不同大气温度指标与居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的相关性比较研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 12:30

  本文选题：温度指标　切入点：呼吸系统疾病　出处：《环境与健康杂志》2014年05期

【摘要】：目的比较和分析不同大气温度指标在定量评价气温与人群呼吸系统疾病死亡相关性方面的不同特点及优劣。方法收集北京市H区2004—2008年气象数据、呼吸系统疾病每日死亡人数及同期大气污染物数据,采用时间序列分析中广义相加模型(GAM),通过平滑样条函数控制长期趋势、短期波动、其他气象因素及大气污染物带来的混杂效应,利用GCV值的大小来判断模型拟合程度的优劣,分析比较不同温度指标(日均温,日最高温,日最低温,当日温差,隔日温差)与全人群呼吸系统死亡的相关性。结果半参数模型拟合效果最优指标为日最高温(GCV=1.290);日最高温每升高1℃,发生呼吸系统疾病死亡的RR值为1.021(P0.05)。季节分层结果显示,夏季日最高温、日均温每升高1℃,发生呼吸系统疾病死亡的RR值分别为1.040和1.053;冬季日最高温、日均温、当日温差每升高1℃,发生呼吸系统疾病死亡的RR值分别为1.042、1.033和1.026,均有统计学意义(P0.05或P0.01);春、秋季尚未发现有统计学意义的温度指标。春、夏季最优温度指标分别为日最低温(GCV=1.374)、日均温(GCV=1.516),秋、冬季最优温度指标均为日最高温(GCV分别为1.439和1.500)。结论日最高温与呼吸系统疾病死亡率的相关性最强,是该类研究的优选指标。不同季节各温度指标的拟合优度不同,就北京市的气候特点而言,春、夏季分别优选日最低温、日均温,秋、冬季均优选日最高温。
[Abstract]:Objective to compare and analyze the different characteristics and advantages of different atmospheric temperature indexes in quantitative evaluation of the correlation between air temperature and mortality of respiratory diseases. Methods the meteorological data from 2004 to 2008 in H area of Beijing were collected. The daily death toll of respiratory diseases and the data of atmospheric pollutants in the same period were analyzed by using the generalized additive model in time series analysis. The long-term trend and short-term fluctuation were controlled by smoothing spline function. Other meteorological factors and mixed effects caused by atmospheric pollutants are used to judge the fit degree of the model by using the GCV value, and different temperature indexes (daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily temperature difference) are analyzed and compared. Results the best index of fitting effect of semi-parametric model was: daily maximum temperature, GCVV 1.290, RR value of respiratory disease death occurred at 1 鈩，

本文编号：1695613