美国网络威慑政策研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 20:44

本文选题：美国 + 网络威慑　；参考：《上海社会科学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：威慑是一种关于冲突的理论,在世界冷战时期威慑战略遏制了核大战的发生;如今在网络威胁复杂化、网络冲突多变化、网络空间军事化的形势下,威慑的概念方法再次受到广泛关注。2009年以来,美国政府官员和军方不断呼吁加强网络威慑,美国的智库和学界也掀起了一场研究网络威慑的浪潮。尽管近年来网络威慑已引起我国学者和政策制定者的关注,但对于美国网络威慑政策尚缺乏较为系统和全面的研究,而国内外关于网络威慑是否可行也存在不同观点。因此,本论文试图对美国网络威慑政策做一个全景扫描和系统疏理,并对其进行初步的研究分析和评价。首先,本文考察了网络威慑理论的起源与发展,分析了核威慑与网络威慑理论的联系与区别;其次,本文回顾了美国网络威慑政策的历史发展,探究其发展中的阶段性特点;第三,本文总结了美国网络威慑政策制定者及其主要关注点;最后,本文对美国在网络威慑上已有的一些政策举措做出评价和思考。本文初步得出的结论包括以下几个方面:(1)美国将威慑引入网络空间,主要是因为冷战结束后威胁发生变化,战争进入网络时代;与传统威慑相比,网络威慑的特点在于冲突层次低、攻防双方力量不对称、难以溯源和效果不确定。(2)美国网络威慑政策是网络防御政策的补充和提升,经历了克林顿时期、小布什时期和奥巴马时期的发展,发展出报复性威慑政策,其政策用语中高频词呈现的规律可以体现美国网络威慑政策的阶段特点。(3)美国网络威慑政策的制定主要由美国的军事、情报、司法和外交部门主导,政策的制定背后有党派政治和利益集团游说的影响。美国所要威慑的主要目标国家是俄罗斯、中国、伊朗和朝鲜四国,其网络威慑政策没有脱离美国既有的网络安全政策。(4)美国网络威慑政策实施没有取得明显成效,且高调的威慑使全球网络空间竞争博弈和对抗冲突更加紧张;美国网络威慑政策采用理性威慑的理论,忽视了决策中非理性因素的影响,且太过确信影响对手心理的能力。中美在网络空间的合作利益大于竞争冲突,美国应停止抹黑中国在网络空间的形象,同时停止边缘化中国价值观的行为;中国也应该在国际上发声,阐明自己对网络的主张,同时自主研发涉及国家安全命脉的网络安全技术,以自卫为目的发展网络军事力量。
[Abstract]:Deterrence is a theory of conflict. During the cold war in the world, deterrence strategy contained the occurrence of nuclear war. Now, with the complexity of cyber threats, the variety of cyber-conflicts, and the militarization of cyberspace, Since 2009, US government officials and the military have repeatedly called for the strengthening of cyber deterrence, and American think-tanks and academics have launched a wave of research on cyber deterrence. Although network deterrence has attracted the attention of Chinese scholars and policy makers in recent years, there is still a lack of systematic and comprehensive research on the policy of network deterrence in the United States, and there are different views at home and abroad on the feasibility of network deterrence. Therefore, this paper attempts to do a panoramic scan and systematic dredging of American network deterrence policy, and makes a preliminary study and evaluation of it. Firstly, this paper examines the origin and development of the theory of network deterrence, analyzes the relationship and difference between the theory of nuclear deterrence and the theory of network deterrence, secondly, this paper reviews the historical development of the policy of network deterrence in the United States, and probes into the stage characteristics of its development. Thirdly, this paper summarizes the policy makers of American cyber deterrence and their main concerns. Finally, this paper evaluates and ponders some policy measures that the United States has taken in the field of cyber deterrence. The preliminary conclusions of this paper include the following aspects: 1) the United States has introduced deterrence into cyberspace, mainly because the threat has changed since the end of the Cold War and the war has entered the cyber age; compared with traditional deterrence, The characteristics of cyber deterrence are that the level of conflict is low, the forces of attack and defense are asymmetrical, it is difficult to trace the source and the effect is uncertain) the US cyber-deterrence policy is a supplement and upgrade of the cyberdefense policy, and it has experienced the Clinton period. The development of the Bush and Obama years, the development of retaliatory deterrence policy, The regularity of high-frequency words in its policy terms can reflect the characteristics of the stage of US cyber-deterrence policy.) the formulation of US cyber-deterrence policy is mainly dominated by the military, intelligence, judicial and diplomatic departments of the United States. The policy was made with the influence of partisan politics and interest group lobbying. The main target countries that the United States wants to deter are Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Its cyber deterrence policy is not divorced from the existing US cybersecurity policy. Moreover, the high-profile deterrence makes the global cyberspace competition and confrontation more tense. The American network deterrence policy adopts the theory of rational deterrence, neglects the influence of irrational factors in decision-making, and is too convinced of the ability to influence the adversary's psychology. The interests of Sino-US cooperation in cyberspace are greater than those of competition. The United States should stop discrediting China's image in cyberspace and stop marginalizing Chinese values. China should also speak out internationally to clarify its position on the Internet. At the same time, independent research and development of the national security lifeline network security technology, self-defense for the purpose of the development of cyber military force.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D771.2

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