基于半参数广义相加模型探讨空气污染与儿童呼吸系统疾病的关系

发布时间：2018-03-31 03:07

本文选题：空气污染　切入点：细颗粒物　出处：《重庆医科大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：目的通过对重庆市主城区空气污染物与儿童呼吸系统门诊数据的收集、整理与分析,探索可吸入颗粒物PM10、细颗粒污染物PM2.5、臭氧、二氧化氮、二氧化硫对儿童每日呼吸系统门诊就诊量的影响,分析不同季节里空气污染物对儿童每日呼吸系统门诊就诊量的影响。方法收集重庆市主城区2015年6月1日至2016年5月31日于重庆医科大学附属儿童医院就诊的儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量,收集同时期每日可吸入颗粒物PM10、细颗粒污染物PM2.5、臭氧、二氧化氮、二氧化硫监测浓度,及每日最高气温与最低气温等气象数据。用Spearman秩相关分析重庆市主城区儿童呼吸系统门诊量与气象因素、各污染物的相关性;采用半参数广义相加模型(Semi-parametric Generalized Additive Model,SGAM),在控制气象因素、周效应、季节趋势及其他时间随机效应等可能混杂因素基础上,纳入0-5天滞后效应,定量分析重庆市主城区PM10、PM2.5、、臭氧、二氧化氮、二氧化硫对儿童每日呼吸系统门诊就诊量的影响。结果2015年6月1日至2016年5月31日重庆市主城区污染物PM10、PM2.5、臭氧、二氧化氮、二氧化硫平均浓度分别为73.305±30.539μg/m~3、49.200±23.848μg/m~3、85.800±48.613μg/m~3、42.422±11.138μg/m~3、14.106±5.425μg/m~3。污染物分布有季节性。Spearman秩相关分析结果显示重庆市主城区儿童呼吸系统门诊量与PM2.5、二氧化氮、二氧化硫正相关(分别为r=0.1260,P=0.0159、r=0.1362,P=0.0091、r=0.2212,P.0001),与臭氧、平均气温负相关(r=-0.4189,P.0001、r=-0.4919,P.0001);平均气温与门诊量、PM2.5、二氧化氮、二氧化硫均负相关(分别为r=-0.4919,P.0001、r=-0.2078,P.0001、r=-0.1534,P=0.0033、r=-0.3574,P.0001),与臭氧正相关(r=0.6727,P.0001)。SGAM在控制气象因素、周效应、季节变换及其他随时间效应混杂因素的基础上,PM10、PM2.5、臭氧、二氧化氮、二氧化硫对儿童每日呼吸系统就诊量有滞后效应。PM10滞后2天、4天时对儿童呼吸系统门诊量造成影响最大,浓度每升高10μg/m 3(lag2)儿童呼吸系统门诊量增加0.128%(t=2.66,P=0.0085);PM2.5滞后2天时对儿童呼吸系统门诊量造成影响最大,PM2.5浓度每升高10μg/m 3(lag2)儿童呼吸系统门诊量增加0.187%(t=2.95,P=0.0035)。臭氧、二氧化氮、二氧化硫滞后2天时对儿童呼吸系统门诊量影响最大,浓度每升高10μg/m~3(lag2)儿童呼吸系统门诊量增加0.121%(t=2.65,P=0.0086)、0.562%(t=3.87,P=0.0001)、1.020%(t=3.20,P=0.0016)。不同季节滞后效应有差异,春季污染物的滞后期差别较大,PM10、PM2.5、二氧化氮、二氧化硫滞后期为1天,臭氧滞后期为4天时拟合较好;夏季滞后期超过2天拟合较好,二氧化氮、二氧化硫滞后期为2天,PM10滞后期5天时拟合较好;秋季滞后期均不超过2天,二氧化硫滞后0天,PM10、PM2.5、二氧化氮滞后2天拟合较好;冬季滞后期较短,均不超过1天。结论本研究为可吸入颗粒物PM10、细颗粒污染物PM2.5、臭氧、二氧化氮、二氧化硫对儿童呼吸系统健康效应提供参考,重庆市主城区空气污染物对儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊人次数有影响,空气颗粒物污染水平越高,儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊人次数越多,且对人体的作用具有滞后效应。不同季节空气颗粒污染物对儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊人次数影响不同,滞后期也不同。
[Abstract]:The purpose of the city of Chongqing, city air pollution and children's respiratory outpatient data collection, collation and analysis, to explore the inhalable particles PM10, PM2.5 fine particulate pollutants, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide influence on children daily respiratory outpatient volume, analysis of the influence of different season air pollutants on children daily respiratory clinic the amount of outpatient pediatric respiratory diseases. Methods in Chongqing city from June 1, 2015 to May 31, 2016 at the children's Hospital Affiliated to Medical University Of Chongqing, collected during the same period the daily PM10 PM10 fine particulate pollutants PM2.5, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide concentration monitoring, and the daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature and other meteorological data. Using Spearman rank correlation the analysis of Chongqing city children's respiratory outpatient and meteorological factors, the pollutants are Correlation; using semi parametric generalized additive model (Semi-parametric Generalized Additive Model, SGAM), in the control of meteorological factors, week effect, seasonal trends and other possible confounding factors such as random effect time basis, into the 0-5 day lag effect, quantitative analysis of the main urban area of Chongqing City, PM10, PM2.5, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide on impact children's daily respiratory outpatient volume. Results from June 1, 2015 to May 31, 2016 in Chongqing city and the PM10, PM2.5, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide concentration were 73.305 + 30.539 g/m~3,49.200 + 23.848 g/m~3,85.800 + 48.613 g/m~3,42.422 + 11.138 g/m~3,14.106 + 5.425 g/m~3. contaminant distribution seasonal.Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that in Chongqing city children's respiratory outpatients with PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur oxide, two positive correlation (respectively r=0.1 260, P=0.0159, r=0.1362, P=0.0091, r=0.2212, P.0001), and ozone, the average temperature negative correlation (r=-0.4189, P.0001, r=-0.4919, P.0001); the average temperature and outpatient amount, PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide were negatively correlated (r=-0.4919, P.0001, r=, -0.2078, P.0001, r=-0.1534, P=0.0033, r=-0.3574, P.0001), positive correlation with ozone (r=0.6727, P.0001).SGAM in the control of meteorological factors, week effect, seasonal change with time and other confounding factors and effect on the basis of PM10, PM2.5, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, two has the lag effect of.PM10 lag of 2 days on children's respiratory daily visits, 4 days on children's respiratory system outpatient impact maximum concentrations increased every 10 g/m 3 (lag2) in children with respiratory outpatient increased 0.128% (t=2.66, P=0.0085); PM2.5 delay 2 days on children's respiratory outpatient caused the greatest impact, PM2.5 concentrations increased every 10 g/m (3 La G2) children's respiratory outpatient increased 0.187% (t=2.95, P=0.0035). Ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide lag of 2 days of childhood respiratory outpatient affected concentrations increased every 10 g/m~3 (lag2) in children with respiratory outpatient increased 0.121% (t=2.65, P=0.0086), 0.562% (t=3.87, P=0.0001, (1.020%) t=3.20, P=0.0016) in different seasons. The lag effect between spring pollutants lag phase difference, PM10, PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide lag period of 1 days, the ozone lag period of 4 days when the fitting is better; the summer lag period over 2 days of good fitting of nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide lag period of 2 days, the PM10 lag the 5 day lag period were fitted well; autumn is not more than 2 days, the sulfur dioxide lag of 0 days, PM10, PM2.5, NO2 lag 2 days fitting better; winter lag time is relatively short, not more than 1 days. Conclusion this study of respirable particulate matter PM10, fine grain PM2.5 particle pollutants, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and provide reference for health effects on children's respiratory system, Chongqing city has the effect of air pollutants on children's respiratory system disease outpatient number, the higher the level of particulate air pollution, the more the number of children's respiratory disease clinic, and the role of the human body has a lag effect. The effect of air particulate pollutants in different seasons on children's respiratory system diseases outpatient number of different lag period is different.

【学位授予单位】：重庆医科大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：R725.6

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