易腐农产品的价格波动分析——以油桃为例

发布时间：2018-06-21 07:21

本文选题：油桃 + 价格　；参考：《农业技术经济》2017年08期

【摘要】：为掌握油桃价格波动规律,稳定油桃市场价格,提升桃农收入,本文使用了EGARCH、TARCH的ARCH类模型对油桃的价格波动及波动特征进行了分析。研究表明,油桃价格波动存在显著的集簇性和非对称性,即价格波动具有正相关性以及价格下跌信息引发的波动大于价格上涨信息引发的波动。据此本文提出两点建议:油桃货架期短,损耗大,应建立畅通的物流通道,采用冷链物流技术,缩短物流时间、降低油桃在物流过程中的损耗;桃农缺乏准确的油桃市场信息,应建立涵盖全产业的综合性信息平台,发布权威市场信息,着重关注价格下跌信息并采取科学的预警措施。
[Abstract]:In order to understand the fluctuation law of nectarine price, stabilize the market price of nectarine, and increase the income of peach farmers, this paper uses the arch model of EGARCHTARCH to analyze the price fluctuation and fluctuation characteristics of nectarine. The results show that there is significant clustering and asymmetry in price fluctuation of nectarine, that is, the price fluctuation is positively correlated and the fluctuation caused by price decline information is larger than that caused by price rise information. Based on this, this paper puts forward two suggestions: nectarine has short shelf life and large loss, so it is necessary to establish an unimpeded logistics channel, adopt cold chain logistics technology, shorten the logistics time and reduce the loss of nectarine in the process of logistics, and peach farmers lack accurate market information of nectarine. We should establish a comprehensive information platform covering the whole industry, issue authoritative market information, pay attention to the information of price decline and take scientific early warning measures.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学经济管理学院;
【分类号】：F323.7

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