晋北沙化区景观格局的动态变化与模拟

发布时间：2019-04-27 12:05

【摘要】：晋北沙化区位于我国山西省北部的黄土高原农牧交错带,长期受自然因素和人类活动的综合影响,出现了土地利用变化剧烈及景观格局的空间配置不合理等问题,景观格局的变化又反作用于区域环境,因此景观格局分析是研究景观格局和生态环境变化的重要手段,以此揭示景观格局和生态过程的关系,实现区域环境的可持续发展。本研究以景观生态学为主要理论依据,以地理信息系统、遥感等为技术支持,通过定量计算和定性分析法研究晋北沙化区景观格局及其时空变化特征,建立驱动因子与景观类型的Logistic回归模型,预测未来不同情景下晋北沙化区的景观格局演变趋势。在此基础之上,运用景观生态学和可持续发展理论,为晋北沙化区景观优化配置和制定土地利用规划提供科学有效的依据,降低未来发展过程中的潜在风险。主要结论有:(1)晋北沙化区土地利用景观格局主要以耕地、林地、草地景观类型为主,2000-2010年耕地分布最广,并且面积减少最多。研究区土地利用景观格局在晋北黄土丘陵沟壑区、大同盆地平原地区、恒山、五台山土石山区存在着分布差异,这客观的反应了由于不同区域的社会经济条件和自然条件的差异而导致了各区域间的景观格局不同。(2)类型水平的景观格局特征及时空变化分析可知:耕地是晋北沙化区占绝对优势的景观类型,且耕地最大斑块指数降低最多,景观优势度下降,异质性增强;除工矿用地和盐碱地外,其他景观类型的斑块密度和斑块个数均减小,表明斑块分布趋于规整,斑块连片化程度提高,破碎化程度降低;在研究期间内,耕地、林地、草地三种景观类型的斑块指数都在降低,人类活动增强导致工矿用地和盐碱地呈增加趋势,斑块形状趋于复杂。(3)景观水平的景观格局特征及时空变化分析可知:晋北沙化区斑块分布集中,破碎化程度降低,斑块间的连通性增大;景观要素趋于多样化发展,景观异质性提高,景观类型从单一型转化为多元型,趋于稳定发展;景观整体聚集度和蔓延度增加,斑块间的空间关系趋于聚合。(4)基于CLUE-S模型以2000年土地利用景观格局模拟2010年土地利用景观格局,经Kappa验证系数为0.9244,模拟效果非常理想,证明CLUE-S模型能够很好的模拟晋北沙化区土地利用景观格局。(5)以2010年的土地利用景观格局为基年数据,设定自然发展情景、协调发展情景和经济发展情景3种情景,模拟2020年晋北沙化区的土地利用景观格局变化,结果表明,3种模拟情景下的土地利用景观格局在空间上存在差异。并针对晋北沙化区的复杂景观格局提出对策。
[Abstract]:The sandy area of northern Shanxi Province is located in the interlaced zone of agriculture and animal husbandry on the Loess Plateau in the northern part of Shanxi Province of China. Under the comprehensive influence of natural factors and human activities for a long time, there are some problems, such as severe land use change and unreasonable spatial allocation of landscape pattern, and so on. Therefore, landscape pattern analysis is an important means to study landscape pattern and ecological environment change, in order to reveal the relationship between landscape pattern and ecological process, and to realize the sustainable development of regional environment. Taking landscape ecology as the main theoretical basis, geographical information system and remote sensing as technical support, the landscape pattern and its spatio-temporal change characteristics in the sandy area of northern Shanxi are studied by quantitative calculation and qualitative analysis, and the characteristics of landscape pattern and spatial-temporal change are studied by quantitative calculation and qualitative analysis. The Logistic regression model of driving factor and landscape type was established to predict the evolution trend of landscape pattern in the sandy area of North Shanxi under different scenarios in the future. On this basis, the theory of landscape ecology and sustainable development is used to provide scientific and effective basis for landscape optimal allocation and land use planning in the sandy area of North Shanxi, and to reduce the potential risk in the future development process. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the landscape pattern of land use in the sandy area of North Shanxi is mainly cultivated land, woodland and grassland landscape type. The distribution of cultivated land from 2000 to 2010 is the broadest, and the area decreases the most. The landscape pattern of land use in the study area is different in loess hilly and gully area, Datong basin plain area, Hengshan mountain and Wutai mountain area. This objectively reflects the different landscape patterns among different regions due to the differences in socio-economic and natural conditions in different regions. (2) the analysis of landscape pattern characteristics and spatio-temporal changes at the type level indicates that cultivated land is cultivated land. It is the dominant landscape type in the sandy area of northern Shanxi. Moreover, the maximum patch index of cultivated land decreased the most, the landscape dominance decreased, and the heterogeneity increased. The patch density and patch number of other landscape types decreased except for industrial and mineral land and saline-alkali land, indicating that the patch distribution tended to be regular, the patch fragmentation degree increased, and the fragmentation degree decreased. During the study period, the patch index of the three landscape types of cultivated land, woodland and grassland all decreased, and the enhancement of human activities led to an increasing trend of industrial and mining land and saline-alkali land. The patch shape tends to be complex. (3) the landscape pattern characteristics and spatio-temporal changes of landscape level show that the patch distribution is concentrated, the degree of fragmentation decreases, and the connectivity between patches increases in the sandy area of North Shanxi; Landscape elements tend to diversified development, landscape heterogeneity is improved, landscape types from single type to multi-type, tend to stable development; The spatial relationship between patches tends to aggregate with the increase of landscape aggregation and creeping degree. (4) based on the CLUE-S model, the land use landscape pattern of 2010 was simulated based on the land use landscape pattern in 2000, and the Kappa verified coefficient was 0.9244, The simulation result is very ideal, which proves that the CLUE-S model can simulate the land use landscape pattern well in the sandy area of North Shanxi Province. (5) taking the land use landscape pattern of 2010 as the base year data, the natural development scenario is set up. Three scenarios of coordinated development and economic development were used to simulate the changes of land use landscape pattern in the sandy area of North Shanxi in 2020. The results showed that there were spatial differences in the landscape pattern of land use under the three scenarios. And put forward countermeasures to the complex landscape pattern in the sandy area of North Shanxi.
【学位授予单位】：山西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P901

【参考文献】