中日舆情变化的影响因素——基于GMM模型

发布时间：2018-04-08 13:15

本文选题：中日关系　切入点：舆情　出处：《情报科学》2017年11期

【摘要】：【目的/意义】近年来,中日舆情恶化严重,而目前对其影响因素的研究仍停留在经验分析层面,亟需以科学方法来抓取其中的真因,从而为改善中日关系提供有效的建议。【方法/过程】基于国际传播理论,以调查数据作为分析样本,选取历史、军事、人文交流、经贸等具有代表性的影响因素作为分析变量,通过SPSS软件进行相关性分析,得出相关性系数较高的变量;再利用Eviews软件,通过逐步回归检验的方式进行广义矩估计,最终得出中日舆情变化的关键性影响因素。【结果/结论】研究结果显示,中日GDP比值、日本军费占GDP比值、日本首相参拜靖国神社、中国赴日旅游人数等是影响中日舆情变化的关键因素。基于此,进一步探讨了中日关系改善的可能路径。
[Abstract]:[purpose / significance] in recent years, public opinion between China and Japan has deteriorated seriously, but the research on its influencing factors is still at the level of empirical analysis. It is urgent to grasp the true cause by scientific methods.In order to provide effective suggestions for improving Sino-Japanese relations. [methods / processes] based on international communication theory, using survey data as analysis samples, selecting history, military, human exchanges,The representative influencing factors such as economy and trade are used as analysis variables, and the variables with high correlation coefficient are obtained by correlation analysis by SPSS software. Then, the generalized moment estimation is carried out by means of stepwise regression test using Eviews software.Finally, the key factors influencing the change of public opinion between China and Japan are obtained. [results / conclusions] the research results show that the ratio of GDP between China and Japan, the ratio of Japan's military spending to GDP, and the Japanese Prime Minister's visit to Yasukuni Shrine,The number of Chinese traveling to Japan is the key factor to influence the change of public opinion between China and Japan.Based on this, the possible path of the improvement of Sino-Japanese relations is further discussed.
【作者单位】：中国政法大学;
【基金】：中国政法大学博士创新项目(2016BSCX20)
【分类号】：G206

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