区域一体化对中部非洲经济增长的影响

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the research and statement of the problem

The  agreement  among  countries  in  a  geographic  region  so  as  to  enable  them  reduce  and eventually draw off tariff and non-tariff barriers to the free flow of goods or services and also factors of production among each other’s is known as regional economic integration. In this theory, it’s gainful to every last member or country involves. Over the last twenty years, there may be an increment in the number of regional trade agreement. Generally, the highest target for regional  integration  is  to  coordinate  a  common  economic  space  among  all  the participating  countries.  Often, Monetary  and  economic  integration  may  evolve  from  trade connections, diachronic and cultural binds. As a result, many regional economic communities have sprung up in the black continent particularly, since 1960s when most African countries got  independence  among  which  one  of  the  oldest  regional  groupings  in  Africa  known  as CEMAC. Well plotted to promote the entire process of sub-regional integration through the forming  of  a  monetary  union  (Central  African  CFA  franc)  as  a  mutual  currency  inherited from  previous  colonial  power  France.  UDEAC  also  known  as “the  Customs  and  Economic Union of Central Africa” was replaced by CEMAC it became officially in June 1999 (through agreement  from  1994).  This  Central  regional  integration  of  Africa  consists  of  Cameroon, Equatorial  Guinea, Central  Africa  republic,  Gabon,  Chad,  and  the  Republic  of  the  Congo. Economic  and  Monetary  Community  of Central  Africa  quick  objective  is  to  assemble a Central  African common  market.  For  that  reason  four antecedence  fields  for  the organization were indicated: On create capacities which uphold peace, security and stability, secure  sovereign  financing  instrument  for  ECCAS,  create  physical,  economic  and monetary integration, and also create a culture of human integration. This regional integration got  a  surface  area  of  three  million  kilometer  square which  represent  a  market  of  forty  two million  mixed  with  a  huge  number  of  natural  resources. In  this  region, almost  half  of  the population lives in Cameroon, which contributes twenty seven percent of the regional GDP. This trade block ratio of domestic savings to GDP stood at thirty two percent and represents the highest among the sub-Sahara groupings. Found at the equatorial region, this region has a diversity  of  the  climate  and  the  availability  of  land  that make  it  particularly  suited  to  the development of agro-pastoral activities. The integration is slow down by Chad, which suffers from the drying up of Lake Chad and invasion of the desert. Moreover, the world’s second largest  tropical  forest zone  is  found  in  the  Congo  Basin,  which  generates  an  exceptional ecological  diversity.  The  mineral  wealth includes  natural  gas,  manganese,  diamonds,  and deposits  of  oil,  gold,  and  uranium.  Timber  and  oil  are  the most  exploited  natural  resources due to the lack of private investment, moreover has been little or no exploitation of most of the natural resources. Central Africa, crude petroleum is an important natural resource for the CEMAC  countries which  account  for  almost  eighty  six  percent   of  Community  exports mainly to Europe and Asia continents and Congo depends on it for sixty one percent  of its GDP, Chad for forty percent, Gabon for half, and Cameroon for nearly ten percent.

.......................

1.2 Statement of the problem

Economic  integration  has  been  assert  to  be  a  force  for  economic  growth  and  development. However, since the integration of CEMAC countries was adopted it difficult to deduce if this economic policy has benefited it members countries  for more than two decade  one has  to ask what are the progress and challenge still exist till date. 

The research is organized as follows; chapter one is introduction( background of the research, statement of the problem, research objectives, significance of the research, Hypothesis, scope and  limitation  of  the  research,  structure  of  the research),  chapter  two  reviews  literature (theoretical  Analysis  and  empirical  Analysis  )   ,  chapter  three methodologies(  theoretical Framework, research methodology ,econometric Specification, unit Roots Tests, sources and data description) , chapter four presents ( regression result and analysis), chapter five presents conclusion, and policy recommendation. 

.......................

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Theoretical literature review analysis 

The debate around economic growth of a country, region or a continent has been the object of many empirical and theoretical studies or investigations. It has pulled a great part of attention in  the  propelled  historical  of  economics. Throughout  the  most  recent  two  decades,  the average growth of CEMAC has been slower over the SSA average. CEMAC countries main aim is to reach emerging country status within the next 20years, using a growth accounting approach, identifies the fundamental components of growth and analyzes the differences with respect  to  comparator countries  (IMF  ,July  1,  2015).Here  in  this  study,  the  results  of  the analysis  show  that  convergence  of  CEMAC countries  toward  emerging  market  levels  has stalled,  meanwhile  at  some  lower-income,  faster-growing  economies have  been  getting dependent  upon  .We  discover  that  total  factor  productivity  has  had  a  negative  impact  on CEMAC’s growth just in case there is decomposing growth by contributing factors, 

For  McCarthy,  1995,  p.  14  pointed  that  a  grammatical  way  to  identify  a  continent  and  his coherence regional integration alongside in Africa from other regions in the developing world is  known  as  Pan-Africanism,  Yet  the economic arguments  for  regional  co-operation especially  solid  given  the  small  size  of  many  SSA  countries  in  economic terms.  He  also added  that,  most  part  of  African  nations  exceptionally  reliant  on  agriculture  and  lack  high level of food security. In this portion, one might hope African regional integration schemes will  make  the  maximum  focus around  exploiting  whatever  synergies  might  exist  to  boost food  security.  Notwithstanding  the  force  of  these arguments,  essentially  all  regional integration endeavors in SSA to date have failed.

Bilateral  FTA,  regional  FTA  and  multilateral  FTA  are  the  different  trade  liberalization  and regional  economic integration  that  Indonesia  is  confronting  with  others  free  trade  areas. D.Hartono , March, 2007, main point was to examine the effect of international relationships on  Indonesian  economic  growth,  poverty  and  income  distribution. By using  a  Global Computable General Equilibrium (GCGE) model, we definitely made eighteen simulations to examine  the international  current  and  potential  relationship  that  is  faced  by  Indonesia.  In terms  of  real  GDP  with  no  doubt Indonesia  gains significant  benefit  and  yield  also  welfare but without FTA with India. Statistically, unskilled labor experiences are more advantageous than skilled labor and the reverse is true on poor household gain more profit than those of the rich household both in rural and areas. Individuals states suggest that FTA conceivably Might be an answer to national poverty diminishment.

...........................

2.2 Empirical literature review analysis

As  stated  by  A.  Vamvakidis,  May.  1998,  for  those  in  developing  countries  that  faced  fast economic  growth  of that  opened  their  markets  to  free  international  trade  throughout  as  far back  as  two  decades  has  fortified  an expansive  empirical  and  theoretical  literature  on  the impact  of  trade  on  growth.  The  study  concludes  that  free trade  and  growth  were  positively correlated throughout the 1970’s and 1980's.the question at stake is does regional integration is  necessary  for  a  country  or  region  economic  growth?  This  article  displays  experimental confirmation that nations with open, large, and more developed neighboring economies grow quicker over the individuals with closed, smaller, and less developed neighboring economies. The  results  are  robust  to  different  specifications  of  the empirical  model  and  different definitions of openness, suggesting that small economies should grow faster when they form regional  trade  agreements  with  large  and  more  developed  economies.  Here  the  result  are robust  to different  determinations  of  the  empirical  model  and  also  distinctive  definitions about openness, provided certain suggestion to little or small economies by stating that they should ought to develop and  more speedier over different point of  regional trade agreement with  greater  and  also  more  developed  economies.  However,  taking  five  regional trade agreements throughout the 1970s and 1980s for testing found that the effect led to a slower growth.  The fundamental  reason  in  this  situation  may  simply  due  to  the  fact  that  most  of these agreements were around small, closed, and developing economies.

Among a lot of economist who do have some researchers such as O. B. Emmanuel, May 21, 2013,  estimated  that  the impact  of  foreign  direct  investment  (FDI)  on  economic  growth  in CEMAC  countries.  The  estimation  was  applied using  a  basic  theory  of  endogenous  growth and on which the econometrical study is based on the work of an economist known as Alaya, Nicet-Chenaf, and Rougier (2009) and Borensztein, De Gregorio, and Lee (1998). This study covers  the  period  1980-2010  and  which  involves  all  the  six  countries  of  CEMAC.  The outcomes indicate that FDI influence Growth On the whole CEMAC nations except Congo. From  the  result  one  can  come  to  conclude  that  their influence  differs  from  one  country  to another. The principle recommendation of this research is to boost economic and the structure policies to modernize the economies of CEMAC.

.........................

 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY……………….…22

3.1.Theoritical Framework ……....22

3.2 Research Methodology ……………....23

CHAPTER 4: RESULT ANDANALYSIS…………………..…25

4.1Regression result and Analysis …………………..25

CHAPTER 5.CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION……………………………30

5.1Conclusion ………….30

5.2 Policy recommendations………………….30

CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

This  chapter  begins  by  testing  the  data  for  stationary  in  other  to  avoid  spurious  estimation (Meaningless estimation) then proceed to parametric estimation.

Table 4.1: The LLC and IPS Unit root test result

The result shows that the regression analysis of equation (6), a one percent increase in capital will lead to 13 percent increase in economic growth of CEMAC and statistically significant in explaining  economic  growth  in  this  region,  this not surprising  as  we  all  know  all  these countries  (region)  is  a  developing  countries  which  usually  insufficient  and deficient  capital stock  as  most  to  the  productive  activities  are  done  on  the  subsisting  level  and  labor  is  the major input in the production process in this economies, hence the low impact of capital in economic growth and development in this region, a one percent increase in labor input in the production process of this countries will lead to 8.9 percent increase the economics growth of the  CEMAC  countries  and  statistically  significant  in  explaining  variation  in the  economic growth in this region, this is in order as those countries has labor abundance and labor is the major  input in the  production  process  in  this  countries  and  consistent  with  or  a  priori expectation  of  the  inflation  of  labor  of the  economics  of  this  region.  The  sub-region economies  are  very  dualistic  in  nature.  The  creativity  of  very few paid  jobs  is  strongly dominant in the informal sector. Moreover, at school, home, mobility in the labor and market training  experience  assumed  capabilities  which  are  developed  through  formal  and  informal education. Added to the above, also quite some time now, the secondary school participation rate  has  impressively  expanded  and  continuous to  increase  still  ours  present  day  and  this exerts a positive externality on growth.

.........................

CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Conclusion

In  this  paper  we  have  attempted  to  examine  both  the  theoretical  and  empirical  issues  of regional economic integration. We have also attempted to substantiate some of the points by taking CEMAC as a case study to examined the effect of region integration on the economic growth  of  CEMAC  and  the  study  covers  the  period  of  1990  to 2014,  Panel  unit  root  were used to check the stability of the variable, the result showed that the variables were stationary at level, A panel econometric methodology were used to estimate the parameters, it show that Labor and Capital contributes positively and significantly both to economic growth across the sub-region as well as in individual member states and On the contrary, we notice a negative impact between regional integration with the economic growth and statistically significant on economic growth in the CEMAC region. This is contrary to expectation, however, is due to similarity of their economic structure, market size, short period time, lack of infrastructure, lack  capital  mobility,  wide disparities,  rivalry  and  internal  conflicts  and  at  the  other  hand some policy suggestions have been presented to improve the conditions of CEMAC such as compensatory  financing  and  transfer  arrangements  that  could  help  offset income  losses  in countries due to exogenous shocks. While there may be some limited compensatory measures to help poorer landlocked countries catch up with wealthier coastal ones, increase the level of infrastructures, build a proper customs regime to reduce or stop double taxation of products, sort  out  trade  relations  with  the  European  Union  and focus  over  regional  projects  such  as Chad-Cameroon pipeline..To resume regional integration may be insignificant to the present economic  growth  but  we  do  believe  it’s  a  matter  of  time  and  reform  organization.  End  by saying “Coming together is a beginning, keeping together is a progress and working together is success”.

reference(omitted)