手足口病传染率季节性及其与人口流动的关系

发布时间：2018-04-08 07:17

本文选题：手足口病　切入点：传染率　出处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2017年03期

【摘要】：以安徽省手足口病为例,估算手足口病传染率的季节性,分析人口流动与手足口病传染率季节性之间的关系。采用时间序列模型及简单整体模型估算了手足口病随时间变化的传染率,分析了手足口病传染率的季节性。通过线性回归模型分析了人口流动(公路旅客运输量)与手足口病的传染率季节性之间的关系。结果表明两种模型估算的手足口病传染率均有显著的年季节性,传染率峰值发生在每年2月春运期间;安徽省人口流动手足口病传染率季节性有显著影响。这些研究结果有助于分析手足口病的动态传播特性,能够更好地解释手足口病的报告发病数周期性的成因。
[Abstract]:Taking Anhui Province as an example of HFMD, estimates the seasonal HFMD incidence rate, analysis of population flow and HFMD seasonal relationships between the infection rate of HFMD. With the change of time infection rate was estimated by using time series model and simple model, analyzed the seasonal HFMD incidence rate through linear regression model analysis of the floating population (highway passenger traffic) relationship between the seasonal rate of hand foot and mouth disease and infection. The results show that the annual seasonal two models to estimate the HFMD infection rate significantly, infection rate peak occurred in February each year during the Spring Festival in Anhui province; floating population HFMD the disease rate has a significant effect on seasonal dynamic propagation characteristics. These results are helpful to the analysis of hand foot and mouth disease, can better explain the origin of the periodic report the incidence of HFMD.

【作者单位】：青岛大学复杂性科学研究所;
【基金】：山东省科技发展计划项目(2014GGX101031)
【分类号】：R181.3;R512.5

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