青海省果洛州儿童棘球蚴病的贝叶斯空间建模

发布时间：2018-06-09 03:40

本文选题：儿童棘球蚴病 + 遥感　；参考：《中国疾病预防控制中心》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：棘球蚴病是由寄生于人或者动物体内的棘球绦虫的幼虫引起的人兽共患寄生虫病。在我国,棘球蚴病有细粒棘球蚴病和多房棘球蚴病两种,主要流行于西部牧区,严重影响了人群健康和经济发展。已有研究表明,棘球蚴病的流行与生物因素、环境因素、社会因素等有关,本研究以棘球蚴病的高发地区青海省果洛州作为研究现场,结合RS/GIS技术、logistic回归分析、贝叶斯空间模型,以儿童血清学调查资料为基础,探索棘球蚴病流行的影响因素和空间分布规律,为棘球蚴病的防治工作提供参考依据。本研究首先对果洛州儿童棘球蚴病的流行情况进行了调查,通过分层整群抽样方法抽取了果洛州37个乡镇6-12岁儿童共7445名作为调查对象,调查儿童全部接受多普勒彩超和血清学检查(ELISA)。调查结果：果洛州37个乡镇儿童棘球蚴病总患病率为2.47%,患病率平均水平(中位数)为2.11%,患病率最高的乡镇为12.41%,最低的乡镇为O：37个乡镇儿童血清总阳性率为21.24%,血清阳性率的平均水平(中位数)为21.21%,血清阳性率最高的乡镇为45.04%,最低的乡镇为4.82%。然后,收集果洛州各乡镇的生物因素数据,包括户均犬数、犬均羊数、犬均牛数。同时,对收集的果洛州纸质地图进行矢量化,制作成果洛州行政区划电子地图,结合下载的SRTM3数据和MODIS数据,提取各乡镇高程、地表温度(LST)和归一化植被指数(NDVI)三个环境因素数据。以乡镇为单位的儿童棘球蚴病血清学检查(ELISA)数据为基础,采用logistic回归分析,分析了儿童血清阳性率与生物因素、环境因素的关系。结果显示：犬均羊数、高程与儿童血清阳性率正相关(回归系数分别为0.062和0.485),LST、NDVI与儿童血清阳性率负相关(回归系数分别为-0.630和-0.607),即犬均羊数、高程、LST、NDVI均对棘球蚴病的流行有影响。最后,运用区域数据的贝叶斯空间模型,对果洛州以乡镇为单位的儿童棘球蚴病血清阳性率数据、犬均羊数、高程、LST、NDVI进行了分析。影响因素分析结果与logistic回归分析结果一致,犬均羊数、高程与儿童血清阳性率正相关(回归系数分别为0.043和0.000159),LST、NDVI与儿童血清阳性率负相关(回归系数分别为-0.02214和-0.83935),四个指标均对棘球蚴病的流行有影响。空间分析结果显示,空间相关系数为0.343,95%可信区间(95%CI)为：-0.047-0.640,空间相关系数的95%CI包含0,空间相关系数没有统计学意义,说明以乡镇为单位的儿童棘球蚴病血清阳性率空间自相关性不强。本研究综合利用了RS/GIS技术、logistic回归分析、贝叶斯空间模型,以乡镇为单位对棘球蚴病流行的影响因素进行了分析,探索了棘球蚴病分布的空间规律,为棘球蚴病的预防控制提供了参考依据。2中国疾病预防控制中心硕士学位论文
[Abstract]:Echinococcosis is a zoonotic parasitic disease caused by the larva of Echinococcus solium parasitic on humans or animals. In China, there are two kinds of echinococcosis, echinococcosis and multilocularis echinococcosis, which are mainly prevalent in western pastoral areas, which seriously affect the health and economic development of the population. Previous studies have shown that the prevalence of echinococcosis is related to biological factors, environmental factors, social factors, etc. In this study, Guoluo County, Qinghai Province with high incidence of echinococcosis, was used as the research site, and logistic regression analysis was performed with RS / GIS technique. The Bayesian spatial model, based on the serological survey data of children, was used to explore the influencing factors and spatial distribution of echinococcosis. In this study, we investigated the prevalence of echinococcosis in children in Guoluo County, and selected 7445 children aged 6 to 12 years old from 37 towns in Guoluo County by stratified cluster sampling. All the children were examined by Doppler ultrasound and serological examination. The results showed that the total prevalence of echinococcosis in children in 37 towns of Guoro County was 2.47, the average prevalence rate was 2.11, the highest prevalence rate was 12.41 and the lowest was O: the total positive rate of children in 37 towns was 21.24g, the serum level was 21.24g. The average positive rate (median) was 21.21, the highest serum positive rate was 45.04 and the lowest was 4.82. The data of biological factors including the average number of dogs, the average number of dogs and sheep, and the number of cattle per dog were collected in each town of Guoluo County. At the same time, the collected paper map of Guoluo County was vectorized, and the electronic map of the administrative division of Guoluo County was made. Combined with the downloaded SRTM3 data and MODIS data, the height of each township was extracted. Land surface temperature (LST) and normalized vegetation index (NDVI). The relationship between serum positive rate and biological and environmental factors of children with echinococcosis was analyzed by logistic regression analysis based on the data of Echinococcosis serological examination in villages and towns. The results showed that there was a positive correlation between the average number of sheep in dogs, height and the positive rate of serum in children (regression coefficients were 0.062 and 0.485, respectively) and the positive rates of serum were negatively correlated (regression coefficients were -0.630 and -0.607 respectively, that is, the average number of sheep in dogs). The prevalence of echinococcosis was affected by LST-NDVI. Finally, using Bayesian spatial model of regional data, the data of serum positive rate of echinococcosis of children in Guoluo County, the number of average sheep in dogs and the height of LSTNDVI were analyzed. The result of influencing factor analysis was consistent with that of logistic regression analysis. There was a positive correlation between elevation and serum positive rate of children (the regression coefficients were 0.043 and 0.000159, respectively) and the positive rate of serum in children was negatively correlated (the regression coefficients were -0.02214 and -0.83935, respectively). All the four indexes had an effect on the prevalence of echinococcosis. The results of spatial analysis show that the spatial correlation coefficient is 0.34395% confidence interval (CI) is 0: -0.047-0.640, the spatial correlation coefficient contains 0, and the spatial correlation coefficient is not statistically significant. The results showed that the spatial autocorrelation of serum positive rate of children with echinococcosis was not strong. The logistic regression analysis and Bayesian spatial model were used in this study. The factors affecting the prevalence of echinococcosis in villages and towns were analyzed, and the spatial law of the distribution of echinococcosis was explored, which provided a reference for the prevention and control of echinococcosis. 2. The master's degree thesis of China Center for Disease Prevention and Control.
【学位授予单位】：中国疾病预防控制中心
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：R725.1

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