经营类型,将研究区划分为14个不同的森林分析单元,并根据气候变化情景、轮伐周期及采伐剩余面积比建立27个不同的杉木林经营情景,应用Microsoft Excel软件结合FORECAST Climate模型的输出结果建立景观水平的权衡分析工具LST模型,对杉木林经营对经济效益及生态系统服务功能的影响的权衡进行分析；最后,从公众、森林经营单位和相关政府部门三个不同主体的角度,提出杉木应对气候变化的适应性经营策略与建议。主要研究结果如下：(1)根据所建立的不同气候变化情景,研究区未来100年(2013-2112)平均温度将会提高1.3℃-2.9℃；降水量的变化趋势不明显,其差异性主要体现在不同的GCM模型之间,CNRM-CM5 模型的预测结果表现为更干燥。(2)未来气候变化,温度的不断升高对研究区杉木的气候生态位分布影响更为显著。未来时期,在不控制温室气体排放情景下(RCP8.5)研究区杉木的气候生态位分布范围将受到比较大的影响。而采取有效的温室气体排放措施对这种情况有积极的缓解作用,根据预测结果,在有效控制温室气体排放的情景下(RCP2.6),研究区杉木气候生态位分布范围在2050s及2080s时仅分别缩减了5.4%和12.4%。另外需要注意的是,本研究预测的是杉木的实际生态位,而杉木能否在当前的气候生态位范围外生长生存仍然未知,还应作进一步相关探讨。(3)FORECAST Climate模型的适用性验证结果表明,基于模型输出的8天周期的日气候生长响应指数平均值与8天合成的MODIS净光合作用产量相对值之间具有显著的相关性(r=0.84,p0.0001),说明模型具有较高的精度和合理的准确性,能够应用于本研究区的相关研究。(4)气候变化对杉木林林分生产力的提高具有积极的影响,杉木树干生物量生产力第一个轮伐期(1-30年)提高3.9%～9.5%,第二个轮伐期(31-60年)提高3.9%～9.5%,到第三个轮伐期(61-90年)时提高5.3%～12.9%,这主要归因于气候变化引起的生长季节的逐渐延长和养分循环速率的相应增加。模型预测显示尽管气候变化会导致干旱季节杉木的水胁迫增大,然而与干旱相关的死亡率并未随之增加。同样重要的是要注意,如果未来气候机制的变化会导致由于生物干扰与非生物干扰造成的死亡率的增加,那么本研究所预测的与气候变化相关的杉木生长的增加这一结果则可能无法实现。(5)建立的LST模型能够作为森林经营单位的决策辅助工作,模型生成决策输出矩阵允许使用者根据森林经营目的通过自行给定权重值决定各个权衡分析指标的重要性以灵活地决定采用何种措施对森林进行更好的经营管理。(6)为实现森林应对气候变化的适应性经营,应不断提高公众意识和参与度；森林经营单位应积极转变经营方式,实施有效的经营措施；政府部门应充分发挥主导地位,促进森林适应性政策的制定、完善和实施。
[Abstract]:Climate change is one of the important influence of forest ecology, the threat of economic and social service function. A large number of studies confirmed that the health of the operating condition of the forest can be used as carbon sinks to absorb carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which plays an important role in mitigating climate change speed. With the changing global climate, developing forest management strategies effective to maintain forest ecosystem response to climate change resistance and recovery capability is more and more important for the forest management unit. Chinese fir is one of the important economic species in China, economic value has wide planting area and high. Chinese fir is not only the important wood fiber resources, soil and water conservation and climate regulation other aspects also play an important role. Because of its wide potential of carbon dioxide fixed planting area and high, Chinese fir plantation and planting Business is also considered an important part of China's greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy. In the context of global climate change, the future productivity and the geographical distribution of Chinese fir are likely to occur during the period of significant change, and thus have a significant impact on the production and management of Chinese fir plantation. However, there is still little evidence to show that the process to develop science based decision making is included in the Chinese fir forest management activities. Thus, forest management units still exist great uncertainty in the formulation of sustainable management of Chinese fir forest management strategies to adapt to climate change in order to achieve the fir forest. In this study, Chinese fir in Shunchang County of Fujian Province as the dominant species in the forest area as the research object. Using the climate data climate model ClimateAP generates high accuracy and high resolution, method of application of direct downscaling establish 5 different The climate scenarios for FORECAST Climate in response to growth model of Chinese fir plantation to climate change were simulated according to the reference period; climate data of Chinese fir distribution data and ClimateAP generation collection, climatic niche model of Chinese fir by random forest algorithm, and applied to the study of Chinese fir simulation predict future changes in climate niche under climate change conditions; at the same time, this study will also study area according to the type and level of forest management and forest productivity is different, the study area is divided into 14 different forest units of analysis, and according to the climate change scenario, rotation cycle and slash area than the establishment of 27 different Chinese fir forest management scenarios, the application of Microsoft Excel FORECAST software with Climate model output trade-off analysis tool LST to establish the model of landscape level, the Chinese fir forest management on economic benefits and Weigh the impact on the ecosystem service functions were analyzed; finally, from the public, the forest management unit and the relevant government departments in three different perspective, puts forward the management strategies and suggestions of Chinese fir in response to climate change adaptation. The main results are as follows: (1) according to different climate change scenarios in the next 100 years of the study area (2013-2112) the average temperature will increase 1.3 -2.9 DEG C; variation trend of precipitation is not obvious, the difference is mainly reflected in between the different GCM models, the prediction result of CNRM-CM5 model is more dry. (2) the future climate change, increasing temperature affect the climate niche distribution in the study area of Chinese fir significant. In the future, to control greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5) of Chinese fir climatic niche distribution will have a big impact. And take effective greenhouse gas Emissions mitigation measures actively to this condition, according to the forecast results, the effective control of greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP2.6), the study area of Chinese fir climate niche distribution in the range of 2050s and 2080s were only reduced by 5.4% and 12.4%. also need to pay attention to is, the prediction of the actual ecology of Chinese fir but, the survival of Chinese fir growth is still unknown in the current climate niche range, should be further discussed. (3) validation of FORECAST Climate model shows that, on the 8 day cycle climate model output growth response index average value has significant correlation between synthesis and 8 days of MODIS net based on the relative value of photosynthesis yield (r=0.84, P0.0001), shows that the model has higher accuracy and reasonable accuracy, can be applied to the research about the study area. (4) of Chinese fir forest climate Has a positive effect to improve the productivity of the forest, Chinese fir trunk biomass productivity first rotation period (1-30 years) increased by 3.9% ~ 9.5%, second rotation period (31-60 years) increased by 3.9% to 9.5% to third, a rotation period (61-90 years) increased 5.3% to 12.9%, which is mainly attributed to increased growth the season caused by climate change increases gradually and nutrient cycling rate. Model prediction shows that although climate change would lead to the dry season of Chinese fir water stress increased, however, drought related mortality was not increased. It is also important to note that if future climate change will lead to the mechanism due to increased interference caused by biological and non biological the interference of mortality, so the research and prediction of climate change related to increase the growth of Chinese fir results may not be achieved. (5) the establishment of the LST model can be used as a forest management unit The decision model, the output matrix allows the user to generate decision according to the values of various indicators of the importance of decision tradeoff analysis to decide on the measures for better management of forest management objective according to the given weights. (6) for the implementation of adaptive management of forest response to climate change, increasing public awareness and participation degree; forest management units should actively change the mode of operation, the implementation of effective management measures; government departments should give full play to the leading role, promote the development of forest adaptability policy, improvement and implementation.

【学位授予单位】：福建农林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：S791.27

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