WONCA研究论文摘要汇编——预测未来所需医生岗位增加量,避免2035年可预见的初级医生短缺

发布时间：2018-05-20 05:22

本文选题：初级医生 + WONCA　；参考：《中国全科医学》2015年17期

【摘要】：目的本研究旨在预测未来初级医生短缺情况,确定未来所需医生岗位增加量和构成,预测行医规模和退休年龄改变的影响。方法根据2010年美国国家流动医疗调查数据,计算流动初级医疗服务利用情况,并根据美国人口统计局数据预测未来人口学改变。根据美国医学协会Masterfile文件内容,确定初级医疗医生的基线数量和将在66岁退休的医生数量。利用专业委员会和美国骨科协会数据,对初级医疗医生年产量进行估算。以2015—2035年累计初级医疗医生需求数量,减去初级医生累计产量,得到初级医疗医生短缺数量。结果截至2035年,初级医疗医生需求量将达到44 000人。目前的初级医疗医生产量将无法满足该需求,届时初级医疗医生缺口将达到33 000人。以目前的医生年产量,截至2035年仍需额外增加1 700个初级医疗医生岗位。如果每一位初级医疗医生负责的人口数量减少10%,则需要额外增加超过3 000个初级医疗医生岗位。如果初级医疗医生退休年龄由66岁降低到64岁,那么另外需增加2 400个岗位。结论为了防止2035年医生缺口的出现,初级医疗医年生产量与当前相比需增长21%。以配送模式进行的初级医疗使人口/医生比率减小,这可能会进一步加大医生缺口。
[Abstract]:Objective to predict the shortage of primary doctors in the future, to determine the increase and composition of doctors' posts, and to predict the influence of the scale of medical practice and the change of retirement age. Methods the utilization of mobile primary health care services was calculated according to the data of the National Mobile Medical Survey in 2010, and the demographic changes in the future were predicted according to the data of the United States Census Bureau. According to the Masterfile document of the American Medical Association, determine the baseline number of primary care doctors and the number of doctors who will retire at the age of 66. Using data from the Professional Committee and the American Orthopaedic Association, the annual output of primary care physicians is estimated. Based on the cumulative demand for primary care doctors in 2015-2035, minus the cumulative production of primary care doctors, there is a shortage of primary care doctors. As a result, the demand for primary care doctors will reach 44,000 by 2035. Current primary care output will fall short of the demand, with a shortfall of 33,000 primary care doctors. With current annual doctor output, an additional 1,700 primary care positions will be needed by 2035. If the number of people responsible for each primary care doctor is reduced by 10 percent, more than 3,000 additional primary care jobs will be required. If the retirement age for primary care doctors were reduced from 66 to 64, an additional 2,400 jobs would be needed. Conclusion in order to prevent the doctor gap in 2035, the annual output of primary medical care needs to increase by 21% compared with the current one. Primary care in the distribution mode reduces the population / doctor ratio, which may further increase the doctor gap.
【分类号】：R192

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