中国 FDI 对沙哈拉以南非州地区的经济增长的影响

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1  Research Background

Foreign  direct  investment  (FDI)  has  played  a  paramount  role  in  many  of  the developing  economies  of  Africa especially  in  the  Sub-Saharan  Region.  There  is  a widespread  credence  among  policymakers  that  foreign  direct investment  (FDI) enhances  the  productivity  of  host  countries  and  promotes  development.  There  are several researches  done  on  FDI  and  its  impact  on  the  host  economy.  Their  findings vary from different methods utilized on their research, some of the researchers found that  FDI  has  a  positive  Impact  on  economic  magnification.  In  the developing  world, FDI  has  become  the  most  stable  and  most  sizably  voluminous  component  of  capital flows. Consequently,  FDI  has  become  a  paramount  alternative  in  the  development finance process. Many reasons have been  given  for the paramountcy of  FDI inflows, including  employment  creation,  technological  know-how,  and enhanced competitiveness.

According  to  the International  Monetary  Fund,  foreign  direct  investment, commonly known as FDI refers to an investment made to acquire lasting or long term interest  in  enterprises  operating  outside  of  the  economy  of  the investor."  The investment is direct because the investor, which could be a foreign person, company or group of entities, is seeking to control, manage, or have significant influence over the foreign  enterprise.  FDI  is  a  major  source  of external  finance  which  means  that countries with limited amounts of capital can receive finance beyond national borders from  wealthier  countries.  Exports  and  FDI  have  been  the  two  key  ingredients in China's rapid  economic growth.  According  to  the World  Bank,  FDI  and  small business growth are the two critical elements in developing the private sector in lower-income economies and reducing poverty.

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1.2  Problem Statement

Foreign  Direct  Investment  (FDI)  has  been  viewed  as  a  major  stimulus  to economic  magnification  in  developing countries.  Its  ability  to  deal  with  two  major obstacles; namely, shortages of financial resources and technology and skills, has made it  the  center  of  attention  for  policymakers  in  low  income  countries  in  particular.  In spite of the paramountcy engendered by  FDI  flows, the flow to developing countries and the world, in general, has witnessed sedulously assiduous decline over the  years. The implicative insinuation for the drop denotes that competition to magnetize FDI has incremented as developing countries perpetuate to engender the enabling environment to magnetize foreign investors.  Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), in particular, has, over the last  decade,  pursued  sundry  forms  of economic  reforms  and  liberalization  of  trade regimes in order to become more competitive in the international financial market. A handful of papers have recently dealt with FDI flows in SSA. However, most of these studies are concerned with strategic FDI policy to magnetize FDI flows.

In  recent  years,  the  expedited  growth  and  more  preponderant  openness  of  the Chinese  economy  has  led them  to  becoming  one  of  the  increasingly  consequential players in the global economy. Since 1990 the Chinese economy has grown at virtually 10% per annum. Although China's quota of world output and trade still lag abaft their quota  of  world  population,  these  have  incremented  significantly.  The  growing paramountcy of China on the Global scene has led to concerns in both developed and developing  countries.  In  the  case  of  the  latter,  the  impacts  of China,  particularly  on other  countries  in  Asia  and  more  recently  on  Latin  America  has  been  a  focus  of attention, but up to now there has been very little work on the impact on developing Sub-Saharan  African  countries, despite  the  fact  that  trade  between  China  and  some African  countries  has  grown  significantly  since  1990  and that  in  the  last  few  years China  has  additionally  emerged  as  sources  of  foreign  direct  investment  (FDI)  in  the region.

This paper seeks to access the impact of China's direct foreign investment on Sub-Saharan  Africa.  It  then  seeks  to identify  which  sector  of  the  Sub-Saharan  African economy has been drastically affected as a result of China's foreign investments.

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Chapter 2: The present situation of Chinese FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa and its influence mechanism

2.1  Economic Outlook of Sub-Saharan Africa 

Sub-Saharan  Africa  is,  geographically,  the  area  of  the  African  continent  that  lie south of the Sahara Desert and consists of 49 countries. It contrasts with North Africa, which is considered part of the Arab World. It has a combined population of up to one billion people due to having the highest population growth in the world, a number that is  expected to  more  than  double  by  2050.  More  than  40%  of  the  population  in  Sub-Saharan Africa is younger than 15 years old, with the exception of South Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is seen as the new frontier of growth. In 2013, economic growth in the region was at 4.9%, compared to 3% for the global economy, and is projected to about 5.5% in 2014. Supported by sound economic policies, debt relief, stronger institutions and high investments, many countries have now sustained a 5-6% growth rate for more than a decade. Economic activity and growth in the region continues to be underpinned by  large  investments  in  infrastructure  and  is  supported  by  a  continuation  of  strong domestic demand  and  higher  production  in  the  mineral  resources,  agriculture  and service  sectors.  Growth  in  exports  has been  supported  by  strong  demand  from developing countries, in particular China, given its relatively high resource intensity in production and its fast growth rate. The world has started to look to Africa as a high-growth  market  due  to opportunities  opened  up  by  strong  growth  in  the  region, improved regulation, a growing middle class with higher discretionary income, the fast pace of urbanization, which makes it easier to reach consumers, and one of the highest rates of return globally. Developments are also supported by the new political dynamic in many African countries, which is a good foundation for strong social, economic and ecological  developments.  Responsible  governments  are  talking over and  they  are monitored  by  an  active  civil  society.  Additionally,  enhanced  regional  cooperation enables  Africa  to speak  with  one  voice  and  to  emerge  as  an  important  player  on  the global political stage.

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2.2  Sub-Saharan Africa Investment Regime and Climate

SSA is bucking global investment trends. While foreign direct investment (FDI) is declining globally, flows to SSA are growing. FDI into Africa increased by 5.5% last year,  reaching  $38  billion,  even  as  the  total  to  developing countries fell  by  6%.  It  is forecast to reach $56 billion by 2015. This is a result of changing investor perceptions of  the  region, due  to  improving  political  stability  and  governance,  strong  economic growth, and high commodity prices. The trend is likely to continue thanks to good FDI profitability (U.S. data shows a 20% return on investment in Africa, compared to 15% in  Asia  and  14%  in  Latin  America).  The  principal  beneficiaries  of  FDI  in  Africa  are still oil and gas-producing countries, such as Nigeria and Angola. As natural resource-related  activities  diversify  beyond  extraction,  FDI  targeting construction,  distribution and  storage  is  increasing.  Investment  in  the  service  sector  now  exceeds  that  in  the primary  sector.  Poverty  reduction  has  meant  an  increase  in  investment  targeting  the rising African middle class. A recent poll of investors found that key motives for FDI in Africa were potential growth of domestic markets and proximity to consumers. As a result,  a  substantial  amount  of  FDI  goes  to  manufacturing  industries  like  food, beverages, tobacco, and motor vehicles. Whereas before the crisis European and U.S. firms were the principal investors in Africa, companies from emerging markets (mainly China and India, but also Brazil, South Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam and Turkey) are now the main source of FDI on the continent. According to UNCTAD (The United Nations Conference on Trade and Investment) estimates, in 2012 FDI inflows from developing economies into Africa exceeded those from developed economies for the first time.

Despite the current ‘Africa rising’ narrative, SSA still presents investment risks. The region as a whole continues to score poorly in terms of ease of doing business: 40 out  of  46  SSA  states  are  among  the  world’s  100  worst  performers for  business environment. This is broadly due to continued poor performance in terms of corruption, red tape and governance. In some cases, the conditions for doing business are actually deteriorating (e.g. Uganda has complicated property registration procedures).

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CHAPTER 3: THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CHINESE FDI ON SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ......... 38

3.1  Empirical research on Chinese FDI in Sub Saharan Africa ............ 38

3.1.1  The influence channels of Chinese FDI on Sub-Saharan Africa .......... 38

Chapter 4: Results and Discussions ................... 68

4.1  Results  .................. 68

4.1.1  Regression Analysis ...................... 68

Chapter 4: Results and Discussions

4.1  Results

4.1.1   Regression Analysis

The regression at its foundation is a decent depiction of what affects growth. The ways that was chosen for measuring the variables was not really the best method for there are many ways of measuring the impact of Chinese Foreign Direct investment on the economic growth of Sub Saharan Africa. Scale values might not be the best to use in  order  to  get  a better  estimation  of  the  impact  that  the  variable  has.  The  impact  of Chinese  FDI  on  Sub  Saharan  Africa  had other  alternative  methods  on  how  to  be analyzed,  either  as  net  inflows  or  outflows.  The  outcome  therefore not  very  reliable, but hope is that they can give a clear idea and recommendations on how Chinese FDI has impacted the Sub Sahara African region. With the above being said, based on the outcome of our research, the following is what the thesis finds.

4.1.2   Hypothesis Test Result

Model 1 displays the statistic tests and corrections of factors that affect economic growth  (GDP).  The  first  hypothesis  (H1)  states  that  there  is  a  positive  relationship between  GDP  and  Chinese  FDI  (CFDI).  The  test  result  indicates  a  correlation  of 1.44875e-08  and  a  p-value  of  0.0076  indicating  a  significant  positive  correlation between  GDP  and  FDI.  The  correlation  and  test  of  significance  between  GDP  and GEXP was ?2.85165 and 0.9123 at 5% significance showing an insignificant negative relationship  between  GDP  and  GEXP.  A  correlation  value 1.44875  and  P-value  of 0.0076  at  5%  significance.  We  therefore  have  enough  evidence  to  support  the hypothesis  1  (H1)  that  GDP  and  FDI  are  positively  related  with  the  relation  being  a significant one for that matter.

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Conclusion

As a conclusion, Chinese FDI has continued to play  a significant role in the Sub Sahara  African  region.  Chinese relations with  African  countries  have  been  positive  in some  ways;  serious  questions  are  being  asked  by  Western  and African  intellectuals about  China’s  tactics  and  strategies  in  its  quest  for  resources.  Unfortunately,  many authoritarian African leaders have actually embraced the Chinese model allowing them to  maintain  a  strong  grip  on political  power  (Brooks  and  Shin,  2006).  Economy  and Monaghan (2006) also mentioned that African leaders cite China as the ideal model for their countries and economies. Through the analysis above and the results, the following conclusions were drawn;

1.  The identification of a positive relationship between CFDI and GDP indicates that Chinese  FDI  can  be  a  catalyst for growth  in  the  Sub  Saharan  Africa  region. Presently,  Chinese  FDI  inflows  have  generally  increased  over  the years  since  the region  has  discovered  many  investment  opportunities.  Notwithstanding,  Chinese FDI inflows do not seem to have a massive impact on government expenditure in the  region.  Through  this  research  it  has  come  to our  knowledge  that  economic development  and  growth  can  be  achieved  in  the  Sub  Saharan  African  region, through  the  encouragement  of  more  Chinese  FDI  to  the  region  which  can  help  in the  enhancement  of infrastructure  and  also  help  develop  other  under  developed sectors of the Sub Saharan African region.

2.  From the econometric analysis above, the results also shows a positive relationship between  CFDI  and  IND meaning that  the  presence  of  Chinese  FDI  in  the  Sub Saharan  region  has  a  positive  effect  on  the  industry  structure in the  region. Secondly, the analysis shows that there is a positive relation between Chinese FDI and Employment (EMP) which also means that the presence of Chinese companies in the Sub Saharan African region opens the room for more employment creation. 

reference(omitted)