航班优化决策支持系统的设计与实现

发布时间：2018-03-16 14:23

本文选题：航班计划　切入点：决策支持系统　出处：《中国民航大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：航班计划是航空公司生产运营的基础和核心,也是航空公司内部进行日常工作的核心依据。航空公司围绕航班计划来安排人员、调配运力以及进行管理。航班计划一般是在航季开始前的1个月就已经制定完成。然而,在实际的生产运营中,由于航班销售数据和计划前可能存在较大的偏差,航空公司为了节约资源,提高收入,需要在航班离港前,对航班计划做出调整。国内各航空公司对于航班计划的调整,主要仍是由负责计划制定的工作人员进行。而各工作人员对于航班计划调整方案的确定则主要依赖于工作人员自身的工作经验以及业务能力,不仅影响效率而且容易出错。然而,目前国内外还没有解决此问题成熟的系统出现,本文从航空公司的实际需求出发,研究航班优化决策支持系统的设计与实现。该系统是在现有航班计划的基础上,依据航班预售人数和历史售票数据,对该航班未来销售人数实时预测,及时合理地调整航班计划(包括:机型调整、取消航班、新增航班),从而达到提高整个航空公司运营效益的目的。本文所做的工作如下:(1)提出了一种航线旅客需求的组合预测模型,该模型利用预售人数和历史销售数据,对未来日期航线旅客需求进行预测。此项工作是航班计划调整方案的基础。(2)围绕航班效益,设计了三种航班计划调整方案,包括机型调整、取消航班、新增航班。(3)在前两项工作的基础上,结合航空公司的实际业务需求,给出了航班优化决策支持系统的整体设计,并给出了三种调整方案评估的具体实现。
[Abstract]:Flight planning is the basis and core of airline production and operation, as well as the core basis for daily work within the airline. The airline arranges personnel around the flight plan. Deployment of capacity and management. Flight plans are usually completed one month before the start of the season. However, in actual production operations, there may be a large deviation between the flight sales data and the plan, In order to save resources and raise revenue, airlines need to make adjustments to their flight plans before they leave Hong Kong. The determination of the flight plan adjustment programme by the staff members depends primarily on the staff members' own work experience and operational capacity. It not only affects efficiency but also makes mistakes easily. However, there is no mature system to solve this problem at home and abroad. This paper starts from the actual demand of airlines. This paper studies the design and implementation of flight optimization decision support system. The system is based on the existing flight plan, according to the number of flight presale and historical ticket sales data, real-time prediction of the future number of sales of the flight. Timely and reasonable adjustment of flight plans (including: aircraft type adjustment, cancellation of flights, The work done in this paper is as follows: (1) A combined forecasting model of passenger demand on airline routes is proposed, which uses pre-sale number and historical sales data. This work is the basis of the flight plan adjustment scheme. (2) around the flight efficiency, three kinds of flight plan adjustment schemes are designed, including model adjustment, cancellation of flights, On the basis of the first two tasks, combined with the actual business requirements of the airline, the overall design of the flight optimization decision support system is presented, and the concrete implementation of the evaluation of the three adjustment schemes is given.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F560.6;TP311.52

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